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Novell's Race Against Time
DiamondGeezer writes "The Guardian newspaper in the UK reports in 'It's a race against time' that Novell is on a knife-edge financially and competitively, having placed a huge one-way bet in the success of its Linux strategy. But there's no guarantee of success: its revenue from Linux licensing is puny, and it faces a crowded market of Linux distros. Novell may be getting some positive press now that it's gone full tilt for Linux, but let's remember the reasons why: because of mis-steps of its previous management (especially the disastrous acquisition of WordPerfect in the mid 1990s) and its failure to grow its Netware business (with more than a little help from Microsoft), it's now having to re-engineer itself for Linux."
Is Novell deserving of the support that the Open Source Software (OSS) community can provide to increase the odds of success regarding its Linux push?
If so, what can the average Linux user do to help (besides switching to Novell Linux Desktop (NLD) or becoming a shill?)
If not, why not?
What Novell really needs to do is merge unique features from Netware into Linux, and license much of Apple's proprietary code at any price. This will allow applications made for the Mac to compile and run pretty cleanly on Novell Linux, thereby differentiating Novell from the other distros.
Netware didn't just fail "with more than a little help from Microsoft". It failed because (and it kills me to say this), Windows NT was a better product than Netware in just about any way imaginable. I remember when I made the switch in my career from Netware to NT. I can't think of anything that Netware did better than Windows NT. Netware pretty much sucked ass...
I must admit that it was very early in my IT career that I made this switch. Perhaps my inexperience in Netware had something to do with my opinion of it.
I've been thinking for a while, from just before the start of the SCO vs IBM circus, that Novell is getting ripe for being bought out by IBM. Anyone else concurr?
The biggest problem Novell has is attracting the best and brightest software engineers. This is because a lot of Novell engineering is done in Provo Utah. Life in Provo is not for everyone. It is beautiful but it is one of those one company towns. If your job there does not work out then you'll have to relocate for your next job. The cost of living in Silicon Valley is high but a great engineer can find a new high paying job within a matter of days. Provo does not offer that.
While I can't argue much against that statement, I really wish it hadn't been disastrous. WordPerfect has always been my favorite word processing suite, and I wish Novell still owned it, and would give better Linux support than the wishy-washy stuff Corel's been doing.
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I bought Novell shares around the time they announced their acquisition of SuSE. At that time, Novell was shifting its strategy into aggressively supporting opensource projects (SuSE, Mono, KDE, etc). Ever since then, their stock has been going in a downward spiral. I guess this is what happens when you support a company based on what you believe in rathar than what actually sells. Sad.
At the moment in my place of employment, we want to run Debian on some custom hardware (but alas, Debian won't work on it - despite many hack attempts), because we just find RPMs too hard to manage and apt-get + aptitude to ge great.
Employing someone to waste time trying to install Debian on something which cannot guarantee a pay off is not fun, and is a waste of money as well for the customer.
The thing is, the hardware vendor doesn't take Debian seriously (because it's not backed by a company with resources), so there is no driver disk or hardware support.
What I am trying to say is this:- there is a niche here that needs to be filled. There is a need for companies with the ability to back Linux distros, even if just for customer peace of mind. They will pay money for it. So far, only RedHat is being taken seriously commercially IMHO.
There is no "swamped" Linux market, or at least, not in my situation as far as I can tell. Only blimmin' RedHat Linux is supported and will install on our blade server.....
READY.
PRINT ""+-0
So if Apple wants some more serious enterprise apps, all they have to do is aquire Novell in a year...
While I don't doubt that Novell has taken a large risk with playing "the linux card", I don't see them in any immediate danger of financial difficulty.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=NOVL&annual
While their installed base is certainly not what it once was, they have a solid reputation, still significant installed base, and from what I remember, a decent size pile of cash (771,844 at last quarterly report) to fall back on.
In other words, exactly where SCO might have been if they had not made a different sort of bet. (i.e. running a business of making products, selling support and consulting services, etc. Not to start an SCO love fest, but once upon a time they were a well regarded company).
Was not about Wordperfect. It was about Groupwise. Novell still makes a huge amount of money on Groupwise, the WP deal was very much a win for them.
$4.99 novell linux dvd at checkout counter :
best buy ? nope.
frys ? nope.
barnes and noble ? nope.
office depot ? nope.
clearly I am of the opinion that linux can move forward best and fastest via low cost, impulse buy at major retailers.
novell (or?) should attempt this.
One more item for thought: IBM is heavily invested in Novell. I can guarantee you, Novell is going nowhere but forward until/unless IBM gives up on Linux and Open Source technology -- and there's no evidence of this even remotely happening.
Until Microsoft proves it can compete on price and quality, instead of paid "studies" and fabricated "exposes" of competitors, readers would be best advised to avoid their products like the plague.
I was thinking about this the other day after watching the BrainShare video.
All the stuff that will actually increase sales is based on Suse (clustering, Xen, etc...).
Why didn't they try to buy Trolltech instead of Ximian.
