In the Year 2020

An anonymous reader writes "Every 5 years, the CIA funds a detailed forecast of the future 15 years hence. The biggest trend identified in the latest report is the economic and technological rise of Asia."

Comments

India Economy

[Coneasfast]

Something i would like to mention

As the report states, India and China will both be big economic powers partly due to their huge population, but the standards of living won't necessarily be better.

I've been to India 12 years ago and i've been last year, and yes the standards of living have vastly improved, but for it to be at an acceptable level, it definitely won't take another 15 years. My hope is within 50 years (and that's being optimistic).

+5: Anti-Bush Tirade

[goldspider]

OK, trollish subject aside (and yes I believe that's why it was modded up), what makes you believe that anyone else would be any more fiscally responsible?

I'll agree that Bush isn't doing us any favors, but you don't replace one big spender with another and expect things to be any different.

Case in point: Bush is trying to overhaul Social Security and rescue it from the inevitable financial ruin that Bill Clinton predicted in 1998. What are Democrats saying in response? That there is no financial crisis in Social Security, that the problem can be fixed by simply raising taxes.

Let me reiterate: Bush isn't doing this country's finances any favors. But neither would Democrats. The whole lot of them need to be given a lesson on how to spend other peoples' money (hint: sparingly).

2010

[OECD]

It's interesting to look at the (nearer) "2010" one (done in 1996.) I was expecting a laugh, but it's not too bad. Tidbits that struck me:

The "Social Security-Medicare" debate already reverberating throughout the developed world will be acute.

We anticipate genetic engineering fueling a fourth agricultural revolution by the end of this timespan. As in the past, shortages will be man-made.

To compete, businesses will continue to move beyond regional or national perspectives to optimize global trade.

Potential adversaries will attempt to blunt our military superiority in other ways: improving their capabilities relative to their neighbors, and using unconventional and often asymmetric means--ranging from the increased use of terrorism to the possible use of weapons of mass destruction.

The likely course at least through 2010 will be an enlarged NATO serving s the primary vehicle for launching and sustaining "coalitions of the willing."

US-European strategic interests will be buffeted by several contentious issues: differences over -a policy toward Iran and Iraq (where political changes will occur in both countries by 2010); costs of underwriting a Middle East peace; divergent views on the future of Turkey's relations with Europe; and US positions on "fair vs. free trade," extraterritoriality, and the role of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in settling trade disputes.

Re:Missing scenario

[killbill!]

To be honest, as long as the renminbi remains pegged to the dollar, as long as the Japanese Central Bank is buying dollars to slow the rise of the yen vs the renminbi, and as long as European companies are forced to cut into their margins to remain competitive vs the Japanese*, then American consumers won't see too big of an increase.

Oh wait, they are already. OIL PRICES.

Remember, the 1973 oil shock wasn't only in retaliation to Western support for Israel in the Kippur War, but also to make up for the loss of purchasing power since the mid 60's.
I am convinced the recent rise in oil prices is linked to the depreciation of the dollar, and not only to Chinese growth increasing demand faster than reserves are discovered, or insecurity in Russia or the Middle East.

If I remember correctly, since Nov. 2000 the euro's appreciation has more or less matched oil's ($.85 to $1.35, vs $30 to $50 : +60% in both cases).
When arab investors became persona non grata in America after 9/11, petrodollars started getting increasingly invested in Europe (or in China), which fuels the euro's rise over the dollar. The resulting fall of the dollar makes the Arabs painfully aware of the loss of purchasing power they're getting (since they're getting fewer euros per barrel), so they have to improve their prices.
Oh yeah, and they convert their dollars into euros event faster.

So far, American consumers have been protected from the effects of the dollar's depreciation by external factors. However, if China has to increase its prices because of the increase in oil prices, if the Federal Reserve has to increase interest rates, if Japan stops being able to buy those T-bills, or if OPEC suddenly starts demanding payment in euros, American households will feel the heat. Or even be wiped out.

* I'm working at a small German sports car manufacturer. We're selling our entry-level model at a loss in the US because we're supposed to be 20% more expensive than a Nissan 350 Z, but we cannot afford to be twice as expensive...

Re:Plane travel

[Duhavid]

There was a news article a while ago about how the searchers at the terminals were touching people in places they did not feel comfortable with.

One woman complained about a searcher pressing her hand between her breasts.

The GP was taking the issue a bit farther out, but ( IHMO not too far out ). Kids are ( sometimes ) taught to obey, and might not feel at liberty to say "I dont want this". This is ( sometimes ) how child abuse happens ( as I understand it ), so I think the issue reasonable.

( Yes, the presumption is that your child would be going with you, not an unreasonable presumption ).