Heavy Japanese Support for Xbox 2
Gamasutra has word that there are already several Japanese game development studios and designers lining up to create titles for the Xbox 2 system. Yoshiki Okamoto, a former producer at Capcom, is quoted in the article as being surprised at the response the new console is getting. From the article: "I've been hearing that some other designers will also be joining. There are a lot of surprises. I find myself saying: 'What, this development studio!? This game!? These people!?'" Commentary on the upcoming console's Japanese future also available at GamesIndustry.biz. Update: 04/07 03:18 GMT by Z : The translations from the original source came from Gamespot.com.
This was the last thing i would expect. Nintendo and Sony are based out of Japan, and MS from USA. I would have expected the GC2 (if it happens) and PS3 to be ultra-popular in Japan while the US (maybe UK?) goes for the XBox2.
We shall see what weirdness ensues.
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More than just the Japanese developers, Microsoft has pretty much been playing all of it's cards right. It hired incredibly bright people and gave them free reign to create the system they wanted to. They created something solid, flexible, with the correct gambles. They didn't sell it as a set-top box, but rather a dedicated gaming console. Except that they're still losing money on them, and they're the size of SUV's, it's a great system. Even the great controller mistake was largely corrected.
I don't think one company can "win" the market. As other people have pointed out, this market turns over every few years. Backwards compatibility, while a nice selling feature, isn't needed because you still have the old console. XBL might be a way to lock people in, but only to the same extent that AOL can lock people in. Plus the market likes to create new gods and tear down old ones. Even if Microsoft plays everything right, after several years they'll naturally lose luster and get kicked out.
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Here are a few problems with some of your arguments.
1) PS2 effectively buried the Dreamcast (my sweet, dear Dreamcast). I would say Sony was pretty serious, but I agree with you that Microsoft did make the game a bit more deadly, no pun intended. Competition is certainly stiffer.
2) IE isn't a good comparison, primarily because it is technically 'free' software, at least in the financial sense. It doesn't compare to the X-box, which is fabricated hardware that the consumer must purchase. Once they beat Netscape, Micro~01 had no incentive to develop IE further, which brings me to your third point and final comments.
3) Yeah, Intel vs AMD = good for customers. However, if one of the companies disappeared, the other would continue marketing and making new chips, because software (or bloatware) continues to demand more processing power. I know I'm heavily simplifying things, but the console market is similar. Developers want to keep pushing the limits of the available tech, gamers want prettier graphics and more realistic bouncing breasts, and this requires newer hardware.
Its all about sales. IE doesn't get developed as much because you don't 'sell' IE at Best Buy. Game studios want to keep selling new games. There are a finite number of X-Boxes that can be sold, thus Microsoft must make X-Box 2, and 3, creating demand and maintaining their bottom-line. The same for game developers. Even if Sony disappeared, we would probably see a new console every 5 years, which is roughly the timeline we see a company roll out its next generation. You don't stop doing business just because the competition is gone, which will never happen, the gaming industry is too lucrative, it rivals the movie industry and in some ways exceeds it.
"I'm worried, though, what happens if Microsoft "wins" the market."
Yea Sony would be so much better.
I worry if anyone wins the market.
Go Nintendo.
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