MS Expects Half of All 360 Owners To Use Live

Gamespot is reporting that Xbox chief officer Robbie Bach expects half of all Xbox 360 owners to use the Live service. From the article: "Bach confirmed that currently, only 10 percent of Xbox owners--some 2 million users--subscribe to Xbox Live. With the addition of the free 'Silver' version of Xbox Live, Bach believes that about 50 percent of the console's owners will go online via the 360. However, they will still have to pay to play games online via the new Xbox Live Gold."

Comments

Not too outlandish...

[RoadDoggFL]

When you consider that Xbox Live Silver will be free, will have barely any features, and will likely be forced down people's throats. Though I guess some of that expectation can be attributed to increased utility withing Xbox Live itself and more people with broadband.

Re:Not too outlandish...

[Miguel de Icaza]

yeah, since the basic and severley limited live service is going to be free, and early xbox1.5 consumers will be in a demographic that mostly already has a suitable high-bandwidth connection - obviously 50% to use live is a conservative estimate. How many will subscribe? -probably a high proporion of early adopters but a year in, when the cost of the console drops - a much smaller proportion since these are mostly casual gamers with lower disposable income.

i saw a presention the other day that predicted the ps2 will outsell (worldwide) the 360 this christmas by at least a factor of 5. The psp is expected to just outsell the 360 with many playstation-lifestylers opting to put a shiny psp in their stocking and wait for the ps3.

it is incredible testement to sony that a six year old console is expected to be able to hold off competion from a new console one-and-a-half generations ahead in technology.

Also if microsoft launched the 360 with halo3 then they could guarantee non-damp first month sales. Because the launch line-up is weak tithout a new halo incarnation there is a very real chance that this baby will be a flop for its first 6 months.

Other factors worrying for microsoft:
1. Many Xbox owners, are relatively recent purchacers - they are not ready for the next cycle and still want to get value from exiting generation (they are about to feel abandonned when microsoft halt all xbox1 activity in next few months)

2. Use of DVD media. A percieved weakness by publishers - allows cheap piracy to continue for next decade when the DRM is inevitably cracked. Publishers suspect microsoft may be using easy-piracy to drive next gen sales. note blueray will not be easy for j6p to crack for several years (or ever if blue-ray fals on its face - in this sense sony are playing a clever no-lose game).

3. lack of inovation. in fact innovation has moved backwards with no harddrive as standard. In the face of the revolution controller (and sonys eye-toy as standard with ps3) and even NO WIRELESS AS STANDARD the package is looking decidedly not very next generation.

4. lack of backwards compatibility. not a big deal - or at least never has been, but nintendo are going to have compatibility going 4 generations back! and sony will have ps1/ps2 compatibilty. so while nobody really cares after a month of ownership - it looks really lame in the shop window.

5. japan. MS are going to spend $billions this time - and eveyone (EVERYONE) knows it will flop. 100% certainty. Microsoft shareholders should be screaming murder (but they are sheep)

Its ok for consoles to have slow starts. But if xbox360 has a slow first 6 months and then gets lost in ps3 and revolution hype - then it will be a disaster for microsoft as they will face a 2nd generation where they must effectively bribe (both in subsidies and easily pirated games) consumers to buy their product. MS have budgeted to lose money in console business for one generation only. Their pockets may be bottomless but their shareholders patience is not. Heres my quote to take away:

there are better things to blow $10billion on than coming joint second in a one horse race.

Re:Nintendo too

[Castar]

I don't think lawsuits are what Nintendo is afraid of - they're afraid of a bad user experience for the new gamers they're trying to usher in.

If you've played online on Live or PS2, you'll understand. The language, while offensive, is nothing compared to the childishness, the racism, the homophobia, the sexual harrasment... Imagine being in High School, except everyone is anonymous and thus can't be held accountable for anything they say. (cf. John Gabriel's Greater Internet Fuckwad Theory) I'm a hardcore gamer, not easily offended, and *I* certainly don't want to play with voice chat in SOCOM or BattleField. It's like swimming in the raw sewage of humanity.

If your last gaming experience was Super Mario Bros. 3, and you're enticed back in to gaming when you have kids, a wife, and a mortgage, you don't want to be called a mexican jew lizard in Mario Kart by some 14-year-old in Alabama. You might not sue over it, but you're sure not going to play online any more, regardless of whether you were warned or not.