I just don't see how Mono is going to help the bottom line in the near term.
Heck, I would've have bought Trolltech, and slapped some proprietary apps into Suse. There's got to be a competitive advantage somewhere, and I don't know how just services is going to give them that.
Suse was already pretty much a KDE distro, and buying Trolltech would have given them two things.
(1) The ability to change the Qt license to a more liberal one.
(2) Bring in the talent of Trolltech that is already accustomed to working with Suse.
KDE/QT still has a superior framework to Gnome/Gtk+, but frankly I see the Qt license being the one showstopper that will push Gnome/Gtk+ into the "standard" desktop category, once Linux on the desktop actually matters.
ROFL. Yeah, right, sure. And rocks fall upward, and the moon is made of green cheese...
I administered Novell and NT both back in the days you're talking about. Netware 3.x beat NT 3.x so badly, on every possible applicable point, not even the most incompetent admin would have ever made the claim you just did with a straight face.
Microsoft PAYED my employer a huge sum to partially replace our Netware server with an NT 3.5 server. That little netware server was keeping the office served so far as email, web gateway, and file and print serving without a problem. NT on a slightly faster machine proved itself incapable of handling the EMAIL ALONE for the same office, and this AFTER having guys from MS fly down to work on it every couple of weeks for six months.
On top of lack of functionality and lack of stability, it was also impossible to properly admin. It was a total POS and everyone knew it. Even the PHBs were totally upfront about it - they knew it was trash. But whenever we had a problem, MS cut a check (or something to the same end effect) to more than cover the losses.
That's how they won. Novel certainly made mistakes, but that doesn't change the fact that their product was vastly superior and defeated on grounds other than technical.
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I found it odd to hear about Windows "N" following reading a day before about Novell and its plans with SUSE/NLD/whatever and it taking on Microsoft Windows with said product(s). Gotta love this Windows N, eh? After all, who is the biggest challenger right now for Microsoft? N! N=Novell.
Nothing like clever naming so the mindless masses are blinded to N=Novell because of Windows N
^^^^ All of the text in this message is in MY opinion and for entertainment ONLY.
Maybe you're right and maybe I'm just afraid (as a programmer) to see the superior KDE/Qt framework go into niche status eventually because of the Qt license.
Somewhat offtopic, but on irc today I heard that some guy that worked at Novell/Suse on KDE is moving on to work at Intel in their "Linux Desktop" division (whatever that means).
Having done some research on Novell about 6 months ago, there's some things that are not pointed out in the article that relate directly to cashflow.
It is true that their share of server sales has dwindled from a high of 80% down to low double digits. You can actually see that the impact of the introduction of WinNT. Over more recent years, the decline is actually due to Linux. What people frequently misunderstand is that this relates to NEW server sales.
What is not mentioned is the actual installed base. In this arena, Novell is huge. IIRC, a study that I saw put it at something like 3 to 5 million machines are running Netware.That's far more than all *nix combined, and was only matched by Windows.
Installed base == support/maintenance/upgrade revenue - ie services revenue. Novell has a cash cow there, that's for sure. Check out their 10Qs. And I should note that all their other 'businesses' - be it identity or ex Collabra or whatever are basically immaterial in comparison to their "software division formerly known as Netware".
But that revenue is still not sufficient. It was clear that if they didn't buy SUSE, they would lose their installed base to Linux for file/print services over time. And BTW, the Linux NEW server sales have been increasing rapidly. I always see that Linux is increasing at the expense of Windows and/or Unix, but never Novell. That is what surprised me most in my travels....
Obviously, migrating existing customers from Netware to Linux doesn't prevent leakage to either Windows or other Linux flavors, but now, they at least have a clear path for customers, and it will probably be the easiest path for their installed base.
Anways, that's my rant. And I wish Novell the best of luck. Successful linux companies will mean even better corporate acceptance.
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Except that's illegal fot a monopoly.
I doubt that matters. It's not really law anyway, because it's open to wildly varying interpretations. Law is objective, anti-trust "law" is subjective.
Really, who would sue? Novell couldn't last that long in court without cashflow. However long they could last would probably just result in a settlement much less generous than that with Sun & MS.
So let's say a state or the feds sue. MS would just drag it out, and since there is no smoking gun, nothing will really happen. What if the states win? What do they do? Anything the states do against MS would just be hitting the stockholders. And by stockholders, I mean the retired people living on diversified investment income. The execs have already made the money from the "anticompetitive" behavior, probably much of it in terms of huge bonuses.
Anti trust law is a mess. It doesn't really accomplish anything. After all, they went after IBM, and what happened? Now we have MS. Nothing was solved.
I'll tell you what REALLY solves the problem. Instead of a state suing, why doesn't it just boycott MS products? Same with the feds. I bet the monopoly would be broken very quickly. Remember, the states are the ones perpetuating the MS monopoly by buying huge amounts of software and introducing it in schools. If California stopped buying, that alone would fracture the market enough to destroy the technology monoculture.
Social scientists are inspired by theories; scientists are humbled by facts.
