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2004 MN4, Even Higher Probability

Posted by timothy on from the keep-your-will-in-order dept.

phreakuencies writes "Worried since the recent post about the MN4 2004 asteroid, I added a bookmark to its 'impact risk' section at NASA. The asteroid started as having a 1/233 probability of hitting earth. Later it raised to 1/63. Daily computations made on 25 Dec raised its chances up to 1/45. Optimists can now say it has a 97.8% probability of missing earth." And Veteran writes " NeoDys offers the 'Orbfit' software package (source code released under the GPL) which can be used to get a pre-release view of the situation with Asteroid 2004MN4."

5 of 524 comments (clear)

  1. Maybe I'm a sick puppy.., by TLLOTS · · Score: 4, Interesting

    ...but I sort of hope it is found to have a much, much higher likelyhood of hitting earth, so much so that's it's almost certain to occur.

    Why? Simply because it would post such a great challenge for humankind. It could well bring much greater cooperation between countries, cooperation of a level presently unheard of.

    Certainly, I'm not hoping it actually strikes earth, merely that people work together in order to stop it.

    Just be glad that Bush won't be the president at the time. If it did hit, in US soil no less, then he'd start pouring billions per month into NASA for the development of spacecraft to fight the alien 'terrorists' who threw that asteroid at America.

  2. Re:Party like it's 2099 by Zocalo · · Score: 4, Interesting
    Talking of the Torino scale, does anyone have any idea at what percentage probablility of impact it would move up to the orange (threatening) section of the scale? As far as I can tell, both the orange and red (impact!) sections are based more on the predicted amount of damage rather than likelihood of a collision, so I'm guessing it's pretty high. Also, assuming that the estimated size and consistency of the object don't change, it looks like an object would not be given two separate orange or red scores. If that's the case then I'm guessing that if MN4 is going to hit us it'll go to five, then eight based on a play with the damage predictor.

    In any case, we have 24 years and it's not *that* big. Plenty of time to nudge it off course with some of those surplus nukes we have lying around if it is going to hit...

    --
    UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
  3. Let's say that the thing will hit by ArcticCelt · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Let's say for a moment it is confirmed that the thing will hit. Then we will have to determine where its going to hit. We know that damages will only be localized so if it is calculated that the asteroid will fall on an area populated by not so industrialized countries I am really curious how the world will react.

    Do powerful countries will prefer to do nothing to avert making a mistake that could possibly send the asteroid on their head?

    What could possibly do a small country in africa if nobody wants to help them?

    --

    Yahh, hiii haaaaa! -Major Kong, from Dr. Strangelove
    1. Re:Let's say that the thing will hit by Zocalo · · Score: 5, Interesting
      Or another possibility: what if it turns out that an impact will be on an industrialised country "Gog", sufficiently far from a political/economic rival "Magog" to offer no real threat to "Magog"? Would Magog dare to offer less than 100% of what it can offer to preventing the disaster, either publically or otherwise?

      To get a clue as to the answers, look at the recent devastating earthquakes in Iran - even though Iran was on his "Axis of Evil", Bush was offering aid almost immediately. Sure, besides the humanitarian side, there is also political capital to be made on such a gesture, but that's by the by. I have absolutely no doubt that if this, or any other asteroid, is going to hit us then every capable nation will be working 100% to prevent the impact, no matter where it might be.

      --
      UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
  4. Re:Party like it's 2099 by NockPoint · · Score: 5, Interesting
    When it is going to hit (if it does) is known down to minutes NOW. That and knowing which way it is coming from allows us to exclude half the planet from worries other than climatic. As someone has already pointed out, that means both NY city and Texas are safe from this rock.

    The uncertainty is a long strip that is 0.018 (see NEODyS) of the Earth's radius wide, and many times the Earth's radius long. Go look at:

    http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/2004mn4b.gif

    If the odds don't go down to zero soon, someone will calculate where the stripe of uncertainty is on the globe. It wouldn't be hard to do.