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PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011
eldavojohn writes "The Yankee Group (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"
My own prediction was that Wii will kick ass, at least in terms of units and games sold. But I suppose if a PS3 costs the same as 3-5 Wii's, Nintendo would have to sell 3-5 for every 1 PS3 to match their market share by the Yankee group's measure. Sort of like how Linux has a very low market share when measured by operating system license revenue.
The "article" is pretty light on details. My guess is that they are looking to the past to forecast the future. While not a bad strategy I can't see that leading to much accuracy in the current scenario.
In the past, the PS2 was in a class by itself (after destroying the Dreamcast). For a long time it was THE console to have, and by the time the others (GC and XBox) came into play it was too well entrenched and had a huge library of games.
Now it will be competing with the XBox 360 (say what you want about it, but at least it's out already) and a newly released Wii. Unless there's a lot more going on than I'm aware of, I can't see how it will dominate for the next 5 years when:
- it's entering a market already saturated with similar hardware specs (even if slightly weaker)
- price entry
Had they beaten the 360 and Wii to market, then I could see it. But this isn't the past.
Well, there we go. Proof that those so-called "expert/analysts" don't know anything aside from making shocking statistics to grab headlines.
I predict about 70% for the Wii, 30% for the Xbox 360 and 15% for the PS3. I know it adds up to more than 100% but given all those "Xbox 360 + Wii = PS3" comments we've all heard so far, I think it's realistic.
As for the Wii getting 70%? Well, don't forget that we can look at the Nintendo DS for proof: Nintendo are grabbing a lot of non-gamers and the Wii shouldn't be any different. A lot of so-called "hardcore gamers" will go for the Xbox 360 and/or the PS3, but they're only a tiny % of the general population.
It doesn't look like they're taking cost or popular opinion into account.
Wii: $199, with hopefully revolutionary must-have controller mechanism.
Controller fad might die off, but it will still be fun to use. Lots of games.
Weaker hardware allows cheap cost. Price is at the point where you can pick it up without thinking if theres a game that appeals. Free online play. Ideal christmas present for children too - cheap, and ideal for secondary TVs in the house rather than the main HDTV.
360: $299 - $399
PS£: $499 - $599
Both of these are 'stop and think' purchases for anyone. You really have to justify the purchase.
Of course, the price will come down over time for both of these - the PS3 will drop quite drastically once BluRay drives become cheaper to make, say around 2008. There'll probably be price parity by the end of 2008, Microsoft might have moved to HD-DVD inside the console. The Wii will be cheaper too, and fun games can spread like a fever like Guitar Hero has in my circle of friends. And Nintendo is popular because of the DS.
At a time when people are tightening their purses and wallets because of higher cost of living, a high priced console is not the ideal product. Some games might be so 'must have' that a lot of consoles will sell, but I really do think that it will be 40-30-30 this time around - which wins is in the air right now.
Nevermind that Sony is not popular right now, and can't do anything right.
While the nerd crowd here can look at the Wii (uh, that name...) and be pleased with the innovative interface, the low price, the focus on gameplay over graphics and yes, substance... this isn't how the marketing will flow.
Sony will drive dumptrucks of money to ad agencies all over the planet. It will be like a blitzkrieg of PS3 as we approach the launch; I wouldn't be surprised if they spent $100 million on ads alone. Microsoft will counter, having anticipated this for years, and probably roll out their own add-on HD drive as well - more marketing insanity to follow.
Nintendo will of course do their own marketing push, but don't be surprised if you hate the approach they take. Big N is after 'the rest of us', the non-gamer, and will appropriately tailor their messaging to this end. That means, more girls, more moms, more people who do not typically play video games. Yes, there will be Metroid and a few others to keep the original fans happy. But it will not be the juggernaut that Sony and MS will unleash. Its just not the same market anymore.
