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The Nader Factor
TolkiEinstein writes "The NY Times is running an article on The Nader Factor that details the threat level old Ralph represents to John Kerry. Nader has made it on the ballots of 30 states, and polls show he could influence the outcome of 9 states where the race is a dead heat. While Nader argues that he isn't a spoiler, a Zogby poll suggests that if he weren't on the ballot, 41 percent of his supporters would go to Kerry and 15 percent to Bush. Ironically, this is why some of the prime movers in getting him on the ballot have been Republicans. As per the article, Terry McAuliffe - the democratic party chairman - says he should 'end the charade' of a campaign being kept afloat by 'corporate backers.' Could it be that in this way Nader is beholden to corporate interests? For shame, Ralph."
What I blame Nader for in this election is that his campaign has treated the Green Party almost as badly as Democrats have treated Greens (and Nader): his supporters knocked Cobb off the ballot in Utah and Vermont, and tried unsuccessfully to do so in California. That won't help either campaign, or the Greens in the long run. Some of Nader's supporters seem more interested in tearing down the Green Party and trying to "start over" with a new party, or just fighting over the little power the Left has these days. This infighting pretty much destroyed the Socialists, and many of the same people are now attacking the Greens through Nader's campaign.
Yes, he will 'steal' some of Kerry's votes, but the fact of the matter is that the dems have been extremely active in trying to keep Nader off ballots via legal manuevers, rather underhanded if you ask me; not the sort of thing that I would find inspiring in my leaders.
And in the end, Ralph Nader's democratic coattails will probably help the democrats in the House and Senate more than it hurts them in the Presidency. I voted in 2000 solely so I could vote for Nader, and voted Democrat right down the rest of the ballot. In 2004 it's probably much more important for the Democrats to win big in Congress than it is for them to win the Presidency.
In the upcoming election I will be voting for Kerry
I probably will be too, I like Kerry a lot more than Gore (and I'm in Florida this time around), but without a Democratic Congress Kerry isn't going to be able to accomplish many of the programs he's talking about.
There are other things that are probably more polarizing than either of those. I suspect that except for a few other types of single-issue voters, the election will be decided mostly on whether one thought Bush's foreign policy was reasonable - in the sense of trumping up justification for overthrowing the government of some country that was no particular threat to us.
Gee, you're letting your bias seep through huh?
Seriously, I understand the point of view that says this election will hinge on the Iraq war. I disagree.
With the exception of people who have children in the Persian Gulf, that war isn't a huge concern.
Both major parties are made up of big block of single issue voters.
Abortion voters. The democrats have to take a stance against any restriction of the practice. Republicans have to pass any restrictions they can.
Everyone realizes that the only way the landscape can possibly change with regard to this issue is a change in the balance of power in the Supreme Court. Justices will most likely remain on the bench until a President who is in line with their politics is in office. The way the balance of power will change is if a justice dies while an opposition President is in office.
This issue is so explosive because the people who vote on it WILL leave a party if they feel betrayed.
Gun control voters. This is more of a volitile issue for Republicans than Democrats because once again. The Republicans have to worry about 3-4 million members of their base getting up and leaving the table if they vote wrong in Congress. The Democrats' only real peril with regard to this issue is pissing off too much of the opposition base, like they did in 1994.
Greenies. These are the people who only vote Democrat if there is no other choice. These are the people that the Democrats are trying to steal away from Nader.
Tax Cuts. This is more of an 'icing on the cake' issue than anything else. People aren't going to switch their vote just based on the minor details of a tax cut. Republicans want to cut everyone's taxes. Democrats want to cut taxes for people making under $200k annually. I suppose that only time will tell who's right, but this isn't really anyone's primary issue.
Foreign Policy voters are only slightly more of a factor than Tax Cut voters. It's another 'icing on the cake' issue. People who were leaning away from Bush anyway may use it for the last piece of justification that they need.
LK
"Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
Ready? Ok, basically it's this. Germany doesnt give a DAMN what you "colonists" think. This is about GERMANY voting for a GERMAN president who is sworn in by oath to protect the citizens of Germany. If Germans want to debate who should and should not be president, I'm cool with that. But for a bunch of "colonists" to start telling us German citizens that Hitler is evil is insulting. It doesn't matter who is the president. But when you insult our elected officials, you are also insulting the majority of the German public who voted them into office in the first place.