Zune - Microsoft Killer or Next Apple Victim?

prophet asks: "Now that we have all seen the new Microsoft 'Zune', and the suits over at Microsoft have seen fit to inform us of a whole line of 'Zune' related hardware and software products, my real question is, will Microsoft be able to de-throne the ever growing iPod phenom? With the current confirmed 'Zune' prototype photos dispersed throughout the net, it is hard to see how Microsoft has thought that the current design of the 'Zune' is in fact enough in its current form for users to be pleased aesthetically, and at the same time impressed by ease of use. At the current moment, rumors are circulating of a redesign of the controls on Microsoft's part before a complete release. With the current aesthetical design of the Zune, will it appeal to the masses in the way the iPod did? More importantly, does it appeal to you?

Comments

Microsoft != Apple

[RLiegh]

Microsoft has spent too many years chasing after corporate/enterprise appeal, whereas apple has always worked to maintain a hipper, more artsy appeal (which is all the macs have now they're intel-based, but I digress). For that reason, apple had a better idea of what the kids want, and the kids were more receptive to the ipod than they're ever gonna be to zune whatever.

In short, MS has neither the credibility, nor understanding of what the market they're selling to wants (unless you consider "their market" to be the content industry, as opposed to consumers). It won't kill MS, but apple has no reason to loose any sleep either.

Re:Microsoft != Apple

[kfg]

. . .unless you consider "their market" to be the content industry. . .

That is exactly where Microsoft see their market.

This has nothing to do with products or services, Microsoft is waging war to be the default DRM source, to get a cut of every "media" sale from every source.

They want one big check from Time-Warner, not a godzillion little checks from those annoying consumers.

KFG

Re:Microsoft != Apple

[kfg]

The combination of digital encoding and the Internet have freed the reproduction and distribution of "content." There are people who have been making a damned fine living from controling said reproduction and distribution.

You can't expect them to be happy about things. If they can't maintain a form of "natural" monopoly (given that copyright isn't actually natural) they'll take an artificial one through DRM.

What might be less obvious is that they aren't exactly thrilled with Apple's paying customers either. They aren't making much money on it and Steve is emerging as an outsider dictating terms to the industry that depends on control.

They'll be pefectly happy to play divide and conquer, playing Steve and Bill off against each other while they search for some form of DRM under the control of an industry entity, as per the DVD Forum.

Of course if any of them win you know who loses.

KFG

Good Luck...

[MBCook]

You're gonna need it.

It won't succeed. They are aiming after something that is WAY too popular and extremely well designed. To get people off the iPod, you're going to have to pass it and that will be very tough with current technology (especially batteries).

But let's talk about the BIG feature. Let's talk about something people have been wanting from the iPod for quite a while. Let's talk wireless. People say Zune will be able to buy and download music wirelessly.

It won't.

I read a report earlier today that said that was a misunderstanding and that basically the wireless functionality was to let you see what OTHER people with Zunes in the area were listening to. I read a little blurb that one of the low end MP3 player makers was looking at doing the same thing (only not using WiFi for it). Or are we supposed to surf the 'net on this thing too? Guess what, my PDA does that. So does my phone. And my DS. And my PSP. And my laptop. And that desktop over there. And...

That is a BIG difference between telling people what you're listening to and buying new music.

And I'm not surprised. To do that would require a ton of power. The WiFi on my Dell Axim X50v eats up battery life, that's why it's off unless I'm using it. You'd have to do the same thing, which would somewhat defeat the "buy music any time" idea. Plus, when downloading music (lots of data!) it would use a large amount of battery. You want wireless headphones instead? So do I! But then you have to keep bluetooth running which will use up power. Plus your wireless headphones are expensive and need batteries. Two sets of batteries to recharge and fail for the price of one!

Watch TV/Movies? The iPod does it.

Look at the proposed updates to the iPod. A touch screen? That's a little pointless (unless they make it into the new Newton).

And let's not forget the iTMS lock-in problem. The people who spend the most on iTMS are probably the ones you want most (because they will buy from you/your partners). But they are also the ones with the most to lose from abandoning the iPod. So you have to give away free music for every song that they bought. Fun logistics there. And you don't think the RIAA will let you do that for FREE do you?

Bob has $200 in iTMS music. He moves to Zune. MS gives him his music in their DRMed format. They just paid the RIAA the same "taxes" as if he spent $200 with them. Don't forget the hardware probably isn't high margin (like the iPod) and may even be close to even (so it's fancier for the $$$ compared to the iPod). You just lost money on that customer. What a way to make money!

Until DRM gets outlawed, Apple somehow screws up royally, or batteries improve enough to allow some of the features not useful now (wireless, longer movie playback)... Apple will remain on top.

Their position is just too strong (combined with MS's history) for me to think that Zune will change anything in the market any time soon.

PS: I have heard Zune will abandon "Plays For Sure" for something else. Considering MS did that, I'm sure that the successor will be supported for a LONG time. Sheesh.

PPS: Changing DRM to force everyone to buy a new player. Not something I can see Apple doing. MS might be considering it (given their market share is much lower but still...)