Roundtable on Apple's Future

John Murrell writes "Given the insatiable appetite for Apple rumors, analysis and speculation, SiliconValley.com has opened a week long roundtable discussion on the company's post-Intel future. Among those on the panel are Andy Hertzfeld, Tim Bray, Brent Simmons, John Gruber, Keven Krewell, Mark Gonzales and Leander Kahney."

Comments

Why Intel?

[squiggleslash]

I think I know the answer, and it's kind of interesting.

The official line is Intel knows where it's going with certain types of chip and wa[tt]age. While there's some truth to this, it's not really a reason to abandon an entire CPU line for an entirely incompatable one, as it's essentially a short term aim, not a long term one.

My guess? Apple intends to sell off the Mac, probably with the Apple brandname too.

Apple's focus has been, primarily, on the iPod/iTunes line over the last few years, and this is becoming a growing part of the business. Once upon a time it was seen as something to be sold off eventually, a nice cash investment in a short-term industry. But as time goes by, it becomes abundantly clear that's not Apple's direction. Apple would not be doing what it can to lock competitors out of the iPod business (such as by tying iTunes to the iPod and a limited range (like, right now, one) of Apple licensed products) if it saw this as a short-term business. Apple, I believe, sees the iPod as the first in a line of gadgets, though it doesn't necessarily have a roadmap as it's waiting for the technologies needed to implement the remainder. When Apple is able to get flash-based iPod nanos in the 10G range, then I think we'll start seeing some major new developments.

So, what of the Mac? Apple faces a major issue in that the Mac has succeeded for the most part over the last few years by not competing with Microsoft-based boxes. But when this was really happening, the Mac stagnated. Its marketshare is still some way away from being significant or growing significantly, even though the period of non-competition is pretty much over. The Macintosh, in some ways, is dying. It's still a profitable niche, and will be for a long time to come, but it has to beat an 800lb Gorilla, and it's questionable it'll ever be able to do so.

Apple therefore needs to make the Mac an attractive aquisition target for someone else. The most obvious is to build the brandname and focus on one element, the operating system, so when it comes to it, a company like Dell, HP, or Gateway, can essentially buy the brand, and simply rebrand its existing lines without having to pour billions into investing in custom PowerPC based technologies, separate manufacturing lines, etc. That company can milk the platform for as long as necessary (allowing OS X to stagnate, and making Microsoft well aware of that, so Microsoft doesn't see it as a competitor)

My prediction. By 2010, once the Intel-based Mac line is well established, Apple will have sold the Macintosh and the Apple brandname to an existing, major, PC manufacturer. Apple itself will then rename itself to iTunes. To go with the iTunes Music Store. And iTunes Phone (ROKR doesn't run iTunes, but everyone reports it does. Why? Because that's the brand Apple is promoting.)