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Reflections on the Holy Trinity
1up has a piece looking at gaming's future by reflecting on gaming's past. What do the launches of older systems teach us to expect from the PS3's ... eventual debut. From the article: "Shouts of 'Dreamcast' ... fall a little flat when you consider that Dreamcast was more of a last-ditch attempt from a company that hadn't turned a profit in 10 years. Microsoft isn't bowing out anytime soon, which means that being out in front will probably be an advantage -- by the time Sony launches, the 360 will be over the launch hiccups and rolling with a steady stream of new software. On the other hand, if Blu-ray is as big for the PS3 as DVD was for the PS2, Microsoft could find itself technologically inferior -- a direct consequence of its rush to market. "
A father, a son, nor a holy ghost are mentioned anywhere here. One might suggest that Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo are the holy trinity of gaming, but how do they map to the previous set? Not to metnion that Nintendo isn't mentioned in the article. Wait~! This is the third playstation iteration and there is the concept of three in trinity... That couldn't be it could it... (Rather lame if you ask me)
Sorry if you are a fan of the system, but reality is a bitch.
Sony has, astonishing as it sounds, even more developer support than they did with the PS2. Components are being manufactured right now and they will be assembled into final machines and out the door in June for Japan and September/November for the US. The PS3 will have the greatest system power advantage of any console in history.
Nintendo has massive new developer support for the Revolution. The system will be a little bit more powerful than the 360 but won't support 720p. Every console dev house wants to do Rev stuff in addition to their mainline PS3 titles.
Sales of the 360 have been declining with the system selling at half the rate of the first Xbox. That puts it on track for Dreamcast or lower installed base numbers. The sold out everywhere excuse for poor sales is turning into the same type of excuse people were making about beta-devkits being responsible for the poor 360 graphics.
Handhelds are really surging right now. Most console dev houses are looking more and more at DS and PSP stuff. That really leaves the 360 as the odd console out with little reason to target the platform outside of a few downspeced PS3 ports for non-pc developers.
Japan is ready to go nuts over the Revolution. And the US and Europe are ready to do the same over the PS3. We are probably going to see the PS3 and Rev neck and neck in Japan and the Rev being a respectable second console in the US and Europe.
Next gen is looking something like this:
PS3: 120-130 million
Rev: 40-50 million
360: 10-12 million
Almost everyone who bought a PS2/PS1 will be buying a PS3 with the exception of Japan where Nintendo will probably see a large number of defections to its system.
The Xbox demographic is made up of Sega/Dreamcast fans, pc gamers, and Microsoft fans. PC gamers appear to be abandoning the platform due to the weak hardware leaving the 360 with only the Microsoft and Sega base of users. That really puts a hard ceiling of about 12 million units for the system. And that matches the poor sales of the system. There are virtually no one from the Sony or Nintendo camp showing any signs of defecting to the 360. That is some 120+ million players. And that is why Microsoft has such poor support from console developers and has been having to increasingly turn to pc developers to support their console.
For Microsoft the 360 has become a test of not wanting to face the humiliation of admitting defeat in the console market vs the still massive losses the 360 is generating for the company.
Apple should be worried about the digital content distribution system Sony is preparing for the PS3. Sony has massive plans for turning the PS3 into the main digital deliver device for the 120+ million or so people who will buy a PS3 over the next four to five years. Luckily for Apple Sony has yet to come up with a true competitor to the iPod, but they are getting closer.
There is supposed to be some sort of 'relaunch' of the 360 in April. Clearly Microsoft can see how badly the 360 is doing and is desperately trying to jumpstart the system. What exactly a relaunch is supposed to accomplish I have no idea. It doesn't fix the massive problem of lack of developer support for the system or give the system any new system selling exclusive IP. There just isn't any way for Microsoft to make the system relevant.