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Shuttles Can't Finish Space Station

Doug Dante writes "The shuttle can't make the 28 flights now planned before it retires in 2010, according to Dr. Michael D. Griffin, the new administrator of NASA. It can only do about 15-23, leaving 5-13 planned missions to alternate lift vehicles. NASA is expected to consult space station partners on alternatives once they are approved by the Bush administration. Should the Space Shuttle be cut loose?"

40 of 237 comments (clear)

  1. Well, ummmm....... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Is all I gotta say.
    They need to junk those things and buy shiny brand new ones, with lot's of chrome, some bigger thumpers, and an eminem logo custom painted on the fuel pod,yo.

  2. Let it run it's course. by Adrilla · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Why cut it loose, let it complete the missions that it can, then retire it in a timely fashion, just because it can't do all that is necessary isn't a cause dismiss it entirely.

    --

    "Plans are for fools! Oglethorpe, the plutonian (Aqua Teen Hunger Force)
    1. Re:Let it run it's course. by Gherald · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And meanwhile, start building a better space shuttle.

      We spend all these billions on defense... if we were to scrap 1 or 2 of the least useful weapon systems, we'd have pleny of money to build a new shuttle and either colonize the moon or send someone to mars.

    2. Re:Let it run it's course. by ciroknight · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Why not scrap 5 of the lowest success rate programs and do both at the same time. For that matter, set up a few more launch sites so we can have more than two shuttle crews in space at a time. Having more hands on deck to build ISS could never hurt.

      But, it's a pipe dream. Our government has no interest in space while the war on terror is still in vogue.

      --
      "Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the President to explain to us what the exit strategy is." G.W.Bush
    3. Re:Let it run it's course. by jonwil · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The US government hasnt really cared about space (or manned space flight specifically) probobly since apollo 17 left the moon.

    4. Re:Let it run it's course. by mothlos · · Score: 2, Insightful
      It should be cut loose because the value of the missions that are performed on the space station are some of the lowest value for the money spent on them.

      The space station was never about the stuff that actually happened onboard, but about building scientific bridges with Russia. I think that at this point, after they let our guys re-write their economy that getting astrophysicists and exotic engineers to communicate isn't as valuable as it once was.

      Right now its best shot at life is as a rescue vehicle in case of damage to a vessle which prevents reentry and it can already do that job pretty well if not as it is, with a couple more service trips.

      The space program in general might be an interesting R&D venture, but I'd rather see my tax dollars going to research to find cheaper, more efficient water purifying techniques, or treatments to stop the spread of AIDS, or perscription drugs, or (ad. nauseum). The space shuttle is just more on the extreme end of wasteful space missions.

    5. Re:Let it run it's course. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They didn't care about it back then either. It was just politically opportune given the whole americo-russian conflict.

  3. Junk the Shuttle -- and ISS while you're at it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    'm sure many will disagree, but the cost of the shuttle program is horrendous, and NASA's insistence on using it has led to some cataclysmically stupid decisions. One example: the ISS (which is an utter joke compared to Skylab or Mir) was placed into a rapidly-decaying orbit not because that was a good idea (it isn't) but because the shuttle could get there.

    Most of the satellites that are "launched" by the shuttle suffer from the design constraint that they have to fit into the friggin' bay AND have room for the accompanying boosters that will put them into their real orbit once the shuttle lets them out. Again, the shuttle can't go high enough for real deployment.

    The idea of capturing and reparing satellites is inherently absurd; most aren't where the shuttle can get 'em and the total cost of the program utterly dwarfs the expense that would have been incurred had they said of the Hubble "Well, we screwed it up...build another one and get it right this time."

    The safety record sucks. After Challenger Richard Feynman put the probability of a fatal accident at one in fifty. So far, NASA's on the money and the nature of the shuttle is such that if someone dies, everybody dies.

    Lest I be misunderstood, I understand the romantic and scientific appeal of manned space flight, of the visceral sense of satisfaction we can have as a species when we look up to the skies and say "We live there." I'm a strong proponent of that. I also recognize the complaints that the money spent on that is money not spent on (feeding the hungry, housing the homeless, inoculating the sick, fill in your pet cause). The manned space program is hellishly uneconomical and a great deal of that can be laid at the feet of the shuttle program.

