Has Google Peaked?

nile_list writes "Robert X. Cringely's latest column explores just what the heck Google could be doing. 'Google likes to play the Black Box game. What are they DOING in all those buildings with all those PhDs?' He concludes that it's likely Google has peaked as a company: 'What if everyone is mainly wrong? What if search and PageRank and AdSense are Google's corporate apex. Most companies would be content with that, but Google isn't supposed to be like most companies. But what if they are?' His conclusion is that 'Microsoft's clearest threat still comes from Apple, though not the way most people expect.' It's an interesting read."

Comments

Blah blah

[TupperTrenine]

What if, what if, what if. This article could have been posted when Earth came out, or GMail, or even Desktop Search. There can always be speculation, why now?

Re:Blah blah

[kevinwal]

There's a lot at stake here for a lot of people; Google has collected a huge pile of investor money, and they should expect to be scrutinized, speculated about and puzzled over endlessly.

I wonder how much longer they'll be able to get away with their "black box" style of product development before investors get nervous about it and run away? This article is a symptom of that nervousness, and represents a great example of the media doing it's job to raise questions.

Re:Blah blah

[GoClick]

You know what, Desktop Search isn't the best desktop search tool, there are ones that are considerably better, heck ones that even work with multiple users. I'd say that Desktop Search is NOT better than the search engine

Google Earth isn't even THEIR PRODUCT, they bought it, that's not innovation therefor it can't drive their peak higher, that said what the heck is it even good for, I'd file it under GAME.

Ok so what do we have that's spectacular, made by them, useful and recent, Gmail. But wait! That's not innovation either, heck I've been able to get to my IMAP mail for YEARS and do full text searches on it and even gasp STORE MORE THAN A GIG! Heck it even has a spiffy web interface, but who cares, I just keep a copy of my Thunderbird configuration on my web server and use Thunderbird wherever I go, however I will give FULL POINTS to Gmail because my mail setup is more complex and expensive, ie not free. Also it doesn't have clever targeted ads to remind me that I need to consume something.

Ok so we've got a search engine that's pretty good, oh but wait, have you checked out another one in the last six months? I imagine you have not. The competition is getting pretty darn good! Worse still the SEO companies are getting pretty good at tricking Google.

So has Google peaked? We won't know until they go bankrupt, which will eventually happen, or someone will buy them or the Internet will be phased out but corporations don't last forever, whatever the case may be the post mortem will be facinating. Until then, I'm happy to use their search engine every day and play with http://maps.google.ca/

But do I think their the be all to end all like the rest of the slashdot fanboys, no.

Do I think I could do better? Oh probably not but I do know some ways that Google could make it's services better.

Search Engine:
*Allow me to specify a set of web sites I NEVER want to results for.
*Allow me to specify that I never want to see another damn .doc or .pdf file again.
*Allow me to sort my results by AGE, how can you know how old it was, crawl the sites and when it changes the contents of more than x percent of the sentaces longer than x mark it changed.
*How about a ranking system? Give me the option to mod down a site and once a domain name gets enough people saying it's crap (*cough*about.com*cough*) drop it from the index

Gmail
*DON'T HIDE THE GOD DAMN DELETE FEATURE UNDER A MENU! I don't care if you want me to keep my shit around forever I don't want to keep some moronic E-Mail about kittens, but that doesn't mean my friend is spamming me!
*How about we have the notify app remember my password? That one would be super cause I already have to log onto my system and if little sally doesn't want her brother checking her email she can turn this off, or atleast give me the option to turn it on.

Talk
*Make it connect to the MSN server too like GAIM does, Ok so I can use GAIM to connect to Talk but still, I'm not a GAIM fan.

Earth
*How about a high speed grayscale only mode and integration with Talk so that I can put a pushpin into my map and send it to my friends?
*Why does maps.google.ca have roads for places that Earth doesn't?

Toolbar
*How about it could come with an integrated tool that stops other toolbars from being installed? That'd be fantastic then I could just put it on my family's computers and not worry about them installing more tool bars, or any software for that matter!
*Integrate a clock, people like clocks! Oh and make sure it stays up to date :P

Desktop Search
*Make it work on more than one user, this shouldn't even be that damn hard what's wrong with you people?

