An Open Source Tipping Point?

jg21 writes "Over at LinuxWorld there's an article arguing that open source will be propelled to market predominance by the same disruptive mechanism that brought Sony, Microsoft, and others to be market leaders at the moment. 'The improbable is possible - leaders have been dethroned in the past,' writes the author, who is also apparently the producer of an upcoming documentary entitled, 'The Digital Tipping Point' to be released in September 2005. The story refers to a corroborating article from South Africa and to Clayton Christensen's Seeing What's Next which backs up this general idea."

Comments

Article in Desktoplinux.com

[at_slashdot]

Desktop Linux has just published this article: The Best Free Desktop Linux . . . and how to make it better

This is a great article that shows what a Desktop Linux could do. It's a great piece for Linux advocates to forward to people who'd like to switch but think that "Linux is way too hard to install and use".

0$ price it's very hard to beat, I expect that the forces of the economy will swipe MS away as soon that people realize that they could do with Linux the same things they do with Windows (only more secure and cheaper) . Good times ahead :)

Will take some time

[einhverfr]

I am a consultant with many small business customers. A few are pondering the use of Linux (I charge more for monthly maintenance of Windows systems because they take more of my time). But there are a few obstacles which completely prevent a few of them from using Linux (these are sufficiently small businesses not to have any dedicated servers).

The largest obstacle is that many of these businesses depend on vertically targetted web sites and programs which may not work on Linux. Yes, we could get many of these to work probable with Win4Lin or Crossover. However, the uncertainty and supportability is an issue.

But other clients of mine are already committing to Linux. In one case, we saved $20,000 for a customer in license fees alone, not to mention the support costs in network simplification by using Linux-based VPN appliances rather than an equivalent on Windows. In another case, we have a very successful Linux desktop deployment. In another case, we have a customer thinking about switching so he doesn't have to pay me to swing by every month to run a spyware/virus scan.

It will happen, but slowly.

Re:Will take some time

[einhverfr]

So what do you suppose would be the turning point for your customers pondering Linux?

How much would have to change or improve for them to decide in a wholesale way to jump ship.

They would need a guaranteed way of running the applications that they require in a supported way.

Let me give you an example. A local insurance agency is a customer of mine. They connect to a terminal server in New York to do most of their work so in theory maybe rdesktop would be a good solution. In practice, it isn't so simple. The server uses propritary and Windows-only software (Simplify printing) to redirect the printers. And they also need to access IE-only sites like Safeco as well as use Windows-only tools such as those for IBQ and Progressive. I could sell them on the Linux solution easily if these problems were solved.


Or do you think that it will continue to go the way it's going now, step by step. A sort of glacier movement, slow but impossible to stop...?

For now. I think that when Linux desktop market share starts to move faster (spurred by adoption by large businesses) that the dam will start to break. With Munich, Brazil, and possibly Paris, this could also start to move faster.

Re:Dear short-term memory editors

[dtfinch]

I don't expect they'll publish any more of Ms. O'Gara's articles. But all the other sites owned by their parent will continue to do so. So the ad revenue will flow.

The LinuxWorld editors tried to apologize, blaming it on the LinuxBusinessWeek editors and mentioning that several LinuxWorld editors threatened to resign in protest. Since they're both owned by SYS-CON, both infact running basically the same site, they're expected to cross publish certain articles.

http://www.linuxworld.com/story/46821.htm

The LinuxBusinessWeek editors on the other hand say they disagree with the LinuxWorld editors about the quality of the article, and that LinuxBusinessWeek stands by that article and look forward to publishing more of Maureen's works. But "We will no longer provide news content to LinuxWorld Magazine's accompanying Web site."

http://www.linuxbusinessweek.com/story/46854.htm

So the ad revenue will still flow to the FUD flingers (parent company), but if the LinuxWorld editors have their way the FUD will stop appearing on LinuxWorld, or they'll resign, or they'll get raises.