Games Industry To Shrink in 2006?

Gamedev.net reports on an analyst forecast for the game industry's 2006 health. A previous analysis that the industry would have continued growth through the year is 'out the window', with forecasters judging this to be a slow year for game purchasing. From the article: "Pachter notes that during the three-month period leading up to the heavily anticipated November 22 Xbox 360 launch, console and PC software sales in the US were down 21.6 percent. Believing that consumers were holding off on making current-generation purchases in favor of waiting for next-gen products, Pachter thinks it's a trend that could repeat itself, specifically when Sony announces a launch date for the PlayStation 3. Currently Pachter expects that system to arrive in October, meaning the industry's transitional slump could last until late 2006"

Comments

MMORPG Effect

[Anonymous Coward]

Could this be the MMORPG effect. Many people play WoW, EQ(2), UO, et al. That means they're playing them, not necessarily buying new games.

AAA games

[ardor]

I doubt we will see any changes in the AAA sector. Development is so expensive that stuff HAS to sell, thus new ideas don't get a chance. There are a few exceptions, the only ones I can remind of right now are Escape From Butcher Bay and Unreal Tournament 2004, both games surprised me - not necessarily because of the tech (although EFBB is very impressive technically), but because its a hell of a lot of fun to play them. I regularly catch myself playing old 2D point-and-click adventures and amiga games like Deuteros (the virtually unknown Millennium sequel, and one of the few sequels that are really superior to the first one), and I start thinking why no one does this marvelous gameplay with today's technology. (Then reality kicks in again and I remember the costs issue.)

Yeah, the next big hit will be the casual games and the indie games IMO. Slowly, tech is becoming "good enough" (unless you are a graphics whore). Its still a lot of work to get a decent-looking game done, but free gaming engines are becoming better and better (although most still lack decent toolchains), and if you look at projects like the FS2 source project (Freespace2 with vastly improved gameplay and graphics) or the Babylon 5 game, it becomes clear that indie games aren't necessarily doomed to have crappy looks anymore. It is impressive how far you can get with a Radeon9600-class hardware (again, see EFBB), the industry just doesn't make full use of it because of the tight time schedule - it is easier to force the customers to buy new hardware....

I hope Nintendo's move takes off and indie gamers make a successful return. The garage developer is back, ladies! :)