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Video Games and the Hi-Def Format Wars
Pika the Mad writes "Reuters has a concise but interesting article up about how video games will help decide the format war between Blu-ray and HD DVD. According to industry analysts "What Sony and Microsoft decide to announce publicly or to dealers at E3 next week will be key." So this year's E3 could very well be a deciding factor in how you view your movie library for years to come."
The real determiners of the HD format wars will be the adult DVD producers. They put out over 12000 titles a year and this is the single biggest market of content repackagers / producers.
I hate to say it, but there's really no relation. The games we play will have no relation. This is just wishful thinking on the movie industrys part. I think they are statring to realize that people just are that interested in the HD format enough to spend the additional dollars to upgrade equipment. And, as more and more people start making noise about all the DRM garbage associated, they are just going to steer away for quite a long time.
I'm quite happy with DVD for now - and I'll be damned if I'm going to buy either standard for the foreseeable future.
I mean I'd like Hi-def, but the amount it's going to cost me to upgrade and all the hassles with the competing standards, the retarded prices they'll be charging, the 'oh this can't play on your PC as we don't like the connector you're using' blah blah
I just can't be bothered. DVD'll do me fine for a few more years - and after that I'll be sticking to media-less content.
The only format war being waged now is whether to burn to single-layer DVD, dual-layer DVD, or just keep your torrented movies on 300 gig hard drives. New media formats are *so* irrelevant they're Jack Valenti.
Music industry promoted the classic black disc
Music industry promoted the tape
Music industry promoted the CD
Video/Movie industry promoted VHS/Beta
Video/Movie industry promoted DVD
Console games initially used cartridges then moved to CD then to DVD. They always had to adapt to the market directed by the music and the video industry. Actually the music industry is pretty much overwhelmed by the MP3/Internet "media". So I really think the video industry (and of course the consumers of that industry) will decide the new standard. The video game industry should adapt to that standard. Also the industry that is using a media optimally (meaning almost 100% of its capacity) will effectively promote that standard. I don't think video games will need to use 25 GB or 50 GB of data until at least 2-3 years. The video industry *actually* need that capacity.
For(k;;)(Fork();)
Honestly, I think somebody is paying all these analysts to hype the "next generation" DVD format because for now, at least, BOTH formats are too expensive, require too much investment in new equipment, and offer too little benefit to be worthwhile for at least a few more years.
....I'll tell you a little secret, though.... the hype isn't about what's best for consumers. It's about pushing new DRM onto the market to supercede the broken DRM (CSS) of DVD; that's it. The big movie companies could care less about the consumer or their experience, but if Sony and their fellow companies can sell you a new pricey $$$$$ kit along the way, why they'll do that too. In that respect, Hi-def DVD formats deserve nothing but scorn.
Perhaps if digital television had taken off a few years earlier, pushing higher-def TVs and better home theater sound into a majority of households, this might be a winning proposition... but for now, most people are quite happy with the DVD experience.
Unlike the transition between video tape and DVD, the improvements moving to HD are far more elusive, and when finally observable, are not really all that great over the "old" DVD format. Early reviews state that a clear difference is only discernable at very high screen sizes; and at the prices those extra-large format, hi-def TVs run, only the most affluent will be able to afford to see what the hype is all about.
In the end, there's no point declaring anybody a winner in "next gen" DVD until the Walmart crowd gets behind it, and "old" DVDs fade into oblivion.
The premise of the article is right - the game consoles are going to decide the winner in the "hi-def" wars.
But the article totally misses the dark horse candidate which I, with my great knowledge and keen insight of the market, predict will be the real winner.
The losers will be both BLU-RAY and HD-DVD. The winner will be downloaded content.
All of the game systems are network centric. In order to get much benefit out of any of the systems you practically have no choice but to connect them to the internet and that is typically going to be a broad-band connection too.
Combine that ubiquitous high-speed internet connectivity with the high-powered processing built into these systems and you have the ideal platform for media distribution using new highly efficient codecs like h.264.
An hour of 720p encoded with h.264 to just 1GB looks pretty good. In most cases it looks a lot better than a DVD. A low-end 1.5Mbps (DSL) connection can transfer that 1GB in under 2 hours. A mid-range 8mbps (comcast cable) connection can transfer it in less than 20 minutes, and high-end 20mbps (Verizon FIOS fibre) will do it in under 10 minutes with plenty of bandwidth to spare.
This combination of processing and network throughput will make it feasible to sell direct downloaded hi-def video to anyone with one of these game consoles.
I believe that just as MP3's portability convenience trounced the non-portable high-def audio products like SACD and DVD-Audio, so too will downloaded (possibly, but not necessarily) pay-per-view hi-def tv and movies.
Of course the quality of 1080p at 8G/hr with h.264 will be significantly better than just 720p at 1G/hr - but for many people the lower quality will be still be more than good enough, and for the videophile, waiting a little bit longer for the download of a top-notch 1080p encoding won't be a terrible inconvenience.
When information is power, privacy is freedom.
Right, I understand that. Now step back 12 feet and tell me if you can identify which is which. I cant.
turn up the jukebox and tell me a lie
Within a year more then 1million consumers will have a PS3 and therefor will generate demand for blu-ray movies.
I'm sorry, but I don't agree. PSP had its own proprietary movie format, and there are probably 1 million PSP sales to date (actually, according to Wikipedia, 10 million units as of oct 2005), yet UMD is struggling/floundering/dying. People do not yet buy video game consoles and let that drive their movie purchases. You're right, no one will buy a $300 add-on. People will just buy a $300 HD-DVD standalone unit and have both.
Kids will probably play Blu-Ray movies on their PS3. But adults still don't understand technology convergence that well. They'll want a standalone player. Don't underestimate the weirdness of the market.
Heck, the real turning point (past %50 penetration) of DVD was the DVD/VCR combo box. People were so deathgrip on the old technology that they bought both in one box.
Reason, free market capitalism, and individualism
So this year's E3 could very well be a deciding factor in how you view your movie library for years to come.
Who says I have to buy into whatever HD format they choose? Last time I checked it was still the consumer who's in charge. If nobody buys the format, it will just turn into the next LaserDisc-drops-while-VHS-puffs-on story. If I don't have an HD TV (which I don't) is there any reason for me to upgrade to a differnet format, other than lots more DRM headache?
I've already bought all the "old" movies that I like on DVD. You can't tell me that "Ghostbusters", "Big Trouble in Little China", or "This is Spinal Tap" are going to look any better in HD. The fact is, that in order for the HD-DVD's to sell, they have to release GOOD NEW movies in the format. So unless X-Men 7 or Spider-Man 5 are all that great, I don't see how they expect them to sell. They have to increase the quality of the movies before anybody is going to care. Basically I've noticed that I buy less and less new movies on DVD. Last year was a real dud, with the only new movie I liked was Wedding Crashers. and God knows we don't want to see guys like Owen Wilson in HD. 480p is just fine thank you.