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A Flu Pandemic?
Pedrito writes "Scientific American is running a story in this month's issue about preparing for a flu pandemic. What this article tries to convey is that a pandemic is definitely coming. Whether it's from the H5N1 strain (which would likely cause hundreds of millions of deaths) or another strain a few years down the road. There have been 3 other flu pandemics in the past 100 years. The 1918 strain being the worst, with 40 million killed. The reason H5N1 is being followed so closely is because it's already spread to people and because it's incredibly lethal (a roughly 50% fatality rate at th moment). Even if the fatality rate dropped to 5% when and if it mutates into an easily communicable form, it would be twice as deadly as the 1918 virus."
One thing that bothers me about all this sudden talk of pandemics, how much cause for concern is there for the average American citizen? This flu strain is apparently more dangerous than SARS, yet it has recieved nowhere near the amount of press that SARS did, and SARS primarily affected the elderly and people with poor immune systems (there were exceptions, though, back off).
In my case, I haven't been sick enough to need antibiotics in more than a year and a half. I'm a full time college student living in a thirty year old dorm in western Pennsylvania. I regularly have contact with over 1000 people on any given weekday. At any given moment, there is at least 5 people in my hall who are sick.
Is this pandemic something that American college students at small schools should worry about? Obviously, there is a much higher chance at a university or much larger school (like Penn State with ~45,000 students from all over the world).
Colin Dean Go a year without DRM
50% of what? Of people who got sick enough to go to a doctor. Where do the people who never showed up at a hospital fit into this statistic?
Being somwhat affiliated with a few online pharmacies, I know, that Tamiflu (possibly a cure, or at least a good suport medicine to avoid getting any flu) has been withdrawn form public pharmacies and are stocked by the government.
.....
Why is that happening ?
Is this flu propaganda for the drug companies, and fear mongerin ?
These questions came up almost every day looking at searches for that medication, and many claim that this flue, when getting ins a country with decent medical practices/health services has a very small fatality rate. Most people get it in developing countries, and get it in agricultural professions (e.g. farmers being exposed to chickens)....
Before you start trolling on online pharmacies, I never send spam, or sell dangerous meds such as hydrocodone, so don't bother.
Anyway I am exposed to medication news because it became part of my revenue, and dunno what to think anymore about that flu panic....
Most people I know say, that it is just a panic by the drug mob to boost sales, but the stocking of flu meds by governments send me a different message....
We all know that the news cycle runs on hype, and that there are always charlatans, snake-oil salesmen, and fear mongers waiting to pounce when danger threatens.
However, immediately dismissing pandemic warnings is foolish. It makes sense to develop a vaccine and work on contingency plans.
That said:
There are a lot of differences between 1918 and 2005, and 1963 and 2005.
Diabetes and obesity epidemic aside, people are a lot healthier:
* Vitamin deficiences and plain malnutrition are rareities.
* Lice, bedbugs, intestinal worms and such, while not unknown and on the rise in certain populations, are very, very rare on the whole.
* The vast majority of people sleep in their own beds, in warm bedrooms.
* Simple palliative medicines like aspirin, decongestants, anti-diarrheals, and re-hydration drinks can turn what in 1918 were deadly menaces into something merely serious.
* Most people take hot soapy showers every day; soap and hot running water are available in restaurants and workplaces.
A pandemic would certainly be bad news for people on the margins, especially the very poor, very old, and recent illegal immigrants crammed into shared housing. But on the whole, the factors listed above will work together to turn a life-threatening menace into something serious -- possibly temporarily debilitating -- but survivable for most people.
Stefan
P.S. Hey! You! Wash your goddamn hands after you use the bathroom and cover you mouth when you sneeze. Yeah, you!
Before people jump on my back saying I'm an evil heartless person... I'm just putting things in to perspective. I don't want a pandemic to break out, but I'm just looking at this with an objective eye.
I'm assuming that 'twice as deadly', as meaning killing twice the number of people.
Yes, the new flu virus may will kill twice as many people as the 1918 pandemic did, however our population has more than tripled since the beginning of last century.
Lets say that the numbers are true. 40 million people died in the 1918, with a world population of, say, 2 billion people. This would mean that there was a 2% death rate.
Now, say in 2005, 80 million people die, with a world population of say 6.45 billion. The death rate would be 1.2% of the total world population.
That's 0.8% lower, than it was in the past. Actual numbers will most likely be less, with better technology, better sanitation in many parts of the world, and an understanding of genetics.
The numbers are here to scare people, and sell headlines.
Money cannot buy happiness, but can buy something soo darn close, that you can't really tell the difference
Two posters comment on a thread about a SUPERFLU with direct references to a bestselling book about a SUPERFLU, and moderators rate both posts as offtopic?? Where are we getting moderators these days, the Republic of Illiteracia? FWIW, I thought both posts were quite topical AND funny. "M-O-O-N" indeed :))
"He who throws mud, loses ground." - proverb
Uh... no. Ones with access to modern medical treatment are the only ones accounted for in the WHO statistics. If they never made it to a hospital they won't be accounted for at all.
