3 Million in Xbox 2 Sales At Christmas?

Forbes has a look at the upcoming release of the Xbox 2 console, from Goldman-Sachs. Speculation is put forth on the unit's cost as well as how it might do in sales. From the article: "The research firm, which rates Microsoft at 'outperform,' expects Xbox 2 to be available for retail sale in October or November at a retail price of about $249 to $299."

Comments

The XBox Advantage

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The Xbox already has an edge on PS2 with Xbox live, which brings consistency and reliability to online play. Xbox Live is simply better than online play on the PS2. Plus, I'd much rather pay one Xbox live subscription than one for each game that I own, or suffer through inconsistant servers that some game publishers provide for online play. Online play is generally the reason that I buy games instead of renting, playing through them and sending them back. Quality online play is what will sell more games, IMO, and we all know that is where the money is made.
If Microsoft can deliver on some of the promises that it has made, they will position themselves as an even stronger opponent to Sony. A few things come to mind:
Longhorn Live? If a PC gamer can play online against an Xbox gamer, that is a huge feather in the Xbox cap (not to mention a few extra bucks for live subscriptions) when MS gets Longhorn released in '06.
Backwards compatibility. Since they will hit the market first, having a large catalog of original Xbox games to play will help potential buyers become actual buyers (not unlike the PS2).
Ease of use for developers.. The PS2 is notoriously hard to code for. With the Xbox, MS created a developer friendly development environment, which most likely will not radically change for Xbox2. The PS3 on the other hand, is already lagging in this area and stands to be radically different in architecture from the PS2.
Let's not forget that Sony has always overpromised and underdelivered on their claims of processing power and graphics. The Xbox took mostly off the shelf components and created a console with graphics that look better and move faster than PS2 (when comparing the same game on both - IMO). I owned both and my PS2 spent alot of time collecting dust until I sold it (very cheap I might add).