    It's a white elephant without a mission, a bastard child of a spacecraft and an airplane which like most gadgets that try to do two fundamentally different things does neither well. Its payload capacity compared to heavy-lift rockets is a joke, it's barely capable of crawling out of the atmosphere, it's presented a tremendous constraint to the rest of the space program by forcing many missions to be less than they could have been in order to be shuttle-doable, and it bears repeating that every fifty flights it kills everyone on board.

    It's time to ground the shuttle fleet permanently. Space isn't going anywhere. Stop pouring the hundreds of millions of dollars into the shuttle program and pour them into a new design effort. Slashdot is full of niggers. Scrap the silly "space-plane" concept and develop a family of lifters and craft that _can_ be used for many things but don't back NASA into a corner that forces them to use it for all missions. Make crew safety an inherent feature (recognizing that there are tradeoffs and that getting out of the gravity well is a fundamentally dangerous activity). Stop throwing good money after bad on that trinity dies ISS as well, and use the collective resources of the two programs to start over. It's not true that the second design is always better than the first (see again ISS and Mir/Skylab) but you're wise to play those odds.

    Let's do it over. And do it right.

    1. Re:Junk the Shuttle -- and ISS while you're at it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      Stop pouring the hundreds of millions of dollars into the shuttle program and pour them into a new design effort. Slashdot is full of niggers.

      A subtle troll? A troll nontheless...

    2. Re:Junk the Shuttle -- and ISS while you're at it. by Lucractius · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Slashdot is full of niggers. Scrap the silly "space-plane" concept and develop a family of lifters and craft that _can_ be used for many things but don't back NASA into a corner that forces them to use it for all missions. Make crew safety an inherent feature (recognizing that there are tradeoffs and that getting out of the gravity well is a fundamentally dangerous activity). Stop throwing good money after bad on that trinity dies ISS as well, and use the collective resources of the two programs to start over. It's not true that the second design is always better than the first (see again ISS and Mir/Skylab) but you're wise to play those odds.

      before you bullshit on space planes learn to understand the difference between the shuttle and a real space plane.

      firstly a real space plane doesnt have to carry tons of liquid O2 on board involved in getting it up the the altitude it NEEDS that o2 at. it just hast to carry the O2 for getting from that altitude up to orbit.

      Its far more efficient than a rocket to use a spaceplane. WHEN DESIGNED PROPERLY

      and the ISS isnt a joke. Its just being made a POS by beaurocracy. Personaly i think anything we put up there should STAY up there and keep adding on. Old and feeble or not. Skylab 1 and 2 and 3 and Mir and all the Saylat stations AND the ISS would have made one pretty damn big aglomerated space station by now. If we only sacrificed parts when they became absolutely neccessary and then also chose to build around them using them as storage areas or even just balast weight on the orbit. Its still a better long term plan than this "disposable" plan people seem to advocate. If the space shuttles dont wind up retired as permanant attached modules on whatever space station is up there im gonna be mighty pissed.

      --
      XML - A clever joke would be here if /. didn't mangle tag brackets.
  4. Bring back Energia! by m50d · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Seriously, the Russians must have some form of heavy-lift capability, if not currently operational then one they can get out of mothballs fairly quickly, no?

    --
    I am trolling
    1. Re:Bring back Energia! by raptor_87 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Even if the Russians don't (or can't) bring back Energia, their Proton boosters are among the most powerful in use (beaten only by the new Delta-IV Heavy and very arguably the shuttle), and surprisingly cheap.

    2. Re:Bring back Energia! by Richard_at_work · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I agree, the Russians have the knowhow on how to construct space stations without the Shuttle - it will be more than likely that the Russians will be the ones to finish the station, even if its a reduced one. Unless of course, the ISS was designed specifically with the Shuttle assembling it in mind, and its impossible to shift that capability to other means - if thats the case, the person who decided that should be shot.

  5. Shuttle C? by raptor_87 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Is there any chance that a few (unmanned) shuttle C flights could be used to launch the remaining pieces of the ISS? Or would it take too much time&money to build a few shuttle C orbiters? =/

    1. Re:Shuttle C? by Sergeant+Beavis · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Actually removing the human element would be a huge benefit. That alone saves several thousands of pounds in the people, the life support systems, and the habitation area.

