Backward Sunspot Heralds Next Solar Cycle

GoramFrackinWacko writes "A backward sunspot chronicled on July 31st heralds the next solar cycle, and it looks to be a big one! From the article: 'Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades. Sunspots and solar flares will return in abundance, producing bright auroras on Earth and dangerous proton storms in space.'"

Comments

wishing for news

[yagu]

This story reminds me of the recent "predictions" of a potentially devastating hurricane season with greater than average frequency hurricanes and more of these hurricanes being Category 5 (the strongest hurricane defined). On what basis?

On the buzz around global warming and its effect on hurricanes among other things, and the recent "example" season of a record-breaking number of hurricanes. So, naturally the prediction for this season was "lots of big hurricanes". I'm not sure, but so far I don't recall any hurricanes well into the season, but if you watch the Weather Channel, they're almost praying for some... The recent "tracking" of Chris showed almost despondent correspondents (pretending to show relief at Chris' dissipation) when Chris fizzled.

Similarly with sun spots, sun cycles and predictable sun cycle behaviors. We know more than ever about the sun, but the more we know the less we know how to predict what it's going to do. This is an interesting story in that stories about the sun and sun spots are inherently interesting (in my opinion). But, from the article: Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades.... That is purely conjecture -- no more likely to be correct than not. Especially when considering the builtin caveat from the article:

First, the sunspot lasted only three hours. Typically, sunspots last days, weeks or even months. Three hours is fleeting in the extreme. "It came and went so fast, it was not given an official sunspot number," says Hathaway. The astronomers who number sunspots didn't think it worthy!

Second, the latitude of the spot is suspicious. New-cycle sunspots almost always pop up at mid-latitudes, around 30o N or 30o S. The backward sunspot popped up at 13o S. "That's strange."

Makes for good news though -- something scary to be afraid of.

Re:wishing for news

[andrewman327]

Glad to hear a voice of reason. The media love to hype potential stories for maximum effect.

If the writeup is correct, however, we could get some awesome Northern Lights. The negative repercussions would most likely be limited to fleeting disruptions in some radio traffic. Some phone calls and television feeds may have momentary issues, but even at its worst I doubt all of the doomsday predictions that claim we will arrive back at the stone age from having everything in orbit nuked.

Above all you must remember this: Don't Panic!

Re:wishing for news

[thatguywhoiam]

This story reminds me of the recent "predictions" of a potentially devastating hurricane season with greater than average frequency hurricanes and more of these hurricanes being Category 5 (the strongest hurricane defined). On what basis?

Science. NOAA's instruments. Historical patterns. New data. In other words, our most educated guess.

Sure they're wrong sometimes, but the fact that the science is imperfect does not warrant discounting these observations altogether.

Re:wishing for news

[timster]

Inside the article there is a link to an article about why they are planning for a more intense solar cycle. It's not "purely conjecture".

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stor mwarning.htm

Re:wishing for news

[Red Flayer]

... but if you watch the Weather Channel, they're almost praying for some... The recent "tracking" of Chris showed almost despondent correspondents (pretending to show relief at Chris' dissipation) when Chris fizzled.

Hurricanes are exciting, especially to people who study them. Weather correspondents make a living based on phenomena like hurricanes -- so why wouldn't they be disappointed?

Also, dire predictions boost ratings and sell airtime. This is why the chance of snowfall is always hyped in the winter, etc.

Sure, thanks for pointing out that some people in all fields have a predilection for sensationalism -- but anyone who doesn't take all such predictions with a grain of salt needs some critical thinking skills.

I'm not sure, but so far I don't recall any hurricanes well into the season

Just as anecdotal evidence is not proof of something, anecdotal evidence is also not proof that something is false. We have an imperfect understanding of weather, and while all the conditions indicate that something is likely, it does not mean that something will happen. Also, note that the hurricane estimates for this season were revised downward based upon new, more current, readings in early August.

One more thing to note -- hurricane season isn't in full-swing until mid-August (now). A light June/July may be insignificant compared to what happens during peak season, Aug-Oct. Related to that, maybe a lack of early hurricanes bodes poorly for the rest of the season -- there is a lot of energy yet to be dissipated.

Re:wishing for news

[tlhIngan]

If the writeup is correct, however, we could get some awesome Northern Lights. The negative repercussions would most likely be limited to fleeting disruptions in some radio traffic. Some phone calls and television feeds may have momentary issues, but even at its worst I doubt all of the doomsday predictions that claim we will arrive back at the stone age from having everything in orbit nuked.

Well, not everything will be nuked - only the less protected satellites (either by design, or through age and/or collisions with micrometeorites/space debris). Rad hard stuff only lasts so long after the main shielding's rendered potentially ineffective. So some TV, radio, GPS etc. will probably be knocked offline, but there are always backups to those.

Potentially more devestating would be power outages - these particles wreak havoc on the magnetosphere, and could induce severe currents in long haul power lines as magnetic induction induces current flows that trip protective breakers. (The Earth's magnetic field, weak as it is, being modified by the solar storms can induce significant currents over long enough stretches of wire). Source - http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/eiskappenman.html and http://www.spacew.com/gic/index.html

Given the fragile state of the electric grid, having transmission lines tripping all the time will cause problems. Maybe to the point of the great blackout of 2003.

On the other hand, this may be one of the last times of good sunspot activity without BPL interfering with worldwide communications, so as a ham, it could be the last time to enjoy it! (High sunspot activity also increases the ionosphere and makes long-range communications easier. Good sunspot activity can raise the frequency into the low VHF range).

Re:wishing for news

[bluprint]

but the fact that the science is imperfect does not warrant discounting these observations altogether.

