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Introducing Asteroid 2004 MN4

Posted by michael on from the hopefully-you'll-hear-nothing-more-about-it dept.

Numerous readers wrote in with bits about a potential asteroid collision: "The recently discovered asteroid 2004 MN4 is currently listed as having a 1/233 chance of hitting the Earth. It is 420 m across and if it strikes the Earth it will release an energy of 1,900 Megatons of TNT (the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, Tsar Bomba had a yield of only 50 Megatons). It is also the only asteroid that currently has a Torino scale value of 2." So, in summary, there's a 1-in-233 chance of the worst disaster in recorded history happening on April 13, 2029, and a 232-in-233 chance of nothing happening. Have a nice day! Update: 12/24 22:14 GMT by M : The rock is now rated a 4 on the Torino scale, or a 1-in-62 chance of impact.

3 of 633 comments (clear)

  1. Maybe we should start terraforming something... by kngthdn · · Score: 0, Redundant

    April 13th, 2029 is a Friday!

    Ouch.

  2. So... by Paiway · · Score: 0, Redundant

    ... when do we start looting stores and rioting?

  3. NASA idiots don't understand probabilities by AxelBoldt · · Score: 0, Redundant
    In all likelihood, the possibility of impact will eventually be eliminated as the asteroid continues to be tracked by astronomers around the world.

    Not in all likelihood. The probability of this happening is 232/233.