      Maybe I misunderstood you, but the Shuttle C isn't an unmanned shuttle. It isn't a shuttle at all. It is a cargo pod strapped to the External Tank and the boosters. There are no wings, which saves a lot of weight. It's pretty much a flying cargo bay that will burn up on re-entry. The original shuttle C plan was to house the shuttle main engines (SME) in a pod that eject from the cargo container and re-enter the atmostphere for reuse. A newer design, that Administrator Griffin is interested in, would mount the cargo on the top of the ET and put engines under the ET. Only the SRBs would be reusable. The lift capacity would be HUGE.

      --
      There is nothing inherently safe about liberty. That's why so many people died protecting it.
  6. The Way to Go by PakProtector · · Score: 2, Interesting

    What we need to do is establish a base on the moon.

    It would require reinvention of heavy launch capabilities, such as Saturn V rockets (which embarassingly, the blueprints for which were 'lost' in a NASA 'housecleaning' exercise) to get material and personnel onto the moon.

    We will need shelter, which could be domes on the surface, or domes which could be buried or half-buried in the lunar surface to provide extra protection against Radiation. We will also need the ability to grow food, such as a greenhouse, for the personnel. While the greenhouse is being constructed they could live off of packaged food.

    Or we could simply build the base by robot remote control and send people there when it is done.

    The base would have two (three) primary purposes. Lastly, it would be to see if we can actually live in such low gravity well, and how to counteract detrimental effects to the human body. Secondly, research: What exactly is on the moon? What materials are there that are not present on earth (Helium from the interstellar wind for fusion), and are they useful? Fistly, however, the true purpose of a moon base would be to mine materials from the Moon itself that could be used in the construction of spacecraft which can neither be built nor launched from the surface of the earth, due to the High Gravity Well, and the manner of propulsion.

    Using such a base on the moon, it would be possible to construct an Orion Class Spacecraft either in Lunar Orbit at one of the Lagrange Points (can't remember which one), or on the Lunar Surface, as it could simply blase off from there.

    In other words, the moon will be the key to the Solar System.

    Now if we could only get off our collective asses.

    --

    Edward@Tomato - /home/Edward/ man woman
    man: no entry for woman in the manual.
    "Qua!?"

  7. Christ yes! by william_w_bush · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Jesus let this $1B a launch albatross sleep in the deepest oceans. We spend more maintaining and compensating for its way overbuilt and ancient design than we do on the missions it's sent on. That and it's starting to get the smell of the old carnival ride "death trap", which no matter how many times you hose out, still smells funny.

    Please, let this abomination of attempted Reaganomics and the Cold War die and stop sucking away our already pathetic space budget. The space shuttle has been the biggest obstacle to our conquest of space for the last 25 years, and that's just sad.

    p.s. what moron designs the next generation space vehicle that is so advanced it cannot go to the moon or basically do much of anything besides flop around in orbit for a few days? Do we also design submarines that can't go into the ocean?

    --
    The first rule of USENET is you do not talk about USENET.
    1. Re:Christ yes! by pjt48108 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The space shuttle has been the biggest obstacle to our conquest of space for the last 25 years, and that's just sad.

      Actually, the biggest obstacle has been not the shuttle, but the myopia of our leaders and the people who elect them. There is a pervasive belief that we can't spend another dime on space travel, exploration, and development.

      If this nation REALLY wanted to move beyond the shuttle, there is money for it, many times over. But a great many entrenched interests will have to give up their pork supply (corporatate welfare), and/or their addiction to power.

      So don't hold your breath...

      --
      Mmmmmm... Bold, yet refreshing!
  8. Re:Bush administration by raptor_87 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Er, during which part of the Apollo program? I belive the (inflation corrected) funding is now up to ~65% of what it was in 1965.

  9. Re:NASA, get out of the launch business! by raptor_87 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    A shuttle derived heavy lift vehical may make sense. It's worth noting that no commercial launch vehical can lift more than ~25 tonnes into LEO. (and rather less on an earth escape trajectory) For a manned Moon or Mars mission, you need the equivalent of 100-150 tonnes to LEO, assuming that you are going with a lightweight (eg: Mars Direct) program.

