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SpaceX, Rocketplane Kistler Win NASA Competition
An anonymous reader writes "Two emerging space companies have won a NASA competition to provide low cost commercial transport to the International Space Station. SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, is developing its two-stage reusable Falcon 9 launch vehicle and Dragon spacecraft, but it is making changes after the loss of Falcon 1 during its maiden launch. Rocketplane Kistler's K-1 is a two-stage reusable launch vehicle that has been in development for over a decade. Both companies represent a departure from business as usual at NASA. Boeing and Lockheed Martin are the largest companies in the aerospace industry and win most NASA contracts."
...the Venusian drivers with beaded seat cushions.
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The cost per kg has little meaning for the Space Shuttle since the marginal cost per launch is only $250 million per launch (which IIRC puts it around $5,000 per kg for ~50,000 kg to orbit). But the Shuttle also has a $5 billion per year fixed cost whether it launches or not. FWIW, if NASA uses commercial launchers by the launch then they don't have to pay the fixed costs. I seem to recall that SpaceX's Falcon I goal was $5,000 per kg and the Falcon V goal was $1,500 per kg (ie, the customer pays that much, and SpaceX in theory makes a profit). But I have no idea how close SpaceX will come to meeting those goals particularly since they have yet to successfully launch the Falcon I. The Russians' Protons have a cost per kg around $3,000 to $4,000 per kg, IIRC.
Someone who actually has a handle on the prices, please correct me.The SpaceX "Dragon" capsule will launch on the Falcon 9 launcher, not the Falcon 1 which costs $6 million and change.
The Falcon 9 list price (see http://www.spacex.com/falcon_overview.php ) is $27 million for the basic 3.6 meter diameter fairing. For that price, you get around 9 tons (9,300 kg) lifted to low earth orbit, based on the announced specifications.
I am glad to see that they got one of the contracts. This is good for the industry. So is the Rocketplane Kistler thing, sort of, but there's already been $500 million spent on the Kistler vehicle and it's only half-built, so I have my worries about that one...
Your mileage may vary, they haven't built a Falcon 9 yet or successfully launched a Falcon 1 yet, etc.
Disclaimer: my company was a COTS phase 1 competitor, proposing to launch on a Falcon 9, which SpaceX was cheerfully interested in selling me despite their own Dragon project.
Invest in the the people who already exist on the planet, you will get a much better return!
While this is true, I question how much good external investment can really do.
I think there's something very wrong when the number one way to improve a significant fraction of the world's population (my take, one third to half of the global population) is to get them an airline ticket and a work visa somewhere in the developed world. At one time, the developed world started with pretty much the same primitive culture that everyone had. But they turned that into the advanced societies that are leading the way in human endeavors like space development.
The Gates Foundation targets low lying fruit like treatable but widespread diseases and parasites because in part you don't need a functioning society to fix the problem. Education and some basic infrastructure (like water wells) can be accomplished in such an environment. But ultimately, you need a system of reasonable laws, fairly applied and a democratic process for selecting the local governments, the lawmakers, and the heads of state. I think that more than anything else is what seperates the developed world from everyone else.
Once you have this basic structure, the society can heal itself and invest in its citizens and infrastructure. But without it, you are limited to how you can invest in citizens of this society.
Here's where I'm going with this. Chosing between space development/exploitation and human investment is a false dilemma. Any society where you can measurably improve someone's life and value has social and legal infrastructure that will naturally encourage investment in those people. The places that still hurt are places external sources have limited effect on.
Space development is important for several reasons. First, it allows access to a vast amount of resources. There is far more mass, energy, and space in the Solar System than there is on Earth. Much of the technology developed in space will have tremendous value on Earth. For example, I think the science of arcologies will be greatly advanced by space settlements. Space settlements will have to recycle resources at a level of efficiency unimaginable on Earth.It's worth mentioning, however, that by the time the COTS participants are ready to demo, NASA will be ready to retire the shuttle, and still be four years short of being ready with the CEV, so the shuttle cost is somewhat irrelevant, especially in view of it's different capabilities. Their comparable options would be the Boeing Delta IV and Lockheed Atlas V EELV's, which aren't nor are they planned to be man-rated and cost over $100 million per vehicle, or the Russian Soyuz and Progress capsules. I've read that the Soyuz cost about $70 million per launch, in equivalent US dollars. The Progress are a little cheaper.
Your SpaceX costs are correct, or nearly so. Right now the Falcon 9 is slated to cost between $27 and $35 million per launch. However, Musk has stated that the Falcon 9 is to be reusable, so I suspect that figure assumes that plan works out. Also, that number does not include the cost of the Dragon capsule, which I suspect will run anywhere from $5 and $20 million more.
Figures on the cost per shuttle flight range from $55 million, which is how much it costs to do between flight maintenance, preparation, training, and actually operate the mission, up to about $1.1 billion, if you include every single penny spent ever spent on the shuttle program, including R&D (and probably related projects that were killed like the fly-back boosters) and assume no more flights will be made.
Everyone go take a look at the illustrations in the article if you haven't. That Dragon looks really cramped when you squeeze 7 people into it. Worse than flying coach on Southwest. I know the space shuttle typically orbits for about 2 days before docking with the ISS. I hope that's just a fuel saving measure, because I couldn't imagine spending more than 6 hours in that position.
Right now the Falcon 9 is slated to cost between $27 and $35 million per launch. However, Musk has stated that the Falcon 9 is to be reusable, so I suspect that figure assumes that plan works out.
Actually, Musk has stated the opposite -- the current price assumes that they would be unable to successfully reuse any of the components, and that the price would come down more if it turned out they were able to reuse components effectively.
From here:
Falcon 5 and Falcon 9 will be the world's first launch vehicles where all stages are designed for reuse. The Falcon 1 has a reusable first stage, but an expendable upper stage. Reuse is not factored into launch prices. When the economics of stage recovery and checkout are fully understood, SpaceX will make further reductions in launch prices.