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Laptops Outsell Desktops
wintermute1974 writes "According to a new report by Current Analysis, laptops have overtaken sales of desktops for the first time in computing, ever. Figures are for the U.S. market, but presumably this is part of a world-wide trend." From the article: "Notebook prices fell 17 percent during the past year while desktop prices dipped only 4 percent. Some of the features common in most notebooks are longer-lasting batteries, CD burners and wireless capability."
I would guess that a significant amount of this is due to the increasing number of colleges (and even some highschools) that require students to have laptops.
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So that your computer goes with you but when you need the space and larger screen etc you have it. With wireless you don't even have to mess around with hooking up a crap load of cables. Wireless mice and Keyboards already exist and it wouldn't take that much to create a wireless display system.
I really wonder if wireless interface systems could get ubiquitous enough that you could more or less forgoe the full key board and mouse on the laptop entirely and just make a mobile processing memory unit say the size of a cell phone. Wirelesss interface stations would be all over the place and you could browse the systems in range and log onto yours.
One idea I like about that is being able to test drive systems at a store before you buy it. Wonder if that new monitor has fast enough refresh ? Enough resolution ? Just attach it to the system on your hip and run a favorit movie/game etc... How about the sound quality of those speakers ? How about wondering if that new system will do what you want ? Access files on your current system while demoing a new unit with similar periphials you have at home. Have an automatic interface with your cars computer... no more dealer visits for codes or wondering what tripped the 'check engine' light.
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Laptops are still too slow compared to desktops, especially the hard drives. Laptop drives are not only slower, but you cannot get the same large sizes and the prices are far higher. Then there is the issue of graphics cards. Laptops generall have poorer graphics cards with lower memory. You can put together a far cheaper desktop with good components than you can get in a laptop. Most of the lower end laptops have crappy video with shared memory; they get too hot and have at most 3 hours of battery time. Oh and then there is the problem with the tiny screens. As a programmer, I cannot look at any screen smaller than 17" for a long time. Also, most of those lower end laptops only go to 1024x768 (I need at least 1152x864). These limitations may be OK for Joe User, but I don't think more tech savvy people or especially geeks could put up with them.
I personally have had the "same" computer for about 4 years. I call it the "same" computer because I have changed different parts at different time to keep it current. You cannot do that with a laptop. My laptop is 2 years old and is not "bad" (1.7GHz P4, 512MB, 40GB), however I litterally have not used it for the past year. It just sits in my laptop bag on the floor of my office. After one year the battery died and cannot hold a charge so I can only use it pluged in. I don't feel like spending 100+ on a battery when I can spend that money on something else.
If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land,
it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy. -James Madison
1. Low-end desktops suck so bad, I wouldn't buy one if someone points a gun to my head. Just go to Circuit City or Best Buy and look at them. Do you want to buy this crap?
2. I'm writing this lying on the couch. There's no going back to desktop once you go completely wireless. The only desktop I have is iMac G5, but that's only because I need a good display for digital photography, and iMac display is top-notch. If Apple puts decent panels into the next crop of their laptops, this iMac may go to ebay.
I haven't had any durability problems with my 12" 900MHz iBook G3. I constatly throw the thing around (in my backpack into my car etc.) and have abused the hell out of it, and the only thing wrong with it is one of the little rubber feet fell off. I've had this laptop for about 2 years or so. My Sony laptop on the other hand...it was too big/fragile to treat to treat it like I do my iBook.
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I used to work with laptop developers, so know their problems.
Laptops are not any less endurable than desktops, it is just they get thrown around a lot more. A workstation SCSI disk is very fragile, but you dont throw it the backs of cars, kick it under the seat of the airplane in front etc, etc. Furthermore, vendors dont like unrelaible laptops; the annualized failure rate (AFR) makes the difference between profit and loss on warrantied systems.
What has happened is that the trend towards consumer-centric laptops has eliminated much of the exchangable-IDE drive design of the past. These all-in-ones are robust as they are mechanically simpler. The other big trend is that with two main ODMs in taiwan doing much of the work, a greater level of expertise has built up into doing quality designs.
Now, for an annedote of amusement:
When the first thin-and-flat laptops came out, the AFR went up. This was tracked down to people dropping their laptops while trying to lift them out of bags/briefcases one handed, and losing their grip. The older laptops were so fat and heavy they could be lifted two handed, but the new ones were thin and light enough to be one handed -only nobody had thought of this when it was designed
If you look at today's laptops, they normally have grippy texture on the top and bottom, or some features on the batteries to provide a better handgrip. This is to eliminate the problem.
That's an amusing story but it shows the problem: a robust laptop is not an intel chipset in a box. It is a system designed with ergonomics in mind too.