  10. Pay Attention: This Is Old News by reallocate · · Score: 4, Interesting

    >> Should the Space Shuttle be cut loose?

    Pay attention. That's been the plan for some time. It's been in all the news, you know.

    The CEV will succeed, not replace, the Shuttle. When the CEV flies, the Shuttle stops flying. If ISS construction continues after that, it will need to be with redesigned payloads launched on new vehicles.

    Even if the CEV was not in the works, the Shuttle is approaching the date at which the entire system would need to be requalified for flight. That would be very expensive. the Administration has no intention of asking for those funds and Congress has no intention of providing those funds for a vehicle that is considered fundamentally flawed.

    Don't lament the future of the Shuttle of the ISS. Both served to justify the existene of the other. Now that NASA has a real mission with real targets, the Shuttle isn't very relevant.

    --
    -- Slashdot: When Public Access TV Says "No"
  11. Lost Blueprints. by torpor · · Score: 3, Informative


    The blueprints for the Saturn V were *NOT* lost. They are on micro-film at Marshall Space Flight Center. They're not going to be terribly useful: rocket-science has come a loooong way since the 70's, courtsey of a few other sciences (materials/manufacturing).

    --
    ; -- the corruption of government starts with its secrets. a truly free people keep no secrets. --
  12. Saturn V by drxray · · Score: 5, Informative
    from sci.space via skepticfiles.org.

    Despite a widespread belief to the contrary, the Saturn V blueprints
    have not been lost. They are kept at Marshall Space Flight Center on
    microfilm.

    The problem in re-creating the Saturn V is not finding the drawings, it
    is finding vendors who can supply mid-1960's vintage hardware (like
    guidance system components), and the fact that the launch pads and VAB
    have been converted to Space Shuttle use, so you have no place to launch
    from.


    Also, I think the moon is fairly low in metals, so mining it to build spacecraft isn't a great plan unless you want to build them out of rock. Building a moonbase by remote control would be pretty awesome though.
    --
    Slashdot - Mutual Assured Discussion
    1. Re:Saturn V by pfdietz · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Building spacecraft on the moon is not something that will be done soon. Not because metals are scarce, but because spacecraft are complicated devices that require enormous industrial infrastructure behind them. You're not going to transplant that industry to the moon anytime soon, and you're not going to save money (even considering launch costs) when the cost of labor on the moon will be many orders of magnitude higher than on Earth.

      Somethings we may see sooner are mining the moon for propellant (lunar polar water, organics, stuff derived from those), and possibly extraction of platinum group elements if PGE-rich asteroid impact sites can be located. None of these activities require sophisticated manufacturing on the moon.

    2. Re:Saturn V by sjames · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Building spacecraft on the moon is not something that will be done soon. Not because metals are scarce, but because spacecraft are complicated devices that require enormous industrial infrastructure behind them. You're not going to transplant that industry to the moon anytime soon, and you're not going to save money (even considering launch costs) when the cost of labor on the moon will be many orders of magnitude higher than on Earth.

      It's not going to happen in the next 5 years, but there are significant savings available from moon based building.

      First, consider launch costs. At 1/6G, it's a lot easier to get a spacecraft off of the lunar surface in the first place, so you get to build a much lower powered spacecraft to accomplish the same mission.

      Safety is a factor as well. A nuclear powered booster may present unsurmountable political and social obstacles for Earth based launch, even if you CAN prove that it's safer than a big chemical booster. The barriers are a lot lower for Moon based launch since nobody can claim that an accident would damage/destroy an ecosystem or put a large civillain population at risk.

      The spacecraft design is further simplified by not having to build it to deal with Earth's gravity while being positioned and launched. It will have no aerodynamic considerations. A lot of complexity and weight can be saved by not having to design everything to fold up into a cylindrical rocket and/or dock together in orbit. A spacecraft that would crumble like so much tissue paper during an Earth launch could be fine for a Lunar launch.

      A device much too heavy for even the strongest crane/winch and cable on Earth could be managed on the Moon.

