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Xbox 360 Launch To Be Gradual
Gamasutra is reporting that low volume of 360 consoles will result in a somewhat gradual ramp up for the launch. From the article: "'The analysts were expecting more of a launch spike than we were... [we expect a] more gradual ramp toward' meeting revenue targets, presumably due to a lower volume of available Xbox 360 consoles than some analysts were previously estimating, and perhaps indicating there may be more severe Xbox 360 shortages than some have predicted this holiday season."
If there is one person in a company that has no sense of humor and never makes any statements that aren't provably true, it's the CFO.
Something terribly wrong must be going on with the 360 if the CFO is making such a dramatic statement about the system.
I've been reading reactions to the system all over the net and I think there might be huge numbers of pre-order cancellations from people who have seen or read about the 360's public showing at stores. I really have never seen such strongly negative reaction to a next gen machine as people are with the 360. It's not just one or two games, it's all of the games that are being show are reported to look very bad. The amount of ill will and at best indifference is unprecedented for a new console. And I've never seen a console launch have so many PR disasters. It just doesn't seem to stop with the 360 and the Xbox team.
Despite what many people like to think about Microsoft and the amount of money they are willing to throw at the Xbox, Microsoft has just barely been hitting targets each quarter, and one missed quarter, over the past year and a half. The 360 doing as badly as the first Xbox will have huge ramifications to their revenue/profitability/stock price. Wallstreet is watching the 360 release very closely.
I would not be surprised if things don't turn around quickly for the 360 by early next year that they will take the dramatic step of pulling the plug on the project. The days of riding out losses from the Xbox's division are long over. The 360 was supposed to be the one that they got right and the Xbox team's second and last chance.
I have seen signs that Microsoft is already putting things in place for a possible plan where the 360 hardware is killed off and the Xbox online service and development tools are used to attempt to turn pc gaming into a revenue stream like the console market. But with the mood at Microsoft these days just killing the whole project off and moving on to more promising areas of revenue growth is most likely.