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Life After the Videogame Crash
Clark Hall writes "Is it 1983 all over again? E3 is over and millions of gamers are realizing they can't afford a PS3, or an HDTV. Is it time for a steep and painful correction in the gaming market? Pointlesswasteoftime has been tracking what is looking like a Hindenburg voyage for console gaming, with HDTV playing the role of Hydrogen." From the article: "There's going to be a lot of money lost the next few years, a lot of articles written, a lot of panic, a lot of changes. And when gaming comes back, it will hopefully be different and innovative and based on something other than eye candy and the shock value of blood and guts and hookers. Hopefully it will allow for creativity from the players, and room for small, independent game makers to create content. Hopefully it will be something every working person can afford. "
This could mean a huge boost in PC Gaming. I'm not willing to dish out $400-$500 for a console system and another couple grand for an HDTV, but I'm certainly willing to spend the money to upgrade my PC.
Looking at market trends, it's difficult to see just why there will be a big crash. Xbox360 keeps selling, massive turnout for E3, Nintendo is still selling shitloads of Nintendogs, and PS3 will definitely turn heads, no matter the price. Seriously, are these *really* signs pointing to a crash?
"all Wii games are going to do very poorly"
He said the couple non-kiddie-type games looked weak. The article's author seemed indifferent about if the Wii would be successful or not. He did say MS/Sony would bleed though.
"the Wii controller is a cheap gimmick..."
Sadly, the Wii controller 'could' turn into a cheap gimmick. We've seen them before and we'll see them well into the future. We just have time to discover if the controller's gimmick or a useful innovation.
"console hardware loses money. Yeah? And they make money back through royalties on each game sold."
I think xbox was the first platform to never break even on their hardware. Just because thats the going trend doesn't mean it can be sustained.
There'll be a tipping point where bleeding your apponent means taking losses that could potentially ruin you. Maybe Nintendo's less aggressive with the pixel pushing this cycle so that they actually turn a profit instead of just decapitate their foes. If Nintendo spend load of R&D on the system and it flops horribly it could end the company. MS/Sony have the safety net of a gigantic larger company to fall back on.
"point #3..."
The industry may not crash, but there'll be adjustments certainly. Devs and publishers will come and go.
Bye!
I see consoles getting more and more expensive and decent gaming PC's getting cheaper and cheaper. When the price of one gets close to the price of the other, how can there not be a confrontation?
Uh, maybe spread out over those five years. However, if I were going to drop $1000 on anything at once (whether it's a computer or a HDTV and console), it's going to take some saving up. I have no problem keeping a roof over my head, but I also don't have $1000 sitting there with no strings attached ready to be spent. Which leads to...
I'm saying that most people do have the money, they just don't know how to prioritize their purchases.
Out of context, this is one of the truest things ever said on Slashdot. In context, it is one of the silliest.
Maybe their priorities just don't include these items. I have no desire for an HDTV. I'd eventually like to replace my little 13" with something like a 30" (maybe even one with more than just coax input), but even that is low on my list of priorities. Sure, I *could* save up for an HDTV and PS3 in a few months, but right now that money is going into savings for travel, a house, pet care, a new laptop, among other things that are higher on my priority list than these.
Warning: Apple/Nintendo fangirl. Likes her electronics cute & cuddly. May be rabid.
a) This is not true, as any basic check of median income would have told you ("median" being the key word, because it's not as skewed by rich folks as "average" income would be).
Median (or any other measure of "average" income) has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not a family lives paycheque to paycheque. The grandparent post is actually bang on, especially in North America but also in the rest of the 1st world too. This is for several reasons:
1) Wages in most 1st world countries have almost, BUT NOT QUITE, kept pace with inflation, so employed people are making more dollars but must spend even more dollars to make ends meet.
2) People are trying to "keep up to the Jones'" again at a pace not seen since Ronald Regan ran the US. Overall "average" families are buying larger homes, driving bigger vehicles, eating more food and so on.
3) Tax load is higher--in the US the gov't has to pay for all those military operations and has a crushing debt. Income taxes are relatively low but the US consumer is nickel-and-dimed to death by state and local taxes and service fees. Sales taxes are particularly bad because they are "regressive" so those who have to spend more of ther income to live effectively pay a higher tax rate (the poorer you are the higher your tax rate basically). Canadians are even more heavily taxed, although most of it comes right off your paycheque.
4) As a result of the above household debt is at a record high--on average US household debt load is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT of disposable income! Basically this means that if you add up the value of all the assets (house, cars, investments, etc) then subtract liabilities (mortgage, credit cards, loans, etc) that the average family is IN THE NEGATIVE by the same amount as their combined annual after-tax income!
The Atari VCS cost $249 when it was first launched. That's more than $800 in today's dollars. You were lucky to find a 19" TV set for $500 - about $1,500 in today's dollars.
Early adopters tended to be upper-middle class or even rich. $800 is still not that much today for them. What is different today is that the Atari was exciting, new and different from anything before--until 1978 basically all you could get was pong and Oddysey (hardwired to play one or a handful of very simple games). The "Fairchild Channel F" was the only cart-based console until the VCS and it was hard to find and had a small library of crappy games. Also The VCS situation was very different from the XBox360 or Wii or PS3. Back then going from pong to being able to play Space Invaders and Breakout (the hottest arcade games of the time) right in your home was amazing. What do we get now with these expensive new machines? Umm...well I guess I can play NFL football 2006 instead of NFL football 2005 and umm..you can see the players sweating and the picture will be clearer...if you buy a new HDTV. There isn't much there motivating average people to run out any buy these next-gen consoles yet. These new consoles are a bit like the Intellivision situation--when the Intellivision II came out it gathered dust on the store shelves because owners of the original Intellivision didn't see anything compelling about it (it looked prettier and talked if you had one of the handful of games that supported it--and the original intellivision could talk too if you got an add-on).
As for the TV, almost nobody had to buy a new one to take advantage of the VCS' capabilities--WAY more people owned 19" colour console sets in 1978 than currently own full-resolution HDTV sets today, and not many people will spend twice the money just to get a TV that makes their console look nice--and besides that crisper image there isn't much out there yet to get excited about.
I'm saying that most people do have the money, they just don't know how to prioritize their purchases.
Maybe they DO know how to prioritise--in fact maybe better than they did in the late 70's and early 80's. As you mentioned there is also
Who said I was getting a Wii? At least, this year. I just got a GameCube, I'm good til the price drops to $100. I only got the GC because I was finally running out of games on my SNES. I may be a fangirl, but I'm a cheapass fangirl.
Warning: Apple/Nintendo fangirl. Likes her electronics cute & cuddly. May be rabid.