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MMOG Subscription Charts Updated

Posted by Zonk on from the doing-that-statistics-thang dept.

SirBruce writes "Mmogchart.com has been updated, and Version 13.0 is now online. The charts now include more data for World of Warcraft and EverQuest II. Please keep in mind that this data is still very preliminary and could still change. It is widely believed that many other games have shown a decline in subscriptions as a result of the impact of WoW and EQII, but I have no quantifiable numbers yet for the current subscribers for games such as EverQuest I, Ultima Online, Dark Age of Camelot, and City of Heroes. The full effect of WoW and EQII is not yet visible and probably will not be until February or March."

8 of 27 comments (clear)

  1. What exactly was updated? by _xeno_ · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Not to try and be an ass, but it looks like only three MMORPGs received new datapoints since the last time this was on Slashdot - EverQuest II, World of Warcraft, and Runescape. So this isn't really much of an update.

    Not to mention that the author of the page (and article submitter) mentions that the EQ2 and WoW numbers are "preliminary and subject to change." All in all, this is really a non-story and not really worth a Slashdot story. Even if it is only a Games section story.

    I'd be much more interested in seeing the numbers in a couple of months, to see how the release of new MMORPGs effected other MMORPGs.

    Maybe we should make these MMOG subscription chart stories quarterly instead of monthly, is all I'm saying. :)

    --
    You are in a maze of twisty little relative jumps, all alike.
    1. Re:What exactly was updated? by SirBruce · · Score: 2, Informative

      Hey xeno, don't worry, you're not being an ass. :) The criticism I usually get is much more blunt; yours is actually reasonable!

      However, I will point out a couple of things:

      1. The numbers for Anarchy Online were also modified to more accurately reflect reality (hopefully). Eve Online was also updated, A Tale In the Desert finally got listed, and there were a couple of other minor changes. Also, I added a market share by genre breakdown.

      2. The February/March update(s) should be a lot more informative. Meanwhile, a lot of people have been using my charts to argue EQ2 vs. WoW, and given that new numbers came out for both recently, the current interest level is quite high.

      3. I used to update more infrequently; quarterly was about the average I was managing the past 2 years. But then people complained it was too long between updates! I've gotten some generous donations so I'm trying to give back to the community by updating more frequently.

      Whether or not each new update deserves a monthly slashdot article, well, that's a legitimate question. I think the current interest is high enough to warrant it (I had no idea that the IDGA white paper would be coming out at the same time), but clearly I'm biased.

      Bruce

  2. This seems somewhat suspect... by HaloZero · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The MMORPG chart lists WoW at having 350,000 users, while more than 600,000 copies of the game were sold during the holiday season alone (not including retail during the initial week).

    --
    Informatus Technologicus
    1. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by Snowspinner · · Score: 2, Interesting

      If I recall correctly from reading a message board thread with a DAoC dev a while ago, he claimed that DAoC had a huge rate of boxes sold that never made accounts, accounts that played once and then stopped, often without ever cancelling their subscription, and other such oddities.

      --
      Philip Sandifer's academic website
    2. Re:This seems somewhat suspect... by SirBruce · · Score: 2, Informative

      All of this is quite true. Still, I will admit 350K is nearly the lower end for WoW; in the analysis I state it could be as high as 600K. (EQII reportedly had 85% conversion, which is very high; apply the same to WoW and you'll get 500K.) Still, one would expect them to trumpet passing the 500K subscriber mark and claim they have passed EverQuest in size -- but they haven't. So it makes one wonder.

      It's also important to note that many WoW boxes were bought as holiday gifts, and many were bought by Blizzard or Warcraft-specific fans who had never been willing to try a MMOG before. So it would not be unusual for the conversion rate to be lower because of these factors.

      There's a good chance Blizzard will release another number for WoW later this month or in February, in which case the 350K figure might be more accurate for December.

      Bruce

  3. Re:ToonTown by SirBruce · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I can't believe no ToonTown developer has slipped me numbers yet. :( Industry guesses are in the 30K - 50K range.

    Bruce

  4. Re:Dark Age of Camelot by SirBruce · · Score: 2, Informative

    Mark Jacobs has admitted they are lower, and the concurrency numbers are down over 30%, but exactly how many subscribers have left has yet to be quantified. The 250K number comes from the last press releases.

    Bruce

  5. Re:Lineage? by SirBruce · · Score: 2, Informative

    If you read the Analysis section, you'll find more discussion of the Lineage numbers. But the short answer is, yes, it is very popular in Korea.

    Bruce