Slashdot Mirror
The 13 Steps to Sony's Demise
An anonymous reader writes "There's an article up over at About.com called, "Nintendo's Role in Sony's Fall." The article discusses a detailed sequence of events, a time-line, that might play out over the next year or two as Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo battle it out. It references the launch of the Xbox 360, Halo 3, the PS3, and the Revolution strategy, as well as Sony's troubles with employee layoffs in 2008 and the PSP. Right or wrong? Who knows, but it's well informed and after 13 steps, the game plays out like this: Microsoft punches, Nintendo dodges, and Sony ends up with a bloody nose."
Yet more speculative wish-listing from beligerent Nintendo fans. Funny how slashdot always seems to find so much space for the "omg Sony is doomed Nintendo roxor" school of thought.
Sony are in a bad place at this very moment. This is undeniable. Furthermore, this is mainly due to an act of utterly reprehensible greed and stupidity on their part. However, this *will* blow over. A year from now, the public will have completely forgotten that the current DRM issue ever existed.
What people tend to forget when discussing the next generation isn't what's going to change - it's what's going to stay the same. Ultimately, Sony are going into the next round of the console wars with the exact same strengths that gave them such an overwhelming victory during the PS2 era. These include:
- Vast array of third party titles, covering every genre and aimed at every demographic.
- Huge brand recognition with people who don't consider themselves to be gamers, but still like to keep a console around.
- Exclusivity, or early-release deals for the most significant franchises in gaming, including (but not limited to) Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid, Grand Theft Auto.
At the same time, Nintendo have not demonstrated that they're prepared to address any of the issues that have rendered the Gamecube so irrelevant over the second half of the current cycle. These include:
- Inability to deliver the quantity of first and second party titles they need to keep gamers interested.
- A dictatorial attitude towards third party developers that serves to keep some of the most important away from the system.
- Very few games which appeal outside of the pre-teen or retro-gamer demographics.
- Serious under-representation in many genres, particularly driving games and RPGs.
All the fancy new controllers in the world aren't going to make the slightest bit of difference to the sales figures until Sony throw away their advantages or Nintendo overcome their disadvantages.
My own predictions as to what will happen? The 360 will make a relatively strong performance, especially with having a Christmas to itself. It won't beat the PS3. It won't even come particularly close. But I think that having a Christmas all to itself and (hopefully) a better RPG presence than the original X-Box will work in its favour. I can see it eventually selling, say, 75 units for every 100 PS3s sold, which would be better for MS than the picture at the end of this round, even if they did manage to take 2nd place in the final straight. The Revolution's only going to continue the slow downward trend out of the mainstream and into niche obscurity that Nintendo have been on for a decade now.