      Advances in robotics can reduce the cost of Lunar labor. Telepresent workers won't be nearly as expensive as human beings located on the Moon since they can go home at night and will actually face less workplace hazards or physical exertion than they would personally doing the same work on Earth.

  13. Re:Bush administration by ocelotbob · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Well, it could be worse, he could have the european mindset of "throw money and bureaucrats at a problem until it goes away". I wouldn't trust them with anything that matters either. Best solution, like nearly everything, probably lies outside of government waste.

    --

    Marxism is the opiate of dumbasses

  14. YES by Konster · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "What we need to do is establish a base on the moon."

    Because, as you all know, building an orbital station with the collective strengths of many nations has been a roaring success. Oh wait.

  15. Just deorbit the barrel of pork... by Eukariote · · Score: 3, Insightful

    ...and kill the shuttle too. Seriously. The international space station is useless pile of orbiting pork. It represents how the US subsidizes industry. No real science gets done up there. The last few years it had only a skeleton crew, barely sufficient for maintenance work.

    Kill it. Kill it now. It will free up tens of billions. The shuttle flights alone are $500-800 million a pop. Put the money into real space science and development of cheap launch systems.

    Oh wait! Looks like http://www.spacex.com/ is already doing the latter. With private money. Why not go with them? Well, cause that robs the US of an instrument of industrial policy: order way-too-expensive space systems from Boeing and blame the Europeans for subsidizing Airbus.

  16. Re:Bush administration by Hungus · · Score: 5, Informative
    well according to this MSNBC article from a bit over 2 weeks ago
    "We have the money to do good things," said Administrator Michael Griffin, who has visited at least seven of NASA's centers since he was appointed in April. During a two-day visit at the home of human spaceflight, he spoke with astronauts, flight directors and other top administrators.

    Griffin said on Tuesday that the agency has received a steady flow of funding, which when adjusted for inflation is comparable to the funding the agency had when it first sent astronauts to the moon during the Apollo program of the 1960s and early 1970s.


    emphisis mine
    --
    Bad Panda! No Bamboo for you! In matters of importance ACs will not be responded to. Want to say something critical,OK
  17. Re:NASA, get out of the launch business! by ocelotbob · · Score: 2, Informative

    The only reason that Fedex doesn't deliver first class mail is because it's against the law for them to do so. In the interests of universal service, the government decided that no one other than the postal service is allowed to deliver first class mail.

    --

    Marxism is the opiate of dumbasses

  18. politics by rctay · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Look at the US states were NASA has a large presence. Count the electoral votes they represent. Do you really thing the US Congress or President is going to slash and burn that much federal pork until a substitute is found. What the hell do you thing this new trip to the moon and beyond is about? Washington has no interest in exploration, just protecting their power.

  19. each flight costs $500 million! by distantbody · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The space shuttle program was ruined in its early days by too many government/military/nasa requirements, in short they wanted it to be a "jack of all trades", but because most of the shuttles functionality and specifications are rarely used, it turned out to be "a master of none" because of all the bloat. each flight costs in the order of $500 million rather than initial projections of $10 to $20 million!

    The Crew Exploration Vehicle appears to be on the right track, just as the shuttle concept was, lets just hope they dont make the same mistakes again! oh well, if they mess this one up too we can always look forward to the future European EADS Phoenix reusable launch vehicle!



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_shuttle Read how the shuttle designers were forced to compromise because of poor funding, and how that initial 'saving' has turned into another allmighty cost blowout. Those near-sighted politicians!!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EADS_Phoenix What the shuttle should have been. Leave it up to the Europeans to get it right!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crew_exploration_ve hicle Congress/US Defence force, don't stuff this one up, k thnx

    1. Re:each flight costs $500 million! by tjic · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Leave it up to the Europeans to get it right

      You yourself said that the shuttle was a reasonable idea when it was early on the drawing board, and it went bad as the project came to fruition...and now you're comparing the ACTUAL American shuttle to a THEORETICAL European shuttle.

      The theoretical ANYTHING is always better than the actual ANYTHING.

      If the ESA ever gets a shuttle up and running, then we can compare apples to apples.

      Until then, your argument holds no water. It's like saying "the party I'm thinking about having is better than that party that you actually had, because your party sounded good, but then when you actually held it, things went wrong".

