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What Could YouTube Be Worth?
An anonymous reader writes "C|Net has a story about the possible cost of YouTube. Sony just paid $65 Million for small-time videosharing outfit 'Grouper'. That site has around 1% of the videosharing market. The article asks, at that price, what might YouTube's 43% be worth?" From the article: "Entertainment analysts have predicted in recent weeks that sites with large followings would command a high price. The Sony deal proved them right. But while the Grouper deal helped establish a benchmark, there is still plenty of confusion about the fair value of online video companies. This is because the typical metrics for measuring a company appear to have gone out the window--just like they did during the bubble years of the late 1990s."
Copyright owners are finally starting to sue YouTube. Interestingly enough they are using the Grokster ruling, that "companies could be liable if they were found to induce the infringement in some manner."
Their terms of use say that users are responsible for any content posted. However, if I had a copyright on something posted I'd rather sue the company worth possibly billions than go through the hassle of hunting down a user.
I haven't really heard about too much of this, so they are probably doing a pretty good job of taking down offending clips, but when lawyers smell money in the water, look out.
//TODO: Insert catchy phrase
I think I should remind everyone that pornotube has 99% gay (male) content.
You know, when the Internet was invented, people said it would be the end of libraries. There was the idea that you could take every book, magazine, journal, newspaper, etc. ever printed and put it online. And what a grand idea that would be. Then the intellectual property barons came out and put a quick end to that dream. It's sad, really, when you think of what the Internet could have been. A place where all information could be free, and information could transcend the barriers of distance, culture, politics, even language. Instead, everyone came to the party with their hand out, concerned with how they can get the biggest slice of the pie. If this mentality had existed 800 years ago, we'd still be in the dark ages. It would be nice if I could live to see the beginning of the next renaissence.
-Arthur
Cave ne ante ullas catapultas ambules
It's WAY TOO EASY to copy what youtube is doing.
People said the same thing about Ebay.
The thing is, while it may be easy to copy the site, what's not so easy is getting people to care. The reason why sites like Ebay and YouTube stay popular over the long-term (and that is my prediction about YouTube - it's only going to get bigger) is that it is a self-sustaining marketplace. In Ebay's case, sellers go where the buyers are, and buyers go where the sellers are. In YouTube's case, same thing - video posters go where the viewers are, and the viewers go where those posting the most video are.
People spend hours just surfing around video there, searching for various things. You can find *anything* on YouTube - it's not just about home movies. I just found David Lynch's short-lived comedy series "On the Air" there a day ago, for example - this is a show I *never* thought I'd see again. I see stuff like this all the time there, and I rarely see similar things elsewhere. It's gotten to the point where if you want to find some piece of video, no matter how obscure, you just immediately go to YouTube because you know it's there. Why even bother with anywhere else?
Of course, YouTube has some potential pitfalls, but then so does all of its competitors. Most of what's on the site is infringing copyright. They have ridiculous bandwidth costs. And the quality is not very good. So it is possible they could fall, but if they do, it won't be because some competitor copied their site and did X thing a little bit better. They're going to have to implode of their own accord or through some legal matter in order to turn over the reigns.
or http://pornotube.com/ for that matter.
No one will buy YouTube because the company that buys them will be the instant winner of hundreds or possibly thousands of copyright lawsuits. Right now there is basically no incentive to sue YouTube because you can't extract much cash from them. But what if Google/Ebay/Yahoo owned YouTube? Well, now you have a nearly bottomless well of cash to go after, and since the offenses would be so trivial to prove, its free money.
Any company with the cash to buy YouTube is going to decide in the long run it isn't worth it.