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NASA Quakesim Predicts 15 Out of 16 CA Quakes

Posted by samzenpus on from the good-odds dept.

Saint Aardvark writes "NASA's QuakeSim project has successfully predicted15 out of 16 of California's earthquakes with magnitude > 5, including 11 since the map was published in 2002. "So far, the technique has only missed one earthquake, a magnitude of 5.2, on June 15, 2004, under the ocean near San Clemente Island.""

2 of 163 comments (clear)

  1. Reminds me of early Tornado forecasting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    When they first started to try to predict tornados (right before they happened) a lot of people thought it was impossible, but they managed to do it. And this was before they had Doppler 8 million, just with changes in the pressure and such. A lot of people have tried to say predicting earthquakes will be impossible, but I think with enough research and data it will be as easy and predictable as tornados.

  2. Discussion of this on NPR by BrewerDude · · Score: 5, Informative
    The San Francisco NPR station, KQED, had an interesting discussion on this yesterday on their Forum program.

    Check out the archived version here

    From the blurb:

    Following recent seismic activity in California and the threatened eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington State. Forum takes a look at scientific advancements in the study of earthquakes and volcanoes.

    Host: Michael Krasny

    Guests:

    • Dr. Donald Turcotte, professor of geology at UC Davis
    • Dr. Manuel Nathenson, scientist in charge of the Volcano Hazards Team at US Geological Survey in Menlo Park
    • Dr. Roland Burgmann, associate professor at Berkeley Seismological Lab at UC Berkeley Dr. Susan Hough, seismologist at US Geological Survey in Pasadena and author of "Earth Shaking Science: What We Know and Don't Know"