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MMOG Market Mutterings
In the past few days there have been several new developments in the Massive Gaming market. Jessica Mulligan's departure from Turbine now has an end destination, with the announcement that she'll be the executive producer for Nevrax's Saga of Ryzom. In a swashbuckling tie-in, Disney announced they'll be adding to their Massive Gaming portfolio, with a Pirates of the Carribean MMOG joining Toontown Online sometime next year. The always excellent CNN Money column Game Over has word that Sony Online is planning a new Action MMOG, a possible strategy title, and some new non-mmog titles. From the article: "Though the numbers for massively multiplayer games aren't bad, they remain a niche in the gaming industry. To expand SOE's potential audience, the company will soon announce smaller puzzle games for two and four players. While those games won't be massively multiplayer or have any sort of persistent world, it's not out of the question for the long term." Finally, there are many stories over on Gametab discussing the "I'm cancelling because of the WoW Honor System" thread on the official World of Warcraft boards. They were likely sparked by this Kotaku post about the thread. I just want to put in my two cents and state that this isn't news. Forums are not an accurate way to get a picture of a game's user base. Doom may be coming to Blizzard's game, but the subscriber charts are the only real way to know for sure.
If I were a statistician and cool I might have some kind of real data to suggest that every new product endures some kind of fallout after the initial enthusiasm. But since I am neither a statistician or cool, I'll just suggest it without the data in an uncool way:
New TV shows always seem to have a drop-off in ratings, a cliff in the number of watchers. If the show is decent and watchable, then it'll climb from there at a steady rate. I have no doubt that Blizzard in their infinite wisdom foresaw this, and is probably bidding good riddance under their breath. If WoW is worth its weight in gold (get it, gold?), then it'll begin to slowly accumlate more users through word of mouth while at the same time perfecting the game for upper-level players.
You DO NOT have to PVP.
The reason the MMORPG is a nich genre is because nobody in their right mind is going to subscribe to more than possible two titles at a time, whereas most people wouldn't think twice about buying another FPS, even if they already own a few.
> For any MMORPG to really succeed in keeping
> it's fanbase happy it will have to have
> constant expansion.
I suggest that in order to force the playerbase to progress, the world must not only constantly expand, but constantly be destroyed. If you don't kill off the old areas, people get bored with them.
If the world could be generated algorithmically, and areas could "expire", previously expired areas could be resuscitated at later times and reused. Consider your average text MUD: instead of having 400 areas, have thirty, and every day just remove the oldest and tack in a new one. It would take slightly more than a year for an expired area to reappear, at which time it would be new and interesting again. Couple this with a system where everyone can adventure in the same areas (instead of having level-based difficulties), and it could keep people engaged for a very long time.
Just an idea.
Microsoft cheerleader, blue flag waving, you got a problem with that?
I'm not a player and that link doesn't lead to any information I can use ... can someone explain the problem?
Give me a break. These people who are "quitting" (yeah, sure) are all people who consciously CHOSE a PvP server and are now complaining that they can't quest because people are participating in PvP. Here's your sign.
This will have zero impact on the big picture.
"Forums are not an accurate way to get a picture of a game's user base."
/pizza command.) Releases in other countries. Weekends. College breaks. Successful advertising campaigns in specific markets. Holidays. So, subscriber numbers aren't the sole metric of a game's approval rating here.
I find the OP's logic flawed... Accurate or not, a discussion forum is the best way to hear the opinions, rants and ideas of a broad variety of players. Excuse me, I mean "user base." You can even (gasp!) participate, and interview the players there to find out what their experience in one area or another has been.
If there's a large amount of complaint threads started by unique forum-goers, then that's an indication of a problem. Not every whiney kid who doesn't like how his shield looks slightly different in one corner after the recent patch (Oh Noes!! I quitzor!) is worth listening to and debating with, but when major gameplay mechanics change, forums usually light up with both pro and con threads. There is always a useful discussion to be found if you're willing to put up with all the whining.
If subscriber numbers fluctuate because of a change, that's great, but the reality is that the majority of players keep their subscriptions if they are unsatisfied with one aspect of the game. Most people just avoid the one thing that they don't like and get on with the game. What causes rises in subscriptions other than good decisions? Promotions at stores. In-game promotions. (See Ragnarok Online's recent double-exp weekend and increase in free trial length, FFXI's come-back campaign, and EQ's
Go ahead and call me out on this post if you like, but back it up... I'd like to know if my head's on straight or not.