The New Boom

DarkClown writes "Wired is running a piece discussing the recovery from the burst Bubble in Silicon Valley. This time, though, it's no Bubble: it's a Boom. They suggest that this latest boom, fueled by Google's ascent, is under steadier footing than last time. Technology and the market seems to be catching up to the hype." From the article: "A boom perhaps, but not (phew!) a bubble. There's a difference. Bubbles are inflated with hot air and speculation. They end with a wet pop, leaving behind messy splatters. Booms, on the other hand, tend to have strong foundations and gentle conclusions. Bubbles can be good: They spark a huge amount of investment that can make things easier for the next generation, even as they bankrupt the current one. But booms - with their more rational allocation of capital - are better. The problem is that exuberance can make it hard to tell one from the other."

Comments

Oh, no hot air, I see...

[dachshund]

So when Amazon.com was selling for hundreds of dollars a share, that was ridiculous. But when Google is selling for $434 per share, everything's just fine. Because, um, they sell advertising, or something.

Some people just don't learn

[pubjames]

One thing I learnt from the last bubble (and having read up about other ones in history) people always say "It's different this time..."

Infrastructure not old business model

[Flying pig]

Amazon is (just) a department store that runs over the Web. All its tricks are just derivatives of the way that traditional department stores operated - hosting stores within stores, customer accounts, POS advertising. It arose at a time when the infrastructure did not really exist to support it. Google is an enabling technology. It is funded through advertising, but it is something fundamentally new. I'm in the process of completing a personal engineering project. When I look at the stuff I have had to learn and the technology I have had to acquire, it's probable that without Google and the Internet it would have taken several times longer and not worked so well. As for my day job, it would be nearly impossible.

Google shares are possibly over-hyped, but they reflect a very interesting perception: that the Internet is now good for something, but that we don't know where it is going. We had the mass transit revolution (railways), the personal transit revolution (bicycles, then cars), the communications revolution (telephony.) Now we have the information revolution, and anyone who looks like they are reading meaningful signposts is likely to be highly valued.

Definition of a Bubble

[LukePieStalker]

You know it's a bubble when people are calling it a "boom".

historical blindness

[elmegil]

This time, though, it's no Bubble: it's a Boom.

Riiiight. Anyone remember the Wired with the smiley face, subtitled "The Long Boom" claiming that this time it wasn't a bubble?