Prognosticating the Year Ahead

Press the Buttons has an interesting and plausible sounding set of theories for the year ahead. From the article: "Sega will finally create an exceptional 3D Sonic the Hedgehog title when Sonic Team puts the entire extended cast (Tails, Knuckles, Amy, Cream, Blaze, Shadow, and the rest) back in the toy box for a while and focuses on what made the original Sonic games so much fun: blue skies and plenty of speed." Some of them may just be wishful thinking, though.

Comments

My predictions

[Headcase88]

Here are my predictions concerning each of the areas he wrote about:

• Of course MS will make sure the 360 is well-stocked during the PS3 release. Halo 3 will be released just before the launch of the PS3 to make the 360 just that much more enticing compared to the PS3 (note: this isn't a prediction; MS stated this). However the tactic won't improve sales much (who goes in to buy a PS3, can't find one, and comes out with a 360? Sounds like a stupid thing to do to me), but like Matt said, pretty good sales overall.
• My guess is that the PS3 will be released in July or August, but there will be some shortages until the Christmas season, at which point there'll be enough to go around, but even at that time some people will still be worried about shortages even though by and large they won't exist. Gran Turismo and Killzone should be available before Christmas. My gut's telling me no GTA until early-to-mid 2007 for some reason.
• Nothing special will happen to the PSP. A few good games will come out for it, and it will drop in price slightly. UMD production will be steady.
• The Revo won't "steal the show" because people were already having visions of using the remote control at TGS. The extra material (Smash Bros and Zelda demos for sure) will be exciting, but other companies will have good games to show as well. Kiosks will be Nintendo's most important weapon; not everyone listens to E3-goers, but everyone goes to stores. The kiosks will be placed where non-gamers will see them, ie, not in an EB Games. Miyamoto's new franchise... that's a tough one... I'll say he will be ready and it will be available near launch like Pikmin was.
• No new GBA, no new DS ('cept maybe new colours, that's it), probably a small price drop ($10) for all their portables. The mainstream media won't shut up about New Super Mario Bros precisely because the gameplay is so "old". I think the main flaw of the game is that Mario/Luigi will have slow running speeds, and possibly won't be maneuvarable enough in the air.
• I think every last game Nintendo has made for the NES and SNES will be available at launch. N64 games might be delayed for possible additions (again, not a predicion, Nintendo is actively considering making games like Mario Party online). They'll try to get other companies to offer their games as well, of course, but they probably won't agree to it at launch. Any game that was complete but cancelled will probably find it's way to the Revo sooner or later. Japan Only games will probably be available untranslated, in fact I'll say that Nintendo's portal of games that you can buy online is international, so someone from the US can buy a Japanese game, after being warned that it's untranslated. They might even translate Mother, but don't count on it (unless it's already been translated? I don't know). Incompleted games: Nintendo won't want to spend their time finishing them, especially since they'd have to work with old NES/SNES programming.
• Will Sega make a good Sonic game? Hard to say. On one hand, Sega promised they'd re-invent Sonic, on the other hand, Sega has had a bad track record with their mascot as of late outside of the portable realm. My money's on the new console Sonics being slightly better but still weaksauce, but the new portable ones still being pretty good.
• As for Capcom I'll say... RE5 will be another awesome game but a little too much like 4, nothing big for Street Fighter this year, and a mediocore Mega Man game that will be available for the PS2/XBox/(maybe GCN), and a promise for a good Megaman game in 2007 on the new consoles.
• I also think there will be footage of a very dark Castlevania for PS3/360 at E3. Not so sure about a compilation, though.
• EA: same old. Some the new stuff that they just acquired will be good, most of the old stuff will be the same as last year, and the year before that, and the year before that. In my opinion.