The directory service is far superior (microsofts current incarnation of this is about where Novels was about '95) and this is an enourmous advantage in a large operation. Many large corporate networks are Novel for this reason already, so obviously if you're in one of those you need it for interoperability as well. You get greater stability, better performance (again, more important in a large operation where it may mean you can do the same job without buying as many servers) and it's a hell of a lot easier to administer properly.
With Novel into Linux now, you can expect it to continue to perform with less hassles in heterogenous environments as well.
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Friends don't let friends enable ecmascript.
Don't expect that from the vendors, but that will certainly come from your local ISP, cable company, etc. They are heavily searching for more services that utilizes the bandwidth and back-end infrastructure they have built over the last years. Therefore centrally managed thin client desktops in the homes is a natural next step. Of course not for the average /. reader, but think about your mums and grandfathers.
It's also the logical next step for integration between those thin clients and video-on-demand plus PVR type applications. See it as the merger between your set-top box and your cable modem. I'm sure that that's coming. And when you can do proper web browsing, email and a little office from your TV's / displays (and now don't think WebTV, but more 1280x768 HDTV), I'm sure many people don't really want to have their own PC anymore. Let someone else do the backups, virus and spam filtering, etc.
Browsers shouldn't have a back button!! It's all about going forward...
Services.
If Novell turns into a huge Linux tech-support company, I bet they'll earn MILLIONS. Or maybe not, but think about it. It can become the #1 company in helping companies migrate to Linux.
Just think about it. With the increasing Linux market, they'll be VERY busy.
Setting up Samba? No problem. Recompiling the kernel? Our staff will go to you. Considering options between software? There we are.
"Novell. The Linux company."
But now, if Novell wants to survive SELLING SOFTWARE, then they should just forget about it. The FOSS is taking everything by storm - so they better adapt the service model (instead of the product model), or die.
I think that the strongest product that novel has is SuSE. SuSE, unlike redhat, offers *FREE* security and bug updates, and allows you to easily mirror their update server with wget/ncftpget or whatever, and point your servers at an internal update host, for FREE, unlike redhat, which charges for RHN. This, paired with the fact that SuSE has the benefit of numerous third party certifications, like IBM, oracle, and mysql - it's a no brainer. I'm really surprised that more businesses didn't move over to suse instead of red hat enterprise. Great on desktops, by the way.
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Not an urban legend. We (IT) lost track of a NetWare 3.x server used by a small (less than 100) department in a large (more than 20,000) entertainment company.
When it was time to upgrade the department's LAN from TokenRing to Ethernet, we couldn't locate this server. The clients had no idea where it was. They only knew that the all-important J: drive on their PC was there before they were.
It turns out that there used to be a janitor's closet behind shelves, and a large desk pushed up against the shelves, that no one in that department had ever remembered being opened. Certainly no one had the key for it. When it was finally opened, there was the 3.x, chugging away without a care in the world. I don't remember what the box was, but I doubt it held more than 16 megs of RAM.
By that time, the company had pretty gone the Microsoft route, and we were all weary of dealing with the christmas lights like nature of a WindowsNT based network. Needless to say, we were amused and more than a little impressed by this little-engine-that-could.
= 9J =
YAST is one of the things that I don't like about SUSE. I'm not a fan of SuSEConfig either. I don't know... but I just prefer the text config files rather than being confined to a UI that someone else designed for me.
SUSE just needs to get corporate buyers to buy them instead of RedHat. There are only (2) distros that I would implement on a mission critical machine. Novell SUSE, and RHEL. Currently I use only RHEL, but I would be willing to consider SUSE.
Now for the zeolots, I'm not saying other distros can't be used on mission critical, I'm just saying without the corporate backing of a major player... (Oracle cert for RH, NetVault cert for RH, etc) Not on my database servers...
btw, I run Fedora FC3 also, just not on mission critical. I could use anything on those machines, but I choose Fedora because it supports the latest and greatest awhile still being pretty stable on most hardware and software functions. (Dell PowerEdge servers, and postfix, mysql, apache, etc)
Obviously, migrating existing customers from Netware to Linux doesn't prevent leakage to either Windows or other Linux flavors, but now, they at least have a clear path for customers, and it will probably be the easiest path for their installed base.
This path thing you talk about is very important. We're a mostly MS shop (lots of databases on MS) but 60-80% of our files services are on NetWare. We've been kicking around getting rid of NW over the last couple of years to simplify things for both our IT department and end users.
Our most recent decision to wait was directly Linux related. Our customers are asking more and more about running our products on Linux and we have a couple of test setups, but nothing major. Our CTO pointed out that IT would have to support this if we went whole hog in that direction and the absolute easiest path for IT to gain experience with Linux would be to migrate our NW servers into OES servers.
We're still on NW and we're moving very slowly on Linux, but NW will stay, for the moment, simply because we can see that migration path and want to have the option of traveling on it. In our case, the Linux-future at Novell is probably the most important difference between us staying a customer and not.
TW