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The 360's Position in the Next-Gen War
An anonymous reader wrote to mention a great article on the Elite Bastards site looking at the Xbox 360's positioning in the next-gen market. In the first of a three part article series, the author looks at the lessons Microsoft learned from its first hardware outing, and what he feels the company's strategy will be in the near future. From the article: "Clearly my impression of the Xbox 360 is that it is positioned to compete significantly better in the next gen console race than its predecessor. The difference this time around is that although Microsoft will no longer have the decidedly most powerful console, they also won't have the most expensive console, and believe me, they will compete on price. The Xbox 360s media (DVD) and input device (gamepad) are safe choices and the CPU may be merely adequate, but the GPU is quite potent and should go far in keeping Microsoft's box in the same league as Sony's overall despite the disparity in time to market."
The target audience for the PS3 is the same people who buy lots of CDs, and were most affected by the rootkit.
Since the rootkit got so much attention, victims will remember it when the PS3 comes out.
Nintendo is also hoping to pull in Girls with the new interface.
I think they have a very strong opportunity to expand the number of females who are buying and regularly playing console games.
Nintendo needs something like The Sims or some female friendly game that makes good use of the innovative controller. Reaching out to women is how they can really blow-out the X-Box.
[Fuck Beta]
o0t!
Warning: personal rant.
As much as that sounds like a troll, I'd have to agree with you. I use to be a loyal follower of Sony - basically for no other reason than I figured that they made superior products, and you'd pay a bit more for them but it was worth it. But two things have annoyed me significantly to arrange my own little boycott (and I know this is true for many others):
Sony BMG.
the whole rootkit fiasco
Sony Hardware
-but more significantly, they make disposable crap. My minidisc player just died because of the blankdisc error - an inevitable ribbon cable snap (which everyone will require eventually) due to opening/closing 'too many times'. An almost $400 'walkman' inevitably requiring a $100 fixed rate repair a few years later. The new mp3 walkman don't have backlit screens (what happens at night?), and they're bigger than cheaper 3rd party ones.
Linux:
Their hardware is unlikely to ever support my os, because (perhaps because they're a giant popular corporation) they like to keep it all closed up.
They definitely aren't the company I perceived them as (many are realising this) - I hope they get what they deserve for treating consumers like dirt. But they'll still rule the hardware market I figure (because of history, and the perception than paying more means better products).
"You know you don't act like a scientist, you're more like a game show host." Dana Barret
Not a lot of people are using HD sets yet but most of the new ones being sold are HD systems.
Its an interesting gamble by Nintendo. But, although marketshare dynamics are important, they didn't only consider the marketshare of HD.
HD is a performance drain.
HD textures require lots of memory, HD video requires lots of disk space, HD rendering is like quadruple the number of pixels that have to be computed.
That has several side effects - it raises the cost of the hardware, as you need more memory, faster gpus, etc - as well as imposes longer level load times and other annoyances.
And they predict that most people won't even benefit from it - at least during the lifecycle of this generation of consoles.
Even if they don't have such a TV, families will walk into the store next Christmas season and see PS3, X-Box, and Nintendo screens side by side in demo areas, and next to the other two, the Nintendo will look like something from a 1980s arcade machine.
Hardly. At the local Electrnics boutiques, BestBuys, Future Shops, and Circuit Cities these "demo screens" are mounted into mini 'arcade' stands between game racks and tend to be a whopping 15" sdtv, so any "hd-ness" will be invisible.
Sure there is usually a 40"+ plasma with a console hooked up to it for some feature game from the console with the highest margin, but that isn't putting the 3 systems 'side-by-side'. But even there the revolution will support 480p (progressive scan), and so there is no reason it can't look as good as DVD, which stands up quite well as compared to hdtv. (Indeed I have DVDs that look better than much of the 'hdtv' that comes in over the air - due to compression.
So what families will really see when they walk in at Christmas is that the Nintendo is almost half the price (meaning they can get their kid something in addition to the Nintendo that year). And that 'half price'-ness comes in significant part because they skipped HD this go around.
I'm not sure if it was the "right" move. Only time will tell, but its nothing like the ridiculous 1980's arcade game comparison you portray. Its DVD quality picture at half the price of xbox360.
Meanwhile, the 360 will have a year's worth of new games to show off, the PS3 will have its usual stable of Sony exclusives, and the Revolution will have.... what?
Precisely. The Revolution has the potential to give us something truly new. We don't know *what* the games are going to be and that's half the point. Though of course we can expect representation from their iconic franchises -- mario, zelda, metroid, etc.
The gaming market is now big enough to handle three major players. Probably more.
The market maybe, store shelves, not so much.
There's only room for "one winner" at the retailers... one will be up front, featured on the big plasma, with a good selection of games prominently displayed and the others will be available but comparatively marginalized to varying degrees, with less shelf space and less game and accessory selection.
All three consoles are probably going to end up making lots and lots of money.
Microsoft will have to stop losing money on the xbox before I'll buy into 'making lots and lots' of it.
The only people who care about a "winner" between the three consoles are drooling fanboys of one platform or another.
Agreed.
The Launch: Microsoft did a decent job hyping the system, but the launch was, on balance, weak. You had your brief hysteria of $5,000 systems on eBay, but it died down fairly quickly. You had serious supply issues--to the point where it hurt more than helped. You had the whole power supply issue. You had decent games, but no "killer title" that made you want to go out and get it.
Today: The games are still pretty pedestrian--the operative word is "prettier", which will only get you so far. Now that the insanity of the launch period has passed, there isn't much about the XBox 360 that appeals to the average consumer--it's expensive, it has decent games but nothing "must-have", and finally, it's expensive. $350 for the system and $50-60 games is simply too expensive for the casual gamer.
Assuming this is all true, it makes the XBox 360 no different from virtually any game system that has ever launched: supply problems, too expensive for the "average consumer" (whatever that means, though I guess that means only "above average" consumers were waiting in line to buy them), not enough quality games, some defective units, etc. And as it was for the PS2, it will be no different for the PS3, except by then M$ will drop the price and throw down the latest iteration of Halo. Not a bad place to be in while Sony and/or Nintendo are dealing with the issues Xbox has already moved past.
As for the Revolution. Betting on a "user interface" as you put it seems quite the risk. I can't imagine 13 year old children begging their parents to buy a Revolution so they can try that fancy new "user interface." We can only hope it fares better than the Power Glove.