    2. Re:each flight costs $500 million! by pfdietz · · Score: 3, Insightful

      > The space shuttle program was ruined in its early days by too many government/military/nasa requirements,

      But it *had* to do that. The economic case for the shuttle only made sense if you launched it a lot (remember those 50 flights/year projections?), and that required that it serviced as many markets as possible (real and imaginary).

      If it had been tailored to a specific purpose, its launch rate would have been far too low to ever recoup its development cost. As it was, this was the case anyway.

      The correct decision would have been to do what the Soviets did and continue to incrementally improve expendable launchers.

  20. Wrong Question by luna69 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    > Should the Space Shuttle be cut loose?"

    Perhaps...but there's a better solution: cut the STATION loose.

    ISS has been a big hole in the sky into which we pour money that would be better off spent on alternative manned programs and pure science. With two people onboard, essentially zero science is being done up there, or was being done prior to shuttle flight delays.

    NASA ought to return to its strengths: scientific exploration and exploratory manned programs (Mars, Moon). Sitting in low Earth orbit, watching seeds sprout in microgravity while being fed by expensive Soyuz and SST flights is simply a waste.

    --
    No gods, no demons, and no masters. Secular Humanism!
  21. Re:Turn it over to public sector by Manhigh · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The shuttle program is already largely contracted out.

    The whole "contractors do it for less money" is largely a myth. Contractors often use such programs as a cash cow.

    --
    "Open the pod by doors, Hal" > "I'm afraid I can't do that, Dave" sudo "Open the pod bay doors, Hal" > alright
  22. Now wait just a minute by carambola5 · · Score: 2, Informative

    The ISS is most definitely not useless. It is essentially the world's only permanent microgravity laboratory. In addition, if the station reaches assembly-complete, it would have low-g capabilities a la the Centrifuge Accommodation Module (CAM). Not only should we have the CAM installed, but we are obliged to. The Japanese agreed to fabricate the CAM only if the USA would provide its lift to the ISS. As of now, the completed CAM is sitting in Florida collecting dust. It would be an international gaffe to not send the CAM up.

    Now, the science aspect of the CAM is quite significant, as it allows long-term biology experiments at lunar- or martian-level gravity. Therefore, it would be possible to study the effects of low gravity on plants or small animals without requiring an expensive trip to the moon or mars.

    Going private is nice and all, but the governmental infrastructure is already in place. The costs of replacing that in the near term is simply not cost effective.

    PS: this "stuff" is not way too expensive. Every flight-certified piece of equipment needs a ridiculously high MTBF. Preventing the expense of on-orbit replacement is simply applied before the unit flies. You don't want stuff just breaking in outer space (see: Russian-made O2 units).

    --
    IWARS.
    People, in general, disappoint me. Politicians even more so.
  23. Congress says no by scotty777 · · Score: 3, Insightful
    The US Congress has prohibited NASA from buying Russian flights. The conservatives are trying to force Russian policy changes with regard to the Chechen conflict and sales of nuclear plants to Iran.

    The Russians can provide cheap flights with proven hardware. Resupply flights with the unmanned Progress ships have been flawless. So have the manned Soyuz crew replacement missions. Congressional politics is the problem.

  24. Re:The Third Law just won't do it. by GooberToo · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Especially when we begin to feel the pinch of fossil fuel exhaustion, which in now in the early stages.

    There is now more known oil in the world than there has even been before. We are no where near the end of fosil fuel production. The only thing that *might* (and that's a BIG might) be near exhaustion is easy access to high quality (low sulfer) oil supplies. And the primary reason why fuel production from low quality oil is a problem is because we only have a couple of plants that can process it. The reason being? High quality oil has always been easy to reach, abundant, and cheaper to process. In other words, simple ecconomics at work.

    The only question is, how much are you willing to pay...right now, there is no end in sight and any one that tells you otherwise is, at best, completely ignorant of the subject.

    As the price of oil goes up, more and more fuel options suddenly become econmically feasible. In short, we may change from fossil fuels because of economics and maybe even because of polution, but there is currently zero, not even an inkling of an indication, that we are anywhere near exhaustion of fossil fuels.