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The Shadow of Kong
The BBC is reporting that the makers of the Kong game recommend against purchasing the 360 version of that title. The article states that an Ubisoft rep, Yves Guillemot, stated that the 360 version is just too dark to play well on a non-HD screen. However, Voodoo Extreme got in touch with Ubi for the official party line, and they had something very different to say. From the article: "Ubisoft is actively investigating isolated reports of resolution issues on specific plasma screens, which should be easily resolved by adjusting/increasing the settings. Ubisoft believes that King Kong offers one of the best gaming experiences available on the Xbox 360 and encourages gamers to check it out for themselves."
Yves Guillemot is not just a "Ubisoft rep.", he's the CEO (being one of the Guillemot brothers, who founded Guillemot - videogames - and Hercules - hardware).
You're arguing that people are going to shun hidef technology -- that it won't catch on. It isn't happening.
People want that fancy HDTV -- they're just waiting for the price to drop or are waiting for their current set to "expire" before replacing it. All HDTV's don't cost > $1000 either.
25% of the TV's sold in the US were hidef in 2004. Estimates for 2005 are roughly 50% of the TVs sold. And it is looking like sales of hidef TV's will reach critical mass in 2006.
I can't see what universe someone can argue that HDTV is just a "fad" that is going to go away.
There are roughly 100 million households in the US. Using your 2004 penetration estimate of 10%, that means 10 million households have hdtvs. Nearly 25 million tv's are sold in this country every year. If we assume 50% of the hidef TVs sold make it into "new" households, penetration during 2005 will reach 16%. By the end of 2006 we're looking at 25%. By the end of 2007, penetration should be at around 36%.
One in every 3 customers will have a hidef tv in their house when the Revolution sees it's first Christmas in the states. And this is completely ignoring the demongraphic data (which would suggest that the consumers being targeted are more likely to have a hidef set than not).
I can't see how anyone can argue that it is an advantage to be selling a new console that doesn't support hidef when 1 in 3 possible customers could take advantage of it -- especially when your competition supports it.
This is Ubisoft. When they realize something is too dark that means you're in deep shit. Even "bright" games like Beyond Good & Evil and Rayman 2 are unplayable without turning up the brightness a lot, their definition of "dark" must be close to Doom 3.
Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.