Asteroid 2004 MN4 May Hit Earth After All

ControlFreal writes "Asteroid 2004 MN4 was introduced earlier on Slashdot, and although scientists are now fairly certain that is will miss earth on April 13th, 2029, the modification to its orbit caused by Earth's gravity may still cause an impact one or a couple of orbits further down the road, the Times reports; the impact probabilities in 2035, 2036 of 2037 will not be known until the exact modification to its orbit is known; in 2029, that is. By then it may be too late for effective counter-measures. An impact would cause an energy release equivalent to about 1 Gigaton of TNT (~4e+18 Joule), and while that won't cause a massive extinction event, it causes widespread devastation. More info on 2004 MN4 can be found here and here."

Comments

NASA's impact risk summary

[Aspasia13]

The following NASA page contains an impact risk summary of several near-earth object:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

Note that this one is in the top three, but with due respect to Douglas Adams, "Don't Panic" appears to be in order.

Actual energy yields:

[product byproduct]

0.865 gigaton for 2004 MN4 impact
vs
32 gigaton for Indian Ocean quake/tsunami, 2004

Re:Actual energy yields:

[imsabbel]

Difference:
The energy of the MN4 impact would be delivered into the athmosphere, a VASTLY less stable enviroment than the earth mantle.
Not to mention dust|chemical alteration problems...

Re:Good!

[AKAImBatman]

without some new propulsion technology i doubt even by 2029 we will have this option.

New propulsion technology? You mean like Nuclear Pulse, Nuclear Thermal (also in Trimodal for low atmospheric work), Nuclear Salt Water, M2P2, and hundreds of other mature, semi-mature, or proposed methods that we haven't used because it's "too damn expensive to get off this rock"?

Propulsion is *not* the problem.

Re:Good!

[delong]

The problem with those designs is legal - the US, Britain, and (through the former USSR) Russian are prohibited by the Limited Test Ban Treaty and the Outer Space Treaty from exploding nuclear devices in space. That prohibition may also cover engines like Nuclear thermal if it releases radiactive material. I'm all for nuclear propulsion, but those pesky international treaties get in the way.