Howard Rheingold On Our Mobile World

Roland Piquepaille writes "Howard Rheingold is the well-known author of "Smart Mobs" and many other books describing the evolution of our societies. His last book predicted the transformation of our society into a mobile one. Four years later, his forecast is more than confirmed. As one of the futurologists who can detect the emerging technology trends behind our daily lives, I wanted to know what Howard was thinking in 2006. He was kind enough to agree for an interview which was conducted by e-mail in mid-June. We discuss the importance of mobile technology, blogs, the changing climate, and the future of surveillance" From the article: "The power of the technologies packed into mobile devices continues to multiply, the diffusion of devices to all parts of the world and socioeconomic strata broadens, the spread of knowledge about how to use technologies to organize political, economic, social, cultural collective action quickens. It is in the convergence of the technical, cognitive, and social forces generates that the real power of smart mobs -- for both constructive and destructive."

Comments

Just Criticism

[Umbral Blot]

First let me point out that given 2006 is now the sentance "I wanted to know what Howard was thinking in 2006" should be written as "I wanted to know what Howard is thinking now", unless I have been unknowningly sucked into a time warp.

Secondly if that quote is representative of the article as a whole then I say stay far far away from TFA on this one, since that 4 line quote translates to: Technology will make things change faster, and online communities will become more important. Since that is what he predicted originally it doesn't seem like he has anything new to say. (except perhaps to add more buzzwords into the fray)

Re:Just Criticism

[Umbral Blot]

Here's another gem from the article: "I'm concentrating on continuing to catalyze an interdisciplinary study of cooperation and collective action, and creating curricula for teaching young people about civic engagement through the use of participatory media." which translates to: I'm still studying collective action, as well as teaching kids to use gadgets to get involved with their communities. Go buzzwords go!

Slashdot does it again!

[Anonymous Coward]

Once Again

Slashdot shows its support for Roland Piquepaille by sending its hoards to his advertising based site.

When will those slashdot fools learn?

My predictions

[dotslashdot]

I predict that in 2007 this guy will be making future predictions about which an interviewer will ask him what he was thinking in 2007 which someone on slashdot will correct and which will be followed by a new prediction by dotslashdot about the guy's 2008 prediction.

The other end of the stick

[DrSkwid]

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/07/21/whatever_h appened_to_smartphones/

Whatever happened to... the smartphone?

A few years ago an American business consultant and author published a very silly book called 'Smart Mobs' - which even predicted that phone-toting nerds would be at the vanguard of social upheaval.

But something funny happened on the way to this digital nirvana. Perhaps the signs were there from the start: 'Smart Mobs' couldn't find a UK publisher. A website of the same name continues, however, apparently staffed by volunteers, and making its ghostly way across the web like a latter day Marie Celeste. Alas the site still has a category called "How To Recognize The Future When It Lands On You.

Re:The other end of the stick

[pieterh]

Very good article from the Reg.

Here's one counter argument: the Blackberry. It's basically a smartphone. The missing piece was not networks, price, features, etc. It was focus. The Blackberry demonstrates how to make a successful smartphone: you package useful technology in a usable and simple form. It does not have to be cheap.

I'm also using a Nokia E70, my third 'seagull' Nokia. And to my own surprise, I'm surfing the net with it. I bought it because I like writing notes on the fly. But it has built-in wifi, so gets connected whenever I can find a hotspot. And I've gotten it working with Orange UK's 1UKP/day unlimited GPRS internet. It's slow but acceptable. Gmail provides a really efficient mobile mail interface and a mobile map application that works well enough to let me find my way around big cities like London.

What's happening is that the "smartphone" market, pushed by telcos and self-styled gurus like Rheingold, is in fact coming to life, because after the hype and the WAP and the other technology-driven failures, we are entering the period of demand-driven innovation. I can see the smartphone market fragmenting into several clear niches, which is a sign that it's maturing:

  - portable text/email (Blackberry)
  - mobile Microsoft (that's a niche all in itself)
  - general-purpose mobile computers (wifi, voip, Symbian)
  - dumb media phones (camera, MP3)

Telco's are particularly bad for trying to push technology-driven products that they believe will make them money but which no-one wants because they're too complex. It takes other manufacturers to build products on top of those technologies, and since only a minority of products ever make it to market, this is why we have such a gap between new communications technologies being announced, and people actually using them.

In simple terms: I don't want GPRS, I want mobile gmail and google maps.

Think like

[William Robinson]

The professor of a contract law class asked one of his better students, "If you were to give someone an orange, how would you go about it?"

The student replied, "Here's an orange."

The professor was outraged. "No! No! Think like a lawyer!"

The student then replied, "Okay. I'd tell him `I hereby give and convey to you all and singular, my estate and interests, rights, claim, title, claim and advantages of and in, said orange, together with all its rind, juice, pulp, and seeds, and all rights and advantages with full power to bite, cut, freeze and otherwise eat, the same, or give the same away with and without the pulp, juice, rind and seeds, anything herein before or hereinafter or in any deed, or deeds, instruments of whatever nature or kind whatsoever to the contrary in anywise notwithstanding...'"

In another classroom, professor asked his best student. "If you have to predict impact of technology on society, how would you go?"

He said "There will be more features in mobile"

The professor was outraged. "No! No! Think like a Howard Rheingold!"

The student then replied,"Okay. The power of the technologies packed into mobile devices continues to multiply, the diffusion of devices to all parts of the world and socioeconomic strata broadens, the spread of knowledge about how to use technologies to organize political, economic, social, cultural collective action quickens. It is in the convergence of the technical, cognitive, and social forces generates that the real power of smart mobs -- for both constructive and destructive"

Shotgun Futurology

[pieterh]

I never liked reading Rheingold because he always said the most obvious things using the most buzzwords possible. Very tiring, like one long endless Wired article.

The future is always easy to predict, only the details seems to go wrong.

Yes, people will continue to get more and more interconnected, as every phone turns into a full-on mobile computer/camera complete with infinite memory, as social life moves more and more into the virtual world. Yes, the old patterns of mass movement to work will end as oil continues to cost more and more. No, electric cars won't solve anything. Yes, Japan will produce life-like robots but it'll be small firms in the US and France that produce the bots that finally make it into every home, and they'll be toys, tools, avatars, and for some people, friends. Yes, nuclear power will make a big comeback. No, it won't power our cars. Yes, China and India are going to become information superpowers. No, they won't toppled the US from its throne. Yes, there will be a lot of war in the future, and a lot of it will be fragmented, because just as mobile phones disrupt the traditional social forms, they also disrupt fighting. "Smart armies"? Give them all Blackberries. Yes, there will be a nuclear terrorist attack. No, it won't be in New York or Washington, but probably in Delhi or Tehran. Yes, Linux will take Windows off the desktop, but really not in the way you'd expect. No, no-one will care when it happens. Yes, there will be a black US president one day. No, she won't be a republican.

The future is not so hard to predict - just look at all the domains where people are competing hardest to innovate, then assume ten years of progress, slower than you'd expect but more profound than you'd believe possible, and then see how people would use those changes to improve and simplify their lives.

It does not take buzzwords.