Slashdot Mirror
Large PS3 Launch, Nintendo Resolutions
ConfusedFX writes "GameDAILY has published a news article featuring Reggie Fils-Aime, Nintendo's Executive Vice President of Sales. He had several things to say about Nintendo's 2006 strategy, one of which, 'We will sell more units than Xbox 360 did here in the United States in our launch window.' He commented about Xbox 360 owners spending nearly $800 at launch; he wants the Nintendo Revolution to be 'affordable' to the average gamer. Additionally, GameDAILY has posted an interview with Andy Parsons, senior VP of Pioneer Electronics, written by The Digital Bits. Some analysts expect the PS3 to launch with around 1 million units -- Andy says he's heard differently from Sony. 'If Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between 4 and 7 million units could ship.'"
Seriously, saying you'te going to beat the XBox 360's launch is basically like saying 'We are not retards, and we're not rushing our product to market.'
The XBox 360 had 400,000 units available at launch and has only delivered a couple hundred thousand since then; Nintendo (with the Gamecube) had 500,000 on launch day with 500,000 released that month (which I would expect to be the minimum we would see from the Revolution).
Also, Nintendo's Price point comments could probably be replaced with "We are trying to sell for as low as $200, but that seems unlikely, so we're determining whether $225 or $250 is a better price point; we're just going to tell you under $300 so that when we announce it at $225 or $250 you'll be happily surprised. (Plus if we're lucky enough to get the manufacturing costs low enough to sell it at $200, you'll probably mess your pants)"
Revolution will come out within a month of Thanksgiving weekend (aka black friday), and it will launch for $250 or less... probably right at 200 I'm thinking... It will sell fairly well, but people will be confused by it at first... They will probably just sell around a million units in the US at first to the few people who get it... of course, overtime I think it will explode, but the kind of people who spend "$800" on an Xbox 360...ie...the first wave buyers will be too obsessed with their PS3s and the Xbox360's second gen of titles.
As for the PS3 it may or may not go so well... There are 3 factors, cost, quantity and the quality of launch titles as comparable to the 360's games that are already out before launch... I can see it going for as high as $499.99, but if they go any higher it'll probably flop. If they can't get at least a million units to the US before Christmas that could be another major stumbling block (they couldn't handle the PS2 launch). And launch titles almost always suck, so they better be working their asses off to get some sort of must have title at launch. Another problem is that by the time PS3 comes out developers should finally be figuring out how to write a little parallel code for the 360, taking advantage of all 3 cores, and start really exploiting the power of the system, so PS3's graphical prowess may not be as apparent as people think it will be.
A few more here... Halo 3 probably won't be out by the launch of the PS3, but I can almost guarentee we'll see a few trailers, if not a demo even by then... Zelda: Twighlight Princess will probably be released around June and won't take advantage of the Revolution anymore than any other Gamecube games will...and the redesigned DS will probably come out right around the same time too.
"A truly wise man realizes he knows nothing."
It appears that the 360 is getting pushed off the mind of the public and everything is turning into Nintendo Revolution and Sony PS3.
Can anyone give a plausible scenario where Microsoft can remain relevant to the next gen race?
I am looking at the release list of games for the 360 over the next year and it looks like all the same type of games that the first xbox had. There doesn't seem any reason for anyone to buy a 360 who didn't already buy the first xbox.
The more I read about the supposed specs of the Revolution the more it sounds like it will, outside of higher resolution, easily outpace the 360 in performance. The dual 970ish CPU that is in the Revolution will easily outperform the 360 CPU - which looks like it has realworld performance around a 2 to 2.5GHz dual 970 system. And the custom ATI graphics system in the Revolution sounds like it will be much more advanced than the essentially current gen pc GPU in the 360 - outside of resolution once again.
Hi I'm an industry analyst. My prediction are:
Xbox 360 will drop in price to $35.32 to combat Sony's release of the PS/3 which will incidentally be marketed in the $1.2 million price range. Sony's initial stock of 5 PS/3s for the holiday season 2009 will sell out. The resulting influx of $6 million will exceed all money ever made selling anything Xbox related for any Xbox system ever that was or is to be.
In an effort to get more non-gamers playing Nintendo will release the Revolution in a buy one get one free special pack marketed witht eh slogan "one for you, one for Grandma". It will come with an updated Robby the robot. Corporations such as McDonalds will take advantage of the low cost robotics and replace their entire work force with Robbys. The Revolution controller will be shown to be a cheap ploy by Nintendo to transition to teledildonics.
The CEO of Nintendo will be compelled to commit suicide after a horrifying cosplay scandal involving a certain stain on a sailor moon outfit. The successor will distance Nintendo from video gaming and return the business to it's hana futa card making roots - stating that they want Nintendo's finanacial profile to be more in line with Sony and Microsoft, since profitability is no longer a sign of success.
The Internet, having proven to be a fad, will achieve sentience and then blow itself up by detonating large nuclear devices in every major backbone location across the world. This will have no real impact on Microsoft's Xbox Live, as we all know that nobody really plays on Live anyway. There will however be "the scream heard round the world" as millions of World of Warcraft players are instantly denied their chance to earn phat lewt.
PC gaming will rise from it's current dead status to achieve undeath with titles like Sims 3: Get a Life! shambling about Wal Mart screaming "braaaaaaainnsssss".
Please adjust your stock portfolios accordingly.
Sometimes my arms bend back.
Theres two plausible scenarios that can play out that'll serious help Microsoft's 360.
1. The PS3 launch is more or less as bad as the 360's. (Remember, they bungled the PS2 AND the PSP launches so it is possible) Between the 360's early foothold on the market and the lack of any first-gen titles that take advantage of the hardware (which is true for ANY hardware), the PS3 crumbles between the 360's early launch the Nintendo Revolution's 'we complement, not replace, the 360 and/or PS3' strategy. Throw in Sony's poor economic state and the fact that the PS2 is simply far too old to be of any contest and after 3 or so years, the PS3 is axed to cut losses.
2. Blu-Ray doesn't catch on for whatever reason, take your pick from too high costs to dislike of DRM to movie studios/customers do not support it (again, likely given Sony's past). Because of the added costs from the Blu-Ray drive and the lack of the same movie support the PS2 recieved with DVDs, the PS3 flounders since it cannot support itself solely as a video game system due to the extreme hardware costs. Again Nintendo survives with its video game-only system strategy and Microsoft survives either from HD-DVDs or it simply drives the PS3 off the market.