But to the parent's point, it may indeed warrant discounting predictions.

Re:wishing for news

[KlomDark]

What?? 85 degrees? That's actually cool for August. Unless you're talking about some Midwest other than the one I live in (Nebraska), where we're usually floating near 100 this time of the year. We had a couple of 104 degree days in late July, but other than that, it's a cool day.

Also, here in Omaha, we're like 4 inches above normal rainfall. There have been heavy rains here around 7 of the last 14 days.

Not that I don't think we should get away from the coal-fired plants, as they put a lot more crap (including radioactive crap) in the air every year than a couple of nuclear bombs. No wonder smoking is down but lung cancer is up.

Cool

[FlyByPC]

I, for one, welcome our thermonuclear neighbor's unruliness. (The last time it acted up, we got to see the aurora here in Virginia -- which is VERY rare at this latitude!)

somewhere out there

[Anonymous Coward]

somewhere out there, democrat/republican thinktanks are thinking of ways to tweak this to say it proves/debunks that global warming exists.

In the words of Jon Stewart..

[Rob T Firefly]

..Sun ANGRY! Sun KILL!!

What?

[Red Flayer]

Trivia: The coordinates of the July 31st sunspot were 65 W, 13 S. It if had popped up at those coordinates on Earth, it would have been in Bolivia, making it a "South American" sunspot.

Seeing that longitudinal zero is completely arbitrary (both for Earth and Sol), I find this statement to be laughable.

If this sunspot had popped up at those coordinates on Earth, I think we'd actually all be dead, or at least severely discomforted.

Re:What?

[harrkev]

Seeing that longitudinal zero is completely arbitrary (both for Earth and Sol)

At least for earth, there is a physical stop that you can point your finger at and say "that is longitude zero". For the sun, how the heck do you measure longitude on a sphere with no permanent features?

Re:What?

[Red Flayer]

For the sun, how the heck do you measure longitude on a sphere with no permanent features?

No permanent features -- but there are periodic relative positions than can be used to assign longitude. The easiest one, of course, would be the relative position of the Earth. Since we know the Earth's orbit, we can just use trig, along with the date and time, to determine longitude on the sun.

Yes, it's not direct observation, but it works -- and it's no less arbitrary that Greenwich being Earth longitude zero.

Re:Waiting

[Jon Luckey]

*cough*

Beat you by five minutes =)

Yeah, because it took me more than 5 to RTFM and read the posted comments then post myself.

After posting I get a new refresh of the article. Crap, a couple other people make comments along the same lines, and slashdot doesn't let you cancel a comment.

So I get a redundent mod.

Wish the durn moderators would take the Nyquist Sampling Theorem into account befor modding.

And I bet this comment if more than 5 minutes after you coughed too. :)

Interesting, but cycle 24 prediction may be wrong.

[Anonymous Coward]

There are a number of sunspot predictions for cycle 24 that call for the weakest (ie. least stormy) sunspot cycle in 100 years. The method predicting a stromy cycle 24 is a new theory and has only been correlated against past cycles. It's predictive value hasn't been demonstrated yet. On the other hand, the precursor method has been used for at least one cycle already. Only time will tell. One of the latest reports is at the address below:

http://www.leif.org/research/Polar%20Fields%20and% 20Cycle%2024.pdf

As to the hurricanes

[WindBourne]

Well, you may wish to read up on Dr. Grey's site. He is the gentleman who was able to start the hurricane prediction by noticing a tie to just a few indicators. First off, overall, he has quite a few good years of predicting the storms. 2'nd, he believes that we will see more intense hurricanes. 3'rd, he does NOT believe that it will occur due to global warming, just due to cycles. Finally, a season that has started like this is a bit worrisome, because it does not match predictions that have been rather accurate for several decades now. So, the question is, is this just an anomoly or is there a new player in the prediction factors? Perhaps one that has not been noticed for 3 decades? Or perhaps much longer.

At any rate, if this season continues being this far out of whack, then I suspect that the meterologist such as Dr. Grey and others will be very interested in what is going on.

great news!

[scharkalvin]

Maybe 10 meters will open up for DX again.

Re:how do they *know*?

[exp(pi*sqrt(163))]

You can 'see' polarity of sunspots almost directly. In fact, here are some pictures. You can read the strength of the magnetic field by looking how the energy levels of atoms are modified. As an electron falls from one level to another it emits electromagnetic radiation with an energy corresponding to the difference. In particular, certain configurations of atoms which are normally indistinguishable, because the difference between them is simply that electron spins have been flipped, become distinct in the presence of magnetic fields, because a magentic field causes one or other energy level to be 'preferred'. This modifies the frequencies of the emitted radiation which we can then observe. This is known as Zeeman splitting. Additionally, we can read off the polarity of the fields from the polarisation of the radiation.

Re:It *has* been a big year for hurricanes

[Griffinart]

8 named storms so far in the Pacific. By this time last year there had been 8 named storms as well. 7 by this time next week in 2004, 10 named storms by the end of august 2003, 8 by the end of august 2002. Hardly anything more frequent that average. In the Atlantic, on the other hand, we've had 3 named storms so far, none were hurricanes, and they think its going to remain quiet for the next couple of weeks. By then end of August last year we had 12 named storms including Katrina. The Atlantic averages 12 to 16 named storms a year. At this years rate, we're looking at a very quiet year, the global amount of storms will still be significantly down from average.

Re:It *has* been a big year for hurricanes

[fdiskne1]

At this years rate, we're looking at a very quiet year, the global amount of storms will still be significantly down from average.

And they will blame the lack of storms on the climate change brought about by global warming.