I've lost my rant will....

I'm going to go drink Tang now..

Re:Blah blah

[Bogtha]

It is odd that there seems to be so much Google=bad going around these days.

It started up when they announced they were going public. Yeah, there were a few anti-Google articles here and there, but I noticed a dramatic increase around that time. Suddenly "don't be evil" stopped being a good principle and started being spun as deception. Articles that would have been written as "Google are unlikely to do this because of their Don't Be Evil rule" are now written as "If Google do this, then so much for Don't Be Evil!". It's a subtle change in language, but a big change in tone.

Dunno why it is, mistrust of public companies, jealousy, the sudden disappearance of underdog status... it's probably a combination of things. All I know is that once, the fact that Google did good things and not bad things was seen in a positive light, and now that isn't good enough - people want a guarantee that Google will never do anything bad, which is an impossible expectation that nobody could satisfy.

Google hasn't peaked.

[KingSkippus]

I dunno, the article sounds rather like pretty wild speculation to me. Not that speculation is wrong—the author admits it's speculation—but if any of this stuff comes to pass, I would chalk the author's correctness up more to luck than to keen insight.

Google has a lot of project in the works, including Gmail, Gtalk, Google Desktop, etc. These projects are anything but mainstream and have a LOT of room for growth. Hell, there's still even room for growth in their primary market, the search engine. Though they are huge, they are far from owning that market.

And Apple knocking off Microsoft? Maybe, but if they haven't done it yet, I don't have much reason to believe they'll do it anytime soon. I will admit that there was an interesting speculation in the article:

What if Apple introduces OS 10.5, its next super-duper operating system release, and at the same time starts loading FOR FREE the current operating system version—OS 10.4—on every new iPod [as a bootable drive] in a version that runs on generic Intel boxes? What if they also make 10.4 a free download through the iTunes Music Store?

Wild speculation, but man, it would be fun to watch the resulting scramble.

As for me, I'm convinced that if anyone will ever knock off Microsoft, it will be an OS that gets game developers behind them. I've said for years that as weird as it sounds, gamers drive the market. Not many people use computers at home or school for productive uses, most people use them for playing games. The most popular "applications" on my own computer are probably Firefox and City of Heros. Firefox already runs on a zillion platforms. If City of Heroes ran on Linux, I would probably go ahead to switch to a Linux-only system, if for no other reason than it's free and I don't have to buy a new version every few years.

Once everyone is using an alternative OS (not necessarily Linux, but something other than Windows) at home for games, then they will all want to use it at work and school for productivity and educational applications, and that familiarity will drive more and more companies and schools to switch desktops.

But that's just my wild speculation...

Re:Google hasn't peaked.

[sgt_doom]

As for me, I'm convinced that if anyone will ever knock off Microsoft, it will be an OS that gets game developers behind them. I've said for years that as weird as it sounds, gamers drive the market.

Yes and no. I agree with your opinion of a game-oriented OS having enormous potential - but PORN, not gaming, according too all the internet statistics I've ever seen - drives the market - the truth is not always pretty. Gaming simply has overcome all other forms of popular - and mainstream - entertainment - deriving more revenue than the movie industry, etc.

Yes

[Timesprout]

Next question the does not involve endless futile /. speculation please.

I hope Google has peaked

[DeadSea]

1. As a webmaster, I don't want to rely on Google for 80% of my traffic. I'd like to be able to count on each of three search engines for about 30% of my traffic. Google has been known to throw sites out of their index accidentally.
2. As a user, I feel that Google knows too much about me already. They have a ton of information about what I search for. With gmail, they have a list of who I know, with maps they have a list of places I go, with froogle they have a list of what I buy.

I would prefer that some of the other players in search got their act together and improved to the point to be able to challenge Google. I'd prefer if some of the other maps, email, and shopping sites got their act together and became as good as Google.

Its hard to hate a company that usually has the far superior product, but Google is getting huge and a little scary.

Re:Of course Google has peaked

[WilliamSChips]

That's why they're busily copying every "portal" feature from their superior competitor.

