Slashdot Mirror

← Back to Stories (view on slashdot.org)

2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again

Posted by CmdrTaco on from the duck-and-cover dept.

bfwebster writes "The latest update from NASA now gives 2004 MN4 a 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029. That's a bump up from the 1-in-46 (2.2%) odds given this weekend and almost a 10x increase in probability from the original 1-in-300 odds announced late last week. Interesting times, indeed."

1 of 697 comments (clear)

  1. This is actually a very small rock. by Thapa · · Score: 1, Flamebait

    I'm watching this thing as closely as I can, but I don't think we're as doomed as we look.

    Using an impact calculator that people have quoted in a number of earlier posts, 2004 MN4 (being only .4km wide) will only produce a crater about 4km wide (if it hits land). This is quite small, in fact.

    The Chicxulub crater, left by the rock that killed the dinosaurs, is at least 150km in diameter, theoretically left by a rock 10km in diameter.

    Essentially, unless you're under it or near the tidal wave, I don't think you have much to worry about from 2004 MN4. But now is a better time than ever to realize we need to work on our planetary defences.