2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again

bfwebster writes "The latest update from NASA now gives 2004 MN4 a 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029. That's a bump up from the 1-in-46 (2.2%) odds given this weekend and almost a 10x increase in probability from the original 1-in-300 odds announced late last week. Interesting times, indeed."

Comments

Re:April 13, 2029

[JohnGrahamCumming]

Yes, April 13, 2029 is a Friday.

John.

Re:How long till we know?

[mikejz84]

Space.com says it will take a few months, unless they use Arecibo's radar--which would really help norrow the orbit.

Another link and Impact Effects Calculator!

[iamlucky13]

I found another article discussing the asteroid that isn't slashdotted. Even more interesting though is the Impact Effects Calculator

I ran it through the calculator for a 400 meter asteroid (from the article) made of dense rock (assumed) at 17 km/s and 45 degree impact (suggested by the calculator). I also dropped it in 1000 m of water, as it has a 75% chance of landing in the oceans.

Results

• Impact Energy: 1.23 x 10^19 Joules
• Crater Formed in Seafloor: 2.46 km diameter
• Earthquake: 6.0 on Richter Scale
• Radiant Flux at 100 km: 7.68 times that of sun

Numbers should, of course, be taken with a grain of salt

Well Since We're /.ing the site...

[firew0lfz]

Crazy, I was just checking my bookmark on this when the slashdot article popped up. Anyways..

Here is the wikipedia page explaining the Torino Scale. I still wouldn't worry about it until the thing hit at least a 8 or so. The article gives a nice explanation of what astronomers would do in warning the governments in the event they thought this thing deserved any real attention.

Torino Scale

Re:One in 37

[Viking Coder]

1 in 37! Nice. =)

(Roulette has 18 black, 18 red, and 1 green for those not in the know.)