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Software Predicts Movie Success
scheming daemons writes "TechNewsWorld has an article about software that predicts whether a movie will be successful or not by factoring in its rating by censors (e.g. G, PG, R), strength of the cast, genre, competition from other films at the time of release, special effects, whether it is a sequel, and the number of theaters in which it will show."
Does it take into account a quality of script (or lack of)?
Bastard Operator From 193.219.28.162
It's hard to determine how good 70% is without knowing how many big budget films actually make Blackbuster levels of money. The fact is, they have some idea as soon as the idea is pitched. If the pitch for my film is a big budget movie directed bny Stephen Spielberg, and starring Julia Roberts and Tom Cruise, then it will be marketted haevily and expected to get somethwere between $50 million and $200 million, before they've even got a complete script. If it's a low budget cult horror starring some up and coming actors, it will be marketted less heavily, less money will be spent on it, and while it may make a few million it isn't that likely to be a blockbuster. This is obvious.
If the algorithm can tell us that Catwoman was going to be a disaster, or Blair Witch project was going to be a success, then it would be useful. Otherwise, I suspect that it emulates the ad-hoc rules that have developed in the industry anyway. The article pretty much says as much.