PS3 Delay To Have Little Impact?

According to analyst firm Strategy Analytics, the PS3's delay is unlikely to have much of an effect on the next-gen race, reports GameDailyBiz. From the article: "While 2006 sales will clearly fall short of previous expectations, Strategy Analytics maintains its previous forecast of PS3 sales of 121.8 million units through 2012 ... This compares to expected sales of Microsoft's Xbox 360 of 58.8 million units over the same period." Gamasutra reports that, from Steve Ballmer's perspective, the opposite is true. From that article: "In every other generation, the first guy to 10 million consoles was the number one seller in the generation ... Did we just get an even better opportunity to be the first guy to 10 million? Yeah, of course we did." This all assumes the console launches this year.

Comments

delay, shmelay

[oedneil]

I don't see anyone who wants a PS3 not waiting a few extra months. I doubt anyone who wants a PS3 will decide to buy a Revolution or 360 just because they're out earlier. I know people are mostly impatient, but if that's what you really want, you'll wait.

Re:delay, shmelay

[Fett101]

I'd pay $1000 for a console if it really blew me away. I really want to see something more powerful than the XBox 360 which in my mind is comparable to my (fairly high-end) PC.

Seems redundant to me.

installed user base

[BewireNomali]

the ps installed user base is too big to overcome. most ps2 owners will re up and get a ps3. most ps2 owners are satisfied with their gaming experience, and I have no reason to believe that this will change between now and when the ps3 is released.

the ps3 will do well. how well the 360 does isn't dependent on what Sony does, more on what microsoft does. they have been marketing the 360 poorly in my opinion, thus limiting the reach of the console.

121.8 and 58.8? Bah!

[ThisIsForReal]

Those analyst forecasts are way off.

By my calculations, it's 121.6 (they must have forgotten to take into account leap year, tax increases, etc).

How can somebody make predictions on the sale of a new piece of technology, projecting 6 years into the future, and to be so arrogant that they use the tenth's decimal place to make their forecast? Whatever...

History can repeat itself, though...

[babbling]

Indeed, but the original PlayStation came out at a time when people had been VERY satisfied with their previous Nintendo system, the SNES. In fact, the first PlayStation was originally going to be a collaboration between Nintendo and Sony as a CD-ROM drive for the SNES. Nintendo pulled out, Sony continued developing it, and the cancellation of that contract turned out to be the worst decision that Nintendo ever made.

My point is, at some point in time, the "popular" brand of systems always falls. Atari, Nintendo (and Sega?), and Sony's time will eventually come... It might not happen with the PS3, but the important thing to remember is that can happen, and eventually will. All empires are eventually toppled.

Re:History can repeat itself, though...

[MikeFM]

You, like myself, are getting old. We don't count as hardcore gamers. Hardcore gamers are the mostly young male population that lives for games and might never have played Pac Man or Super Mario.

I do share some things with the gamers though in that I'm very interested in seeing what kind of raw processing power can put put into these consumer machines. They want them for games and I want them for doing my own little interesting projects on.

The Revolution may innovate in the controller and basic gameplay premises which is great but as soon as it does the XBox and PS3 will just adopt those innovations and be left with much more powerful machines that can do everything the Revolution can and much more. Sure the game market is stuck in a rut but processing power still gives you more room to do stuff.

I'm betting on collabortive content creation as the next-gen killer app. Get some very powerful machines networked together and turn game building, movie production, music production, etc into an easy-to-do group experience and you'll have something. Maybe the Revolution-type controller will be part of that process but a lot of it has to do with having the raw power and bandwidth needed and creating some nice software interfaces and new task-purposed hardware for input etc.

An example would be that many years ago I had a group of friends that had some custom software that would let them hook their midi instruments up and transmit the data back and forth so the group could jam together despite not living close to each other. Today you could provide a nice interface to that process complete with vocals, cam feeds, live editing, recording, and fan interaction and I think people would love it. That isn't a hardcore gamer type of thing but it could make good use of some serious hardware. It's reinventing the concept of a garage band for the Internet era. You could even offer an MMORPG built around such a system so that you could form online bands and compete with other bands and quest and work your way up in the world by being a good band. Some games have bards and things like that. What if everyone in your group used an instrument to battle, defend, cast magic, heal, etc or if your band had to play a given song with the level of percision used to base how well you succeeded. Lots of possibilities.

Both are wrong.

[paullyjunge]

I don't think Ballmer is exactly right, nor whoever wrote the article either. If Microsoft starts really hammering it in that the "next generation" is here, people will get sick of waiting for the PS3 and get a 360. It's common sense. If you are putzing along on a PS2 and get sick of waiting for the PS3, you'll get the itch and pick one up. Sad but true.

Re:121.8 and 58.8? Bah!

[ThisIsForReal]

I understand a decimal place, when applied to millions of units, equals hundreds of thousands. That doesn't diminish the principle that the analyst numbers are garbage. You're applying a decimal to a 3 digit number, which means you're forecasting a number with more accuracy than a percentage point. It's no more accurate than a fart in the wind.