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Shuttle to Launch Despite Objections

sam0ht writes "NASA has just named July 1st as the launch date for the space shuttle Discovery, a year after the last shuttle mission. Last July's mission was the first since the break-up of Columbia in 2003, but after foam again broke away from the main tank, the shuttle fleet was grounded. More foam has been removed from the main tank, but NASA staff are divided over whether this is enough to ensure the flight's safety, with some reporting that both the lead engineer and top safety official are against launching again so soon. Managers want to make only one major change at a time, and plan that if damage does occur, the crew would be able to stay in the International Space Station, to which they are delivering supplies, rather than trying to land a damaged shuttle."

23 of 314 comments (clear)

  1. Common sense by Solra+Bizna · · Score: 4, Insightful
    ...both the lead engineer and top safety official are against launching again so soon.

    If this thing blows up, guess who're going to be blamed for it?

    -:sigma.SB

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    1. Re:Common sense by WindBourne · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Everybody except the top ppl. For some odd reason, the day of the the buck stops here is now that shit flows downhill.

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    2. Re:Common sense by Rich0 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Any project is a compromise between quality, cost, and timeline. The goal is to balance these goals appropriately. I've seen many a bureaucracy where you have a QA group who has to sign off on all code, but they only get rewarded on the basis of how few issues come back to haunt them and not on how many projects get done. Therefore, their goal is to avoid signing anything at all - they would get the best bonsues if no code were released at all - since then nothing would fail. On the other hand you get a project leader whose only goal is to get the code out the door so that he can get a promotion before the complaints start rolling in.

      Why companies can't just give people incentives to relase code when it is ready and not before or after I can't understand...

    3. Re:Common sense by Breakfast+Pants · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Completely depends on your metric. Fatality per mile, the shuttle is no doubt kicking cars' ass.

      --

      --

      WHO ATE MY BREAKFAST PANTS?
    4. Re:Common sense by Rich0 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Ok, for those who didn't see the relevance - in this case you have engineers saying don't launch, and managers saying launch. It is in the interests of the engineers to never certify a launch - that way they can say "I told you so" if it blows up - as one of the parent posts pointed out.

      The point is that if somebody is only going to get beat up if the launch fails, and there is no penalty for unnecessarily cancelling a launch, then you're going to get nothing but no-go decisions. These engineers are working in government posts - the only way they lose their job is if they mess up. A mess up is defined as an exploding space shuttle. A deorbiting ISS is also a mess up, but in a different department. Therefore the shuttle support engineers are best off just leaving the thing on the pad while they tinker with designs until retirement.

      I'm sure many or most of the engineers dont' have this attitude outright - but the incentives are probably aligned this way - so deadlock is going to be the way things go until the shuttle is retired...

    5. Re:Common sense by tftp · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Fatality per mile, the shuttle is no doubt kicking cars' ass.

      Possibly. But "fatality per ride" is kinda high (2%). If you drive your car to work and back, and on weekends to friends and back, then you would be dead, on average, within 1-2 months.

    6. Re:Common sense by NecroPuppy · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Government folks (non-contracted) abhor responsibility and accountability.

      Not really.

      It's just that by various laws, we (government employees) can't take that responsibility.

      Take your average government contract. Of the government side people working on the contract or with the contracted group, a very small subset of them are actually authorized and allowed to make changes no matter how much sense there may be to make those changes. The average government employee may be held liable for a stop work order or a contract change, when they don't have the authority to make it. So yeah, there is some passing of the buck in that regard.

      And yeah, there are idiots like you describe who pull a 4 hour day and fill out a time card for 8 hours. But I saw the same thing in the private sector, and worse. At least government side, the people I work with know what we have, so they don't end up ordering a bunch of stuff that walks out the door as soon as it gets shipped in.

      But, at least in my small part of the government world, we come in when the job demands. If that means working over holidays, pulling a 24 hour day or more, or whatever is needed to make the fleet go, then we do it.

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  2. grow a pair by v1 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If this group was in charge of the appolo missions we'd still be doing near earth orbital testing.

    Space is dangerous, expensive, and offers very few good opportunities. If you want to get anywhere you have to take risks. I'm not saying that people should just throw their lives away for nothing, but every trip they make into space breaks new ground and teaches them new lessons. If you want the rewards you have to be prepared to walk away with a bloddy nose now and again, especially in a game like this.