Maybe that part of Yahoo is better than what Google has, but in most places, Google's offering is better. Email, for example. How much space did Yahoo offer before Gmail? 10 megabytes. How much space does Gmail offer as opposed to Yahoo? Google has over twice as much. And feature-wise? Gmail wins hands-down.

Just Cringley being an Apple fanboy again

[jmorris42]

He started out ok, made a few interesting at least observations about Google behaviour of late. But then with a lot of handwaving and not a lot of reasoning dismisses them as has beens so he can go on yet another tired rant about how Apple is going to rise from insignificance and crush it's enemies.

Didn't we all get tired of hearing this same song from the Amigans, how any day now _insert company who owns em today_ is going to come back with something wonderful and all the infidels on PCs and Macs will be wailing and gnashing their teeth?

Apple is a bit player now, will remain a bit player after Intel. In fact, after they perform this one last act for Mr. Gates (get TCPA into mainstream use, something Gates was rightly pilloried for trying under the Palladium name) I'd expect the coup de grace to finally be administered.

But leave off the last part of that collumn and it does raise an interesting question. Where does Google want to be in ten years?

Google maybe, Apple no

[Continental]

Maybe Google has peaked, or maybe they're just in a bit of a valley right now (see the underwhelming debuts of GTalk and GDS 2). I can give that to Cringely. But Apple giving away copies of OS X?? Even old copies, especially old copies? That's insane. If they really wanted more market share Apple could just preload porn on all new video iPods.

Wow

[Bogtha]

This has to be a new low. "I don't know what Google are doing, so I'll write about how I don't know what Google are doing!"

Every one of those iPods is a bootable drive. What if Apple introduces OS 10.5, its next super-duper operating system release, and at the same time starts loading FOR FREE the current operating system version -- OS 10.4 -- on every new iPod in a version that runs on generic Intel boxes? What if they also make 10.4 a free download through the iTunes Music Store?

I thought this "OS X on generic Intel boxes" thing had been done to death? How are Apple going to solve the driver problem? Giving away a free older version that doesn't work with half your hardware is going to make a negative impression, not a positive one.

Feeling Lucky

[Doc Ruby]

What if Google's plan is to actually deliver on the 1990s promise of a "Web Desktop", one app at a time? They're doing it 1990s "spiral development" style, rolling out one complete feature at a time. Amassing the best (or #2 behind Apple) brand in the world, with a "Google feel" of simplicity, immediacy, and nonintrusion. When they lay a layer of association across their related apps, so their Earth model is related not only to your searches (including history of clicks) but also to your contacts and purchases, presenting your online life to you seamlessly wherever you "hit the Web", they'll have endrun Microsoft and everyone else in the "computer business". All those other companies will be merely component suppliers, and the customer relationship will belong to Google. Which is where every seller wants to be - so all those other vendors will have to go through Google to get to the customer. Without all the "evil" baggage of Microsoft, or "complicated" baggage of AOL. Of course, Google won't be able to totally monopolize that relationship, nor hold it forever without challenge. But they will be in the catbird seat for long enough to have all the advantages of perpetuating their power that incumbent market dominators get. It remains to be seen just how benevolent, and benign, is their ruling of that roost - if they achieve it.

Re:OSS Google Killer?

[joeykiller]

I've seen a couple of projects on the net trying to achieve this. The obstacle always seems to be speed: Distributed P2P searching won't give near instantaneous answers like Google and Yahoo does.

But the idea is intriguing. What I've been thinking is that if something like that should be made, it should be done as a part of Firefox. Every page you visit could be indexed by Firefox. Not any other pages. There's not a crawler involved, because you're the crawler: Your surfing habits decides which pages are indexed and which are not.

Now think about BitTorrent: The more people sharing the same file, the faster you can download it. Imagine if the same applied to your distributed search engine: Often and much visited pages would have a high distribution, and would therefore "be more searchable" and therefore automatically be ranked highly.

With this you'd get a search engine where pages could be ranked according to popularity and freshness in a way that ordinary search engines cannot do. It would be a kind of social bookmarking service for search.