Iranian Heavy Water Nuke Plant Goes Online Today

avtchillsboro writes "According to an article in the NYT, an Iranian heavy water nuke plant goes online today. From the article: 'An Iranian plant that produces heavy water officially went into operation on Saturday, despite U.N. demands that Tehran stop the activity because it can be used to develop a nuclear bomb. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated the plant, which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes. The announcement comes days before Thursday's U.N. deadline for Iran to stop uranium enrichment — which also can be used to create nuclear weapons — or face economic and political sanctions.'"

Comments

The problem is not the bomb itself

[mangu]

The real problem is that Iran is not letting international inspectors see their installations. Remember what happened to Iraq in a similar case?

Re:The problem is not the bomb itself

[Ritz_Just_Ritz]

I think they're just goading the Israelis to take out the facility, gain more support in the Arab world, and rid themselves of the problem while they secretly create a more clandestine program.

Re:The problem is not the bomb itself

[Kadin2048]

The problem in this case is that unlike a few years back with Iraq, the Iranians have this time created such a well-timed diversion (Lebanon) that the Israelis aren't in much of a position for a repeat performance of 1981. Or at least, they're in a worse position. For them to destroy the plant in Iran would almost certainly guarantee that they'd receive the blame for providing the spark to reignite hostilities on the northern border, and I'm not sure if they have the stomach for that at the moment.

The situation in Iraq makes any US action that might be perceived as risking our troops a political impossibility; and the Europeans, Russians, and Chinese aren't interested in doing anything about Iran's nuclear ambitions in general, because they know they won't be the first targets of any weapons they produce.

Thus, the overall stage seems set for Tehran to continue as long and as far as they can: with Israel tied up because of Lebanon and the US pinned due to Iraq, there's no reason not to go for the bomb.

Unless there's a major shift in attitude and pressure, I think it's really only a matter of time before Iran goes nuclear; already a pariah state, they have little to lose and much to gain. And once they have it, it seems to be only a further interlude before it's used on the obvious target, Israel, whether directly or by proxy.

The real question is, what happens then?

Re:The problem is not the bomb itself

[Savage-Rabbit]

Don't underestimate Israel's ability to do what they feel is neccessary to keep themselves safe.

Don't under estimate the ability of the Iranians to defend them selves. I'm no fan of the Iranian regime but don't assume that just because they are Islamic fundamentalists they must also be idiots. These people have managed to keep US made F-14 jets in full use with spare parts made in Iran (or procured from corrupt sources in the US military) for over 20 years. They have even upgraded and re-manufactured significant amount of the military gear