    It may be harsh, but I would say that if they are trying to make space travel 100% safe, it's just plain never going to happen. Right now I think we should be happy with 90%. From a purely practical perspective, if a dozen people lose their lives to accellerate the space program 10 years, I would call that a good trade. And I'd be happy to be one of those 12.

    --
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    1. Re:grow a pair by Pyromage · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yeah, but keep in mind the Challenger, as an example: they launched *knowing it was dangerous*. And guess what happened? It was!

      The crew know what they signed up for, probably better than any other explorer ever has. But knowing the normal risks they run isn't the same as asking them to go up when they know the thing that brought the shuttle down last time hasn't been fixed!

    2. Re:grow a pair by murrdpirate · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exactly. We have a pretty good safety record considering what we're doing. It gets more and more expensive and takes more and more time to reach slightly higher safety levels when we're as high as we are. I think it might be safer in the long run to try to reach a reasonable safety level of around 90% and actually get some experience. We've been doing the same stuff for decades, if it was acceptable then, why isn't it acceptable now?

    3. Re:grow a pair by stratjakt · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The thing that brought the shuttle down really cant be fixed.

      It may not strike a chunk of foam, but hey, it might smack a big old bird on the way up, ro get nicked by a meteorite or some space-junk.

      They are going up this time with a contingency plan to possibly repair such damage after it happened, but it's always going to be dangerous.

      --
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    4. Re:grow a pair by HaloZero · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And when Thirteen blew up due to a bad tank coil - 2/3rds of the way to the moon - they actually FIXED the problem before Fourteen left the pad.

      Yes, it's perfectly dangerous, but there's no reason to make it worse by not performing your due dilligence, and building a spaceworthy craft. Yes, there are going to be problems, but there's something to be said for learning from your mistakes.

      --
      Informatus Technologicus
    5. Re:grow a pair by Pyromage · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's certainly true, but just because there's other dangers doesn't mean it's smart to ignore the ones in your control. You may not be able to stop birds and meteorites, but the foam we *can* stop, and it's irresponsible for us to not.

    6. Re:grow a pair by Alien+Being · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That's an unfair comparison. The explosion on Apollo 13 was the result of straightforward engineering and manufacturing errors. The shuttle suffers from an inherent design flaw.

  3. Re:Rules of Shuttle Flight by kimvette · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You got it wrong. It's:

          1. cut funding
          2. ignore the engineers and launch anyhow
          3. blame the engineers when something goes wrong
          4. State the problem is not what even high-school dropouts suspect is the problem
          5. Ignore the engineers for weeks until it becomes patently obvious to even idiots that the problem engineers warned about and laypersons expected was the problem IS the problem

    --
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  4. Re:Rules of Shuttle Flight by alshithead · · Score: 3, Insightful

    You forgot... 6. Have Congress rape NASA's budget further by requiring earmarks for their favorite local pet projects having any kind of a "space" theme.

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  5. Re:Indirect investment in ISS, Management Decision by sunspot42 · · Score: 4, Insightful


    Spending money on the ISS is a good thing.

    Why? The ISS is going to cost US taxpayers in excess of $100 billion, to boldly sit where Skylab has sat before. Since we don't currently have a reliable manned booster to rotate crew on and off the station (having trashed the working, reliable, relatively inexpensive and more powerful Apollo launcher for the unreliable, outrageously expensive Shuttles), or a reliable means of emergency escape, the ISS is limited to 3 crewmembers on a longterm basis. That's barely enough staff to keep the station running, which means there's virtually no science taking place aboard the station.

    I say abandon the ISS now, along with the Shuttles, and divert those tens of billions of dollars into designing and building a state-of-the-art launcher utilizing the lessons learned from the successful Apollo program and those parts of the Shuttle program (such as the engines) which have proven worthwhile. Or spend that money on researching and developing tech which could dramatically lower the cost of access to space, such as carbon nanotube structures or new propulsion technologies. Either would be a far better use of taxpayer money than the useless ISS or the expensive, unreliable Shuttle, which I believe are now up to a billion dollars a launch, making them the most expensive launcher ever by a wide margin. We could launch fleets of astronauts into space aboard Russia's safer Soyuz booster for the price of a single Shuttle launch. Like the ISS, the Shuttle is a crippled dog and needs to be put out of its (and our) misery.

