Next Generation Not Official Until PS3

Gamespot has word that a Wedbush Morgan analyst has advised investors to hold off on throwing money at the gaming market, because the rapid growth prompted by the next generation consoles may not materialize until the PS3 launches late in 2006. He also makes some other forecasts for sectors of the gaming market. From the article: "Elsewhere in the memo, Pachter predicts that console and PC sales will finish the year up 10 percent over 2004, that a price cut for the redesigned PlayStation 2 will be enacted 'no later than fall,' and that the PlayStation Portable and Nintendo DS will have similarly successful years, moving 3.5 million and 3.6 million units, respectively."

Comments

Re:Did Sony fund this?

[demondawn]

The problem with Microsoft, with the XBox especially, is that they didn't cater to the Japanese market. While I will certianly grant that there are good games coming out of the U.S. houses, now moreso than ever, the majority of console games are still translations of Japanese titles. As long as Microsoft doesn't cater to the Japanese market, they will suffer the "less titles" fate, and possibly relive the one-trick horse lifestyle it had for a long time with Halo. Certianly there were other games for XBox (and even other excellent titles), but for the longest time, everyone only knew the XBox for Halo. A good strategy for Microsoft could be partnering with anime production companies. Anime is not only a staple of Japanese entertainment, but extremely hot in the U.S. right now. DBZ aside, there is more demand for anime-based games then there are games in the U.S., and this is a niche market that Microsoft could clean up in on both sides of the Pacific. Microsoft has to also accept the idea of the throwaway title, something very hard for them to swallow. Because the business model for the XBox was making money on the software, the price of games always remained relatively high. Some PS2 games, by contrast, shot down quickly in price. (Look at the Greatest Hits series.) Furthermore, lots of Japanese titles cater to niche markets, and if Microsoft wants to be a success in Japan (a HUGE gaming market) they need to embrace these niche developers. These companies make games like "Super Kanji Quiz 2000" and "Makoto-chan's Wonder Kitchen" that like 10000 people buy, yet the companies that make them are small enough that they still turn a profit. Mist Walker and Sega are powerful additions to the XBox lineup...I'm especially excited to see what Mist Walker will come up with (and how Square Enix will fare without Hironobu Sakaguchi's creative direction.) I think in the end it really does come down to the games and not the hardware. There are games for the Super NES/Super Famicom that are still incredibly fun to play. Has there really been a better puzzle game than Tetris? (I've heard Lumines for the PSP comes close.) And there have been games with great graphics and absolutely atrocious gameplay for modern consoles. For many people, the decision to buy a game console will be based on "does it have the games I want to play?"

Yeah Right

[magnus_1986]

This guy does not know that he is talking about. Agreed that the gaming market will (theoretically) be busting at its seams after the release of the next generation of gaming consoles but the hardware is not the main revenue generator, its the software. Look at all the quality games that have come out recently and are coming out, ratchet: Deadlocked, Jak X Racing, Sly 3 etc. Not to leave out Age of Empires 3 (yes, i know it is on the PC), gamespy has wonderful previews, interviews, hands-ons and whatnots here
Not to mention the ongoing lukewarm sales of PSPs and DSes. The market is still making a huge profit, period. And anyone who invests in this is in for getting a little richer.

What did the sony spokesman said?

[AzraelKans]

...I mean "business analyst"

Jokes aside, it does make sense, Xbox had (really) bad sales in Japan and theres little to indicate that will change to a point where the xbox 2 becomes japan top console (in MS dreams perhaps), and then on the other hand Nintendo next console just doesnt sound promising enough, we know little about it, but what we know is old hat tech (hard drive, wi fi, gyroscope controls) and is unlikely for it to be the console wars winner.

So theres a good chance of Sony winning the console wars again. Not because its necesarily better, but due to its competitors not beating it in its own game: the Japanese market and the huge array of japanese developers and fanbase behind it. I mean, Right now MS is celebrating just because they have one of the creators of FF in the payroll, while Sony has FF as a pseudo exclusive franchise.

Theres a chance that xbox2 might come second in Japan but it depends on Nintendo next gen performance. we shall wait and see.