Now before I get modded down, I be to remind whoever might read this that what I am saying is FACT. - bogaboga
If you're not one of the typical flu victims (elderly, very young or compromised immune system from other causes), you'll have an excellent chance to shrug it off, even if it does spread. Same thing said by all the other ignorant people who are blissfully unaware that the immune system reacts so hard and fast it causes extreme rates of inflammation in the lungs, and you die. The better your immune system, the harder that response and inflammation. The elderly, young and those with compromised immune systems are going to be better off than you.
You only have to avoid eating the chicken RAW.
Unlike the mad cow disease (which is caused by [very rare] self-replicating proteins, not virii),
the flu virus (like other chicken disease, lysteria, and so one) doesn't survive cooking.
So if cook your chicken soup well, or roast correctly your roasted chicken, you're safe, at least from virii and bacteria.
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
Everyone I know that actually deals with disease for a living, ... is scared, and takes bird flu VERY seriously
I was in the hospital last week for routine blood tests, chatting with my favorite nurse, and she was telling me about all the new plans they have in place for dealing with the coming pandemic. The top health authorities in each country have reviewed the actual hard data on what is coming, and getting ready for various worse case scenarios. They just aren't certain which winter it will hit, probably not this year, but almost certainly one of the next three winters.
The hospital had just reviewed and practiced for a "plan blanc" (white plan) of being overwhelmed with large numbers of highly contagious patients. The plan blanc was mostly aimed at preventing infection of the hospital staff, and how to isolate the sick and keep visitors from circulating and possibly spreading the disease. Next week they are reviewing their "plan noir", to deal with huge numbers of dead, and the disposal of highly contagious bodies and medical waste. The hospital never really had a plan noir tested before, what once was a short couple pages of suggestions is now a whole large book. In my town of 40k population, the hospital was looking for a place to store up to 1000 bodies, with 200-400 deaths per week over a 10 week period, and only being able to dispose of 100 per week. Scary shit, indeed.
The town authorities are preparing for a 50% worst case mortality rate, with all the subsequent recovery problems; no more younger school age children for years, half of the tax revenue generating population dead, food shortages if the borders are closed, longterm drop in tourism, local exports blockaded, and no financial aid from any direction because the devastation may be all around Europe.
All the hospitals in the Benelux, France and Germany are preparing for the worst, and its not in response to some poorly written articles in the mainstream press. They have the experts looking at the data and are getting very, very nervous.
I just got my flu shots, something I've never felt the need before.
the AC
Hemos is like...sci-fi fans;he thinks technology is cool, but he hasn't bothered to understand the science it's based on
> That's one of the reason we didn't see a Ebola pandemia
...
Actually, the reason we don't see an Ebola epidemic is because ebola is spread by contact with blood and/or secretions of an infected person. I'm sure you're aware that flus spread easier than that. The one thing ebola had going for it was the fact it caused people to bleed. Other than that, it's not much more virulent than AIDS.
I'd also point-out something else: the Black Death killed very quickly - most people died four to seven days after infection, which is about the same amount of time that H5N1 takes to kill a person. Your "whole family drops dead the same evening" scenario is not realistic given what we already know about H5N1.
The Black Death is believed to be carried by fleas on rats. The rats (along with lots of other mammals) were dying from the Black Death as well. So, your "if a flu virus like H5N1 can both cross infect birds, but is almost harmless to them, and humans, and is highly lethal," scenario doesn't need to be true in order for H5N1 to be a big problem.
So, the Black Death was killing its hosts and doing it quickly, but that didn't stop it from wiping out a third of europe's population within a few years. In many cities, it wiped out 50-60% of the population. So, the Black Death had the attributes (according to you) would've caused it to burn itself out too quickly to be a real problem. Yet, it killed 1/3rd of europe's population.
The danger will be if a flu virus like H5N1 can both cross infect birds, but is almost harmless to them, and humans, and is highly lethal, then there's some chance of such a "everyone drops suddenly dead" scenario.
I don't think this is the danger. We're talking about the possibility of millions of deaths, which is less severe that your "everyone drops suddenly dead scenario", but also more likely to happen.
I remember back in the 90's taking some Amantadine to help fight the flu. And I wondered why the news keeps going on and on about Tamiflu. So I did a quick check and yes Amantadine is an antiviral drug, but thanks to the fucking Chinese they have made it useless to fight H5N1 because they'd been abusing it the way our ranchers abuse antibiotics. Amantadine costs a lot less but it doesn't matter. Now we have to use the much more expensive Tamiflu.
It gets better. One of the primary ingredients for making Tamiflu is something called Shikimic acid which is difficult to produce and is extracted from star anise that is only grown in four provinces in China. And their is a global shortage of star anise so that's why their's a global shortage of Tamiflu. Anyway it probably won't matter since H5N1 will probably develop a resistance to Tamiflu because of overuse. Anyway, we'll just have to wait and how the next pandemic evolves.
"You'll get nothing, and you'll like it!"