  6. Kill it now. by Gary+W.+Longsine · · Score: 4, Insightful

    They got the Shuttle to last nearly 30 years by flying it dramatically less often than planned, and spending dramatically more than planned to fly it at all. Reliable, frequent, and affordable access to space can only happen by euthanizing the Shuttle program.

    --
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  7. What's the Problem Lately? by Hercules+Peanut · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'm sure I'll get slammed for this but, well who cares. I remember watching the first shuttles go up. It seemed like we flew a lot of shuttle missions without any problems (sans Challenger, I know BIG PROBLEM). The point is that it seems like problems are far more common now with all of the new tech and more importantly lessons learned than in the old days.

    What's happened? Did we redesign something? Are they so old that the parts are wearing out and we can't replace them as well as we built them to begin with? Are we just publicizing problems more now than we used to? I haven't seen anything to tell me why it seems we can't launch a shuttle without something faling off when the old ones flew without a publicized hitch.

    Anyone?

    1. Re:What's the Problem Lately? by tftp · · Score: 3, Insightful
      What's happened? Did we redesign something?

      Yes. Most of Shuttle's electronics had been upgraded, probably more than once.

      Are they so old that the parts are wearing out and we can't replace them as well as we built them to begin with?

      Yes. It was reported many times that they found cracks in these cryogenic tubes, in those control wires, in that RSS panel, and so on. That is on top of regularly scheduled replacement of parts. Some of these parts can not be made exactly as they were made 30 years ago. Metals and alloys changed, CNC mills changed, cooling oil for those mills changed, milling bits' material changed - and all that can affect everything. Worse with electronic parts - you can't buy today many components that were mainstream 5 years ago - they are not made any more, fabs ripped apart and upgraded to new technology. So you need that old i80186 silicon rev B2 ? Tough luck.

      Are we just publicizing problems more now than we used to?

      Probably so. NASA top echelons graduated from engineering to politics, and when an engineer would be searching for a technical solution these folks are searching for a PR solution, as if one can talk a machine into not failing.

  8. This ain't the NASA of the moonshot by Opportunist · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The moonshot was a "fuck money, whatever it takes to get there" project. They got the best people, the best equipment, priority funding and restrictions simply didn't exist. Success was paramount. Failure was no option, whatever the cost, no failure may happen, for this is a fight of ideology.

    Now, this changed big time. NASA gets the people it can afford, it gets the equipment the contractors that bid lowest and offer the best counter-contracts offer, they receive funding whenever something's left from the bomb budget and they have to deal with environmental restrictions and people complaining about the noise of their testing facilities.

    Space flight has turned from a prestige object into a business. It has to try to be profitable. Now, it is VERY hard to actually be directly profitable in manned space flight. The moonshot did boost economy and quickened development in many, military as well as civilian, areas, especially we, in the IT biz, would be far from where we're today without the space program.

    But today, everything, even science, has to be profitable. That's the big problem with the NASA today. They aren't "worse" than they were in the 60s, they don't slack or work more sluggish. It's just not space race time anymore.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  9. Re:Rules of Shuttle Flight by timeOday · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Are engineers on the line for effectiveness, or just safety? If safety is the only consideration, the obvious course of action is never to fly.

  10. Re:Indirect investment in ISS, Management Decision by mrchaotica · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Since we don't currently have a reliable manned booster to rotate crew on and off the station...

    Yeah we do; it's called the Soyuz. There's no reason why we can't just build a bunch of them instead of continuing to launch overgrown school buses at the thing!

    See, that's the big problem with NASA. They're stuck in this stupid mentality where they think they either have to use the Shuttle or design something brand new and impossibly perfect. That's a false dichotomy. Any replacement for the Shuttle doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be better than the Shuttle. Freakin Apolllo fits that description; they could just build some more of those! And all they'd have to do is change the shape of the hatch to be compatible with the ISS and run the sucker off a graphing calculator instead of the heavy 60's-era computer technology.

    --

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