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2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again

Posted by CmdrTaco on from the duck-and-cover dept.

bfwebster writes "The latest update from NASA now gives 2004 MN4 a 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029. That's a bump up from the 1-in-46 (2.2%) odds given this weekend and almost a 10x increase in probability from the original 1-in-300 odds announced late last week. Interesting times, indeed."

2 of 697 comments (clear)

  1. How long till we know? by John+Harrison · · Score: 5, Interesting

    How long does it have to be observed before we know whether it will hit or not? Will a year of observation give us certainty? The Torino scale is a bit strange, given the way that it combines chance of impact, time until impact, and severity of impact. I would think that a three dimensional scale would be more useful.

    --
    Lasers Controlled Games!
  2. Strange questions.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Ok, we now know the probability of the object hitting the earth. What is the possibility of the object hitting the moon?

    What impact will the earth have if the object hits the moon?