'Long Tail' May Not Wag the Web Just Yet

Carl Bialik from WSJ writes "Expanding on an article he wrote in 2004 (and discussed on Slashdot), Wired magazine editor Chris Anderson argues in his best-seller 'The Long Tail' that the web is changing commerce from a hit-driven business to one focused on niches. But Wall Street Journal columnist Lee Gomes questions Anderson's data, and adds, 'I don't think things are changing as much as he does.' Gomes writes, 'At Apple's iTunes, one person who has seen the data -- which Apple doesn't disclose -- said sales "closely track Billboard. It's a hits business. The data tend to refute 'The Long Tail.' " ' On his blog, Anderson responds that Gomes 'stumbles over statistics and more, and in the end simply makes a muddle of what might have been an interesting debate over the magnitude of the Long Tail effect.'"

Comments

missing the point

[blamanj]

The point of the "long tail" isn't that the sales stop being weighted towards the "hits". You still have a power-law distribution, that doesn't change. The point is that today, the distribution is artificially restricted, because items are dropped from availability. When you extend the number of products available, you make more money from the "tail" products and the portion that came from the original set of hits is smaller.

Flawed Argument

[twofidyKidd]

Citing the iTunes store as representative of anything but a "Hits Business" is flawed. I think consumers who represent the statistics in the long tail don't shop at the iTunes store. While I know it's not a vaild argument to cite what my own purchasing practices are, I for one spend a lot less on music at iTunes and more at places like Om Records, Defected, and other independent label online stores. In fact, if I do purchase at iTunes, it's usually a very popular song which is consistent with iTunes being in the "Hits Business". The arguer is right about that, but wrong about who it accurately represents.