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Novell Missteps Not Affecting SuSE
OSS_ilation writes "Analysts and users agree -- if the layoff rumors at Novell prove true sometime soon, SuSE Linux has nothing to fear. Over at SearchOpenSource.com the word is that the popular SuSE Linux operating system has both the community support and technical chops to weather any personnel-related storms that may be lingering on the horizon. However, the point is also made that should Novell go south, there are those who believe SuSE could prove to be an appealing acquisition target."
Novell's got a billion bucks. Really. Even if they take a huge onetime charge to fire everyone they have left in Utah, they won't be dead for years.
Who do you get to be an expert to tell you something's not obvious? The least insightful person you can find? -J Roberts
A revitalized Novell-SUSE-Ximian combo is a massive threat to Microsoft (Hello New Zealand!) and if there are any even barely semilegal (under the current US regi... administration) wink-wink-nod-nod ways of getting the large financial firms to undermine Novell's image and finances, the goebbelsesque masterminds within the Strategic Acquisitions and Finances department of Microsoft are certainly pulling all their strings to that effect. That's their sole reason d'etre!
One recent example: When MS wanted their "Linux Powerhouse" and Office competitors Corel dead (but actually managed to buy it instead through a proxy; DOJ who?), they used ex-MS executives and their former or current colleagues and an MS-affiliated Vector Capital venture firm (financed by certain Paul Allen and operated by ex-MS execs) to do the probing, buying, insider bribing (offers of a glittery parachutes and a get-out-of-jail-free cards, anyone?), doctored "third party" evaluation of the company finances and its business projections (by top Wall St firms) etc. Even Corel's new and supposedly independently created pro-MS business strategy in 2001 was devised by a consultancy firm (McKinsey and Company) with links to people involved in the shady takeover.
Innocuous manipulation of competitors' share price (Down, boy!), or interference in competitors' corporate affairs through seemingly neutral investment houses or venture investors (Split 'em up for quick short-term profit!) is probably taking place all the time. The corporate hijacking of Corel was an amazingly outrageous maneuver, taking place as it did so soon after MS had nominally "lost" their monopoly case against the US-DOJ, and Microsoft's strategic planners certainly feel that they have even more leeway these days.
"Should Novell go south... blah blah blah?"
At the time of the MS-engineered takeover Corel was finalizing its turnaround and had loads of cash left (they were eventually bought out for a mere $30-40M for the dozen or so products!) but for some reason the larger investment firms and certain media kept referring to the company as "beleagured" (Hello Apple!), keeping up a constant stream of negative speculation. That is, of course, intended to have an effect on potential customers...
So now we have the even cash-richer Novell in the unenviable position of being a major MS competitor and yet having its "missteps" and future disembowellings spculated in the press.. But this time Novell also has some big backers (Hello Big Blue!) in its corner and I'd expect Novell to break through any glass ceilings or FUD campaigns instead of laying down its arms and capitulating before the Barbarian Gates.
Should invading one's peaceful neighbours be opposed, or rewarded with trade deals?
This isn't FUD. Novell has been underperforming for years now. Its investors have been clamoring for massive layoffs and a major revampment. They wany Novell to sell off every thing that isn't profitable, and unless SuSE starts brining in a lot more cash, they *will* sell off that division. This isn't hard to believe either, look at Novell's history... they've always just moved from one tech to the other as each of their attempts failed. They are running out of the piles of cash aquired in the mid to late 90s and all the major investors are getting peeved.
Novell's management is one of the most disfunctional units in any major corporation, its great that they bought SuSE and all, except that they haven't done anything with the product since they've bought it. Sure they hired Nat, and he's done some cool things, but when it comes down to it, Novell is still testing the waters with Linux and right now its not looking too good for them. Don't be surprised if they sell off that unit. Last quarter they only earned 2 million dollars, and now they are spending 200 million to buyback stock and bump up their stock prices so investors are a little happier.
Investors have also already pushed Novell to sell off its consulting unit. Now they are also laying off at a minimum of 120 people in Europe. Most investment firms predict Novell will continue to underperform for sometime. Novell bought SuSE because it was on the market to be purchased and it was fairly cheap, Red Hat was offered the chance to buy SuSE first but they declined. Red Hat, unlike Novell, is riddled with major OSS advocates from the top down (i.e. the guy who wrote the first gnu c++ compiler is their VP of OSS affairs) and they believe in healthy competition, especially since with OSS everyone benefits from eachother's work, also it would have made them look bad as being a monopoly on the market. Novell saw a cheap way to test if Linux was profitable and its turning out to not be the golden goose that they needed. Novell is literally just a big mess and its been that way for over half a decade. They *can't* keep at this pace for another year or two.
Regards,
Steve
Businessweek has a good article regarding Novell's current difficulties.