Firefox Growth Slowing?

ninja_assault_kitten writes "Silicon.com has an interesting article on the apparently slowing growth of Firefox. To quote the article, 'The slackening of Firefox's growth could mean that the browser has converted a substantial proportion of its natural constituency, thought to be early adopters and the technically savvy. It could also show that the browser's widely publicised security flaws have begun to undermine the foundation's argument that people should switch from IE to be safer.' One thing's for sure, with the release of 1.0.3 and now 1.0.4 we can probably expect to breach the 80 million download mark shortly."

Comments

Firefox is entering an already saturated market

[El Cubano]

It could also show that the browser's widely publicised security flaws have begun to undermine the foundation's argument that people should switch from IE to be safer.

Um... I don't think that's it. While the security flaws might be causing some to think twice, the real issue is market saturation. There does not exist a desktop computer sold in the last 10 years that didn't come with a web browser. They are essentially entering a 100% saturated market. Nonetheless, I think their accomplishments are stunning.

Re:Firefox is entering an already saturated market

[globalar]

Exactly. For a given user at a given instant, the browser market is a zero-sum game. I can only post to /. with one browser a time. Therefore, the question of growth is misleading.

We need to measure marketshare in relation to the rise and fall of other browsers. Unfortunuately, to do this we need to distinguish individual users in a series of samples for each one. We're gauging this by downloads and server logs from a few sample groups. These numbers could be wildly inaccurate.

Also, it's been only a week since the "big" Firefox exploit and the patch has already come (well, the new version anyway). It hasn't been long enough to judge whether or not this alleged impact is from security concerns. Further, we can't tell if the numbers we recieve now are from users who know about the security implications or not.

In fact, we can only guess why users choose one browser over another. We only assume their choice makes any sense. This is all a guessing game with a few numbers.

Firefox users blocking WebSideStory?

[A8bbNjwk]

From TFA, "Website measurement and marketing firm WebSideStory said"

Could it be that Firefox users are blocking marketing firm WebSideStory's tracking images? These guys are just as evil as DoubleClick in assembling a massive database of information on web users' browsing history. Wouldn't ignorant IE users be more likely to allow WebSideStory to track them?

Re:How many unique downloads?

[bad_fx]

meh, this comes up in every firefox discussion. Yes, no doubt many people download firefox more than once. But there are also those of use who carry it on a usb key\cd\share\whatever and install it multiple times from a single download (I do so myself.) So what's your point? The fact is number of downloads, while no doubt not accurate, are still a good indication of the popularity of it.

Also, for anyone who thinks updates of firefox count as another download (as someone always seems to bring up in these discussions as well), they don't.

Re:How many unique downloads?

[switcha]

lies, damn lies, statistics..

and disingenuous posters

I'm pretty sure all those downloads(+20 of them) count in on that 80 million.

And so what? A download total number (used for marketing) is essentially used as a "vote of confidence". If you liked the browser enough to not only install each version as it came out, but install each of those on multiple machines, then Hell Yes it's a "vote of confidence" and should count towards the Total Number.

I use Safari, and could really give shit about how many downloads Firefox, Mozilla or frickin' IE get. What I do know is that you're trying to somehow dilute the legitimacy of the number of downloads when your very multi-downloads were an endorsement of the quality of this product.

Re:apathy

[friedmud]

People that say the "taskbar is my tabs" make me laugh.

Seriously... try some tabbed browsing... even if you just buy an addon for IE... you should really try it.

Using the taskbar makes a mess when you are doing more than just browsing the web. All of your websites get mixed in with your regular programs. Tabbed browsing keeps everything nice a neat. You can also browse a lot faster (Run down slashdot middle clicking on the interesting links then just close off tabs as you read them... much better than click a link... read.... click back... click a link... read).

Just try it already.

Friedmud

Re:How many unique downloads?

[Gordo_1]

With Firefox, updates are full downloads. While it may be a vote of confidence to you, to most people it's just another way to lie with statistics.

Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but for it to be lying, wouldn't they have to say something like x million unique *users* rather than downloads? They call it a download because there's no easy way to differentiate unique users without forcing people to register or something... even then the statistics wouldn't be perfect.

Re:Well, maybe

[zerocool^]

Hold on, let me go ahead and show you why firefox is better.

Step 1.) Open firefox.
Step 2.) Press Control-T.

Here's another test
Step 3.) Go to www.cnn.com
Step 4.) Open internet explorer.
Step 5.) Go to www.cnn.com
Step 6.) Count the popup windows.

Seriously, man. Have convictions. I do desktop support and network administration for a living, and I can tell you, with almost absolute certainty, users that use Internet Explorer will get spyware. Users that use Internet Explorer will get popups.

Firefox has a vulnerability. So what? The honeymoon is over, as you say. Now it's time to play the lesser of two evils. Now it's time for clothespin voting. Pick which one you think is best for you and your end users. If neither are perfect, pick the one that stinks less. And Lord Knows what's in opera. If you're concerned that firefox's holes weren't showing up before because few people used it, MAN, opera is not for you. I'd take the monster I know (open source) over the monster I didn't (opera).

Be pragmatic. Firefox doesn't have Active-X install popups constantly bugging users to install MyWebSearchToolbarAndAgreeToOurTermsAndConditions. Firefox instead has a way to only accept cookies for the origionating website. Internet explorer still has 80 holes for 6.x according to Secuna, 19 of which are unpatched, while firefox just released a patch in a couple of days.

Don't jump overboard just because no browser is perfect. Some are closer than others.

~Will