John Dvorak's Eight Signs MS is Dead in the Water

j79 writes "John Dvorak has written an opinion piece on why he believes Microsoft is dead in the water. He discusses Vista, Office 2007, MSN and MSN search, the Xbox 360, Pad-based computing, .Net, and Microsoft's obsession with Google. "

Comments

The obsession with Google

[RunFatBoy.net]

Is where Microsoft stopped innovating. Whenever you get into a "one-up" cold war, your thinking becomes limited to finding features that are just over what the competitor is doing and not necessarily related to what makes the life of the user easier.

MS has taken their eye off of the ball and has been concentrating on everything but the user.

Jim http://www.runfatboy.net/ -- A workout plan that doesn't feel like homework.

And soon will come the flood

[BenEnglishAtHome]

of Slashdrones denouncing Dvorak as a troll. Well, that might be right, but he's a successful troll. You can only accomplish that if you put enough truth and insight, wacky and wrongheaded though it may eventually turn out to be, into your communications as to make for interesting reading. Dvorak does that.

Take this article. I don't know about all the reasons. For example, I'm not a gamer so I don't know crap about the 360. But there's something here for everyone. He says that Vista OS and Office 2007 will be problematic letdowns. He says MSN and the MSN Search Engine are essentially useless. He points out an abandoned former focus, pad-based computing. Is there anything there that's really all that nuts?

No, there isn't. But then, like a good troll who has thrown out a couple of interesting statements to which nearly everyone can say "He's got a point," he then moves on to the provocation - Preoccupation with Google. He calls it a distraction. He tosses out opinions like they're facts. No matter how you view the relationship between Google and MS, there's something in that paragraph to disagree with.

Thus, conversation ensues. Slashdot stories get posted. Traffic gets created.

The man is a damn good troll and he deserves far more props (for that) than he gets around here.

he may have some valid points.

[yagu]

Six years ago I had a heated debate with a friend about what should be done about Microsoft. I was (and still am) adamant Microsoft needs legal throttling. Microsoft escaped by the hair of their chin with a fortuitous changing of the guard shortly after losing their DOJ battle (Clinton and Democrats to Bush and the big-money-friendly Republicans). Clearly the new regime had no appetite for any meaningful punishment for Microsoft.

My friend waved his hands and said, "Let the market forces settle it", to which I pointed out Microsoft had gained so much power and momentum that market forces may have become irrelevant.

While better late than never, I think Dvorak makes some good points, but would focus on one I think he misses the mark:

Preoccupation with Google. Microsoft is too easily distracted by successful companies who are not competitors. There is a deep-rooted belief that if a company like Google is successful, then they are an enemy per se. So the company obsesses on what Google is doing rather than concentrating on important Microsoft projects. Now Microsoft is about to do a deal with Yahoo to flank Google. This old-lady-like skittishness is unbecoming for a company this size.

I think Microsoft is right to worry about Google. Google has blind-sided Microsoft on yet another "it's the internet" facet they either glibly ignored, or just didn't see. Google has planted the seed that maybe, just maybe, the OS isn't going to be relevant in the future, thus allowing more free choice, and less dependence on Microsoft. Google's "proof" that XMLHTTPREQUEST can provide responsive web apps as stopgap technology (I can't believe that there eventually will be some better replacement) has spawned many other interesting companies and application.

Some of these "AJAX" apps are downright useful, and for the casual user, can completely replace their office suites in functionality (for their purposes), and then some (remote, network accessible from anywhere).

The amazing irony in all of this is Microsoft invented what may end up being the Silver Bullet that defeats them (XMLHTTPREQUEST). And, finally, maybe market forces will level the playing field.

Re:Doesn't matter.

[sfjoe]

In the tech industry , the market leader can lose ground EXTREMELY rapidly. Anyone seen a Hayes modem recently?

Dvorak is a Goofball Gasbag

[Philip K Dickhead]

C'mon. He is supposed to be an "expert" but doesn't know what Groove is? Lotus Notes? Gee, John. What did Ray Ozzie do at the time he was recruited?

MS is headed for diminshed expectation land - but Dvorak is like the IT version of Limbaugh. What a maroon.

Re:Dvorak is a Goofball Gasbag

[Philip K Dickhead]

The ONE thing he DOESN'T mention - also indicating he is an idiot, and has NO clue:

The Office UI is 100% different form every previous Office version. 16 years of training - down the Toilet!

I may be "better", but the adoption curve is huge, and the backlash will be tremendous. There is no "fallback" or "training-wheels" mode for the old Office UI - and it STILL won't render correctly under Vista. All of this has escaped Mr. Know-It-All Dvorak.