I like the Wii but I think that this go-round they only have a shot at 2nd place, at best. The videogame market has eclipsed the filmmaking industry for several years now, and the people who put it there are you guys, buying the kind of games you like. That's where most of the money is. Nintendo is gambling big time with this new machine; they want to create a new segment of the market, sort of like the iPod did. Good for them. But this is a risky strategy. Sony and Microsoft are taking the safe route, MS the safest of all.
It may not make for great headlines to the crusty gamer crowd here who appreciates Nintendo's willingness to break the mold, but for general 'consumption' I acutally tend to agree with the market analysis of FTA. For different reasons than they stated.
If Jesus wants me it knows where to find me.
should read "PS2 to lead through 2011". That is my armchair prediction anyway. Microsoft has a nice niche market for themselves but cannot seem to grow. Nintendo will carve out a potentially bigger niche, and Sony will shoot themselves in the foot, but honestly I don't think that any of the next gens will reach anywhere near the market penetration of the playstation 2.
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When you surround yourself with people who think exactly like you, it's hard to see that other people think differently. I am not saying that this guy is right (I think he is wrong). But when you come on Slashdot, don't expect people to counter you on any positive statement on Linux, Macs, or Nintendo. It gives the illusion that everybody out there is just like you and will be buying a Wii first. This is not true. Nintendo still has the kiddy image. While that doesn't matter to a slashdotter, it matters to others. The PS3 will be seen as the more mature console and will thus appeal to the teen/early 20s crowd. It is funny to read slashdot posts that are already claiming victory for the Wii when it isn't out yet. Maybe I have out grown being excited over things. I will wait unitl it is out. Wait until the bugs have been ironed out. Wait until a price drop...then decide what I will purchase. It seems like most people on here are terrible consumers...that drool over things that don't exist yet. While Nintendo does have a good reputation, they have made plenty of stupid mistakes in the past to warrant caution. Patience is a virtue.
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Nintendo had the long lines at E3 to try out the Wii-mote. We've all seen the videos of everyone playing with it and saying it was cool, fun, etc. Unlike yourself, there seemed to be far MORE people "want[ing] to wave that around" than there were to wanting to play 360 or PS3 demos.
to have an extremely profitable console platform that they release most of the A-List titles on. Sega tried this with the Saturn. They ignored developers (actually, they treated them like dirt) and pushed their first party titles to the detriment of 3rd party (in the States, this didn't happen in Japan). It killed the console. Nintendo pulled if off though. To be fair, they didn't do it by being jerks to their 3rd parties, they just can't get too many A-List 3rd parties since there's not enough room to manuever in the Gamecube's install base. Still, the Big N doesn't really care about raw market share, because they can be pretty damn sure that all or most of that 16 percent will buy their software. Sega wanted that, and I guess they got it, but the videogame market was smaller and their share closer to 2% or 3% by the time all was said and done.
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Spoken like a man who hasn't investigated the Wii at all.
The Wii remote will be a fad - who honestly wants to wave that around: Yeah, it really looks like he's really waving it around. Oh wait, it's small wrist movements which controls the action, not huge motions.
good luck using it in FPS games: Yeah, nobody liked the controls on Metroid Prime 3.
Whether or not you like it, marketing and hype is what sells consoles. I don't see any Wii hype anywhere but on Digg and Slashdot. Sorry.: Where's the PS3 hype? I see nothing in mainstream media and nothing but negativity from the online media. Where's the X360 hype? I haven't seen any since their launch a year ago. I also haven't seen any compelling reason to buy an Xbox 360 aside from maybe Xbox Live Arcade games (which I played 10 years ago)
Mario sux0rs to me - but Mom or the kid next door can have fun with it if they want: I'm honestly very sorry that you have a complex which prevents you from enjoying video games which are fun because you're afraid they are too "kiddy". If it's any consolation, you'll grow out of that once you graduate 9th grade.
Then again, I guess I shouldn't expect too much out of a user named "XpL1CiT". Have fun in High School kid.