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John Dvorak's Eight Signs MS is Dead in the Water

j79 writes "John Dvorak has written an opinion piece on why he believes Microsoft is dead in the water. He discusses Vista, Office 2007, MSN and MSN search, the Xbox 360, Pad-based computing, .Net, and Microsoft's obsession with Google. "

15 of 711 comments (clear)

  1. I definitely agree with this article by unity100 · · Score: 3, Informative

    Microsoft has indeed shown lack of vision by concentrating not on where its strength laid, the operating system, but instead parleying with the competitors in 'side ventures' it had expanded to.

    I cant complain though, i believe that this has given the open source community time to breath and catch up.

  2. Re:Another BS prediction by The+Snowman · · Score: 3, Informative

    Mister Coward, you obviously didn't read TFM where Dvorak says Microsoft will continue to make "gobs and gobs" of money. He argues that they will be less and less relavent, not that they will make less and less profit.

    --
    24 beers in a case, 24 hours in a day. Coincidence? I think not!
  3. Re:.NET is dead in the water? by JeanBaptiste · · Score: 1, Informative

    Not being sarcastic at all. Actually I'm a .NET developer, mostly VB I guess. Threw my resume out on monster.com last week, had 2 interviews and more phone calls than I know what to do with. Got an offer for 20 grand more than I'm currently making, figure I'll take it. I am amazed at the job opportunities out there for .NET right now (which is the reason for my previous comment)

    I'm in the Minneapolis area but am willing to relocate, and I do like Madison. I'd say I'm mid-level, certainly not a beginner (been doing .NET for 5 years, programming for 10) but I wouldn't call myself a guru either.

    So if you want a resume or something, let me know your email and I'll forward it to ya.

  4. Re:Dear God... by Maradine · · Score: 3, Informative

    California?

    --

    trustedworlds.net - gaming, security, and the gunk that lives in between

  5. Re:If Dvorak is right by maynard · · Score: 2, Informative

    Wasn't Dvorak predicting Apple would use Itanic and not X86? Was Dvorak really correct? Only insofar as that Apple chose the same supplier.

  6. Re:The future is now! by QuietLagoon · · Score: 2, Informative
    but I wouldn't call them dead just yet.

    If you read the entire article (specifically the last paragraph), you will see that Dvorak agrees that Microsoft is not dead, nor does he expect them to die.

  7. Re:Making sense for once by DigitalRaptor · · Score: 3, Informative

    The scroll wheel was invented by Mouse Systems, not Microsoft.

    Just because MS got a patent on it, doesn't mean they had anything to do with its creation.

    See this article for more.

    From what I can tell, MS has never innovated even once, but instead buys or steals ideas from others, or just buys the companies outright.

    --
    Lose Weight and Feel Great with Isagenix
  8. Re:Dvorak is a Goofball Gasbag by SuperRob · · Score: 4, Informative

    For someone currently using the new Office beta, and having been intimately familiar with previous versions, I'd just like to say that the learning curve is suprisingly low. I've had little problem getting going with it, and my documents look arguably more polished now since some features are better "exposed" with the ribbon.

    On the flip-side, finding the options and changing defaults is trickier if you don't know what to look for. But overall, I think the "retraining" argument doesn't hold a lot of weight.

  9. Re:he may have some valid points. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative
    You can't stop him from selling his stock, can you?

    Yes. You can. That's what the SEC is all about. If you own more than a certain amount of stock in a company, or if you are on the board, or if you have insider information, you're not allowed to just trade your stock like everyone else. You need to file a plan and get the plan approved and then turn it over to someone else to execute. If billg were to decide to sell his MS shares the SEC would probably insist on quartely limits on the trades that would make the sale take five years to execute.

  10. mods, double check parent! by qortra · · Score: 3, Informative

    Why is the parent modded insightful? Modems are all over the freaking place. Any analog large-pipe that carries data requires a modem; cable, DSL (including T1, T3, etc). If you are a home owner with internet access (and don't have FIOS), you most likely have a modem. And regardless, the point is that Hayes isn't popular anymore. With all their resources, they could have switched to home networking equipment or online multimedia or microwave macaroni and cheese, but instead they faded into obscurity.

  11. Re:Eight signs Dvorak is dead in the water by zenpiglet · · Score: 2, Informative

    "They also dropped Monad"

    Actually "Monad" is alive and well, now renamed to PowerShell.

    You can download RC1 here.

  12. Re:Dvorak is a Goofball Gasbag by Tweekster · · Score: 2, Informative

    Those are different people. I know this is a tough concept of to grasp, but slashdot is not a cohesive force all agreeing on one robust arguement.

    --
    The phrase "more better" is acceptable English. suck it grammar Nazis
  13. Dot Net initiative is fine by jbplou · · Score: 2, Informative

    His arguement is that open source systems are free. Well .Net is free so if there is a problem with system costs that is an OS issue not .Net which is free just like Java.

  14. Re:Dvorak is a Goofball Gasbag by TheNetAvenger · · Score: 2, Informative

    and it STILL won't render correctly under Vista

    Not true, don't make me post links to screen shots all over the web of Office 2007 on Vista. Do a search Office 2007 screenshot Vista

    There is title bar rendering issues with some chipset drivers under the glass model, but it was 'known' in the Office 2007 beta notes, as it wasn't even until the 'technical' release of Office 2007 that they even allowed Office 2007 to install on Vista, there is nothing happening with Office 2007 on Vista that was not disclosed or expected. Not to mention that it runs with no rendering or display issues on the majority of test installations.

    As for the UI learning curve, if tabs instead of menus confuse you, you might want to work with something other than comptuers. The Tab to Menu paradigm is the only major UI change, although it does LOOK different, so I guess that might scare people that actually HAVEN'T used it.

    So just as Dvorak, you are out to prove you have no freaking clue about what you are talking about as well?

  15. Re:Where will the giant fall? by RegularFry · · Score: 2, Informative

    There would be a real, tangible effect. If a company the size of Microsoft falls, *every single organisation* that's tied to a support contract would have to spend real money switching to an alternative. That would remove a colossal amount of spending power right across the global economy, just from the transition costs. Jobs (no, not him) would be lost, government departments would implode, and the sky would fall. Well, maybe not the last one, but there would be a bit of a dark age-ette as everyone flapped about trying to work out what to do next.

    The organisations likely to be hit worst are the truly huge ones, and that's a *big* problem. The best thing for humanity that Microsoft can do (given that they can't keep expanding) is have a plan for steady decline and breakup into complementary companies and divisions that are free to compete against each other. Of course, they won't see it that way...

    Or maybe I just need my coffee.

    --
    Reality is the ultimate Rorschach.