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Sony vs. Microsoft, Tortoise vs. Hare
Carl Bialik from WSJ writes "Was Microsoft smart to rush out the Xbox 360 or is Sony smarter to wait and load PlayStation 3 with the latest technology? The Wall Street Journal analyzes the opposing camps' strategies; the stakes are high, as 'the Xbox group has lost billions of dollars since its start five years ago and will continue to lose money if Sony trounces Microsoft.' Several expected Microsoft announcements today, besides 'Halo 3', are meant to deliver the message that the Xbox's head-start was an advantage: 'Microsoft will also demonstrate ways for mobile phones to link with its Xbox Live service, which allows Xbox 360 users to play games with each other over the Internet. Executives will also announce new games for the Xbox Live service and are negotiating a partnership to build a "massively multiplayer" game for Live that allows thousands of people to play each other over the Internet, say people familiar with the company's plans.'"
I prefer talking about this generation as the Tortiose vs. the Hare vs. the Alien (as was used in another article). Personally I'm rooting for Alien (Nintendo) and so are most of my gamer friends even though we're skeptical about all of the companies chances.
Microsoft: It has little to no chance to make an impact in Japan and has yet to make that big of an impact in North America or Europe (and don't say this is because of shortages, if there were serious shortages you'd see sustained $1000 systems on eBay and you wouldn't find them in stores anywhere).
Sony: Sony is producing a multimedia powerhouse with some (stolen) unconventional input; as I've argued before (when people complained about the Wii's one handed controller) you can't do much with 6 axis control when your hands are together (try it, hold a book and rotate it in as many ways as you can, now try with a remote control) so I doubt the added features will be of much use. The big problem with the PS3 (in my opinion) is the Price; at $500 and $600 you're looking at 3 price cuts, and three years (if you average a price cut of $100 per year, which is pretty typical) before your average "casual" gamer is willing to buy your system.
Nintendo: Nintendo's biggest hurdle is whether the public will 'get-it'. Gamers in general understand what Nintendo is trying to do, and are either excited or at least happy that someone is trying something; I'm not so sure the Madden playing public will understand though. If you play 2-4 hours a week, and buy a game every couple of months are you going to be tired of the same crap that is being produced year after year? You can ask the same question of movies, are you better of making movies with greater acting/plot/direction or should you pack in as much special effects?