Supercomputer Models Sun's Corona Dynamics

gihan_ripper writes "Researchers from San Diego are using supercomputers to accurately predict the shape of the Sun's corona, based on magnetic field data from the photosphere. It is hoped that this model will enable us to predict Coronal Mass Ejections. When CMEs reach the Earth, they produce geomagnetic storms and can wreak havoc with communcations, GPS, and power networks. In the decade or so, the researchers hope to be able to predict CME collisions with the Earth and determine their impact."

Comments

Re:Awesome!

[Maelwryth]

HAARP is working in it right now. It might take some time though because they are one series of earthquakes and a rather large lightning strike behind this year. Not to mention the alien request to study us "sans atmosphere", but thats due after christmas.

Re:Awesome!

[helioquake]

That's like launching a nuke into a Category 5 hurricane.

Actually the scale is more like launching a big firework.

No worry, though, Earth's magnetic field is a pretty good shield.

Re:What we could do even we could predict it?

[helioquake]

The satellites which would be severely affected by CMEs are most probably located at geo-synchronous orbit. To bring one closer to Earth, you will have to (1) move it closer to the Earth, and then (2) you also have to slow it down because, as it gets closer to Earth with its angular momentum still conserved (imagine the ice-skater's spinning with and without the arms stretched), the satellite would undergo a faster revolution around the Earth. If you don't slow it down, it'll sling back out to a higher orbit.

Many GPS satellites are orbiting in low-Earth orbits. Those are protected by Earth's magnetic field (most of the time) and will be fine against a regular CME.

Just ask Hactar

[bananaendian]

Researchers from San Diego are using supercomputers to accurately predict the shape of the Sun's corona.

In other news researchers are using supercomputers to accurately predict the weather, earthquakes and the stockmarket.

We already have a perfectly good satellite based early warning system for predicting Space Weather. Trouble is the damn thing keeps knocking them out. I think we should skip this trivial phase of technology and move directly to space weather control. I reckon all we need is to turn up the volume in HAARP or hire these guys.

Re:Sounds like trying to predict the weather

[dickko]

"The equations underlying weather prevent one from ever accurately..."

Um, there are no equations underlying weather. There are equations that model weather patterns, however (I presume that's what you meant...). These current models are limited by, for example, available processing power. New technologies allow for alternative models, which may be more accurate at making predictions about future weather patterns. So to say that "It's going to remain short" is a bit short-sighted.

Here's why prediction is useful

[gihan_ripper]

The benefit in knowing collision dates is that we'll be able to partially protect our assets from the storm. For example, power companies can issue a planned outage, taking their transformers off-line for a brief period during the storm in order to prevent a longer outage caused by damage.

This is like our desire to know how the (terrestrial) weather is going to behave, even though we can't influence it. Advance warning helps us to prepare for adverse weather.

Re:Here's why prediction is useful

[GapingHeadwound]

CME prediction *may* also be useful to virology. The frequencies of CMEs vary with sunspot cycle (~11 year period). Moreover, solar radiation has biological impact as well and sunspot cycles (and thus, CMEs) have been strongly corelated with flu epidemics and pandemics: 1918 Spanish Flu, 1957-58 Asian Flu, etc.

The idea is as straightforward as radiation inducing viral mutation. We are currently at the low point in the cycle. The current, highly pathogenic H5N1 (a subtype/mutation of the Influenza A virus) and SARS both coincided with most recent peak in sunspot activity (mid 1998-2003).

If we are on the brink of a pandemic as several virologists suggest, there is a good likelihood that predicting CMEs could help in anticipating viral mutation vectors. A stockpile of engineered viral subtypes and mutations could thus be used to engineer vaccines preventatively. Every little bit helps, right?

So CME prediction may be useful if you assume that interfering with pandemics is a Good Thing. It might not be... who am I to judge? All the same, I'm looking to survive the next pandemic. I'd rather not die from drowning in my own fluids or other some such fun.

Then again, if the flu Came From Outer Space! then I suppose the usefulness of CME prediction remains with telecoms and power companies.

Re:What we could do even we could predict it?

[s31523]

I doubt even moving satellites would do anything, since large CME effect things on the earths surface.. If we could accurately predict a strong CME, here are some things that could be done, derived from Geomagnetic storm definition:

1.) Send NOTAM's to pilots that Navgiation systems will be shutdown or disrupted during time X through time Y. Advise on an alternate navigation procedure.

2.) Get the astronauts out of space; The increased radiation might kill them.

3.) Figure out (another simulation) what will happen in the ionosphere so that better GPS and or WAAS corrections can be made

4.) Reduce power output on electrical grids, since CME can induce current; Remember the big power outage in 1989?

5.) Shutdown pipeline and anything like that; the CME can induce current in the pipes and cause bad flowrates to be sent to computers controlling things and that might be bad.

Re:Awesome!

[Leebert]

I would think that a sizeable nuclear detonation (at the right time and place) would cause a pressure wave powerful enough to disrupt the dynamo that is the low pressure center of a hurricane, and dissipate it.

No. See: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html

Space weather prediction from space...

[Dr. Zowie]

The problem is that NOAA doesn't actually own the main satellites that it is using -- ACE (for solar wind sampling) and SOHO (for solar imaging) are both NASA satellites that are intended for research. SOHO and ACE deliver real-time data on an as-available basis. They don't have the same level of reliability and systems redundancy that a weather satellite would have.

Perhaps more importantly, both ACE and SOHO are aging (SOHO is nearly 11 years old, compared to its original 2-year mission) and there is no currently planned mission to replace the space-weather-relevant instruments (the coronagraph on SOHO and the solar wind samplers on ACE) when those instruments ultimately fail. (the Solar Dynamics Observatory has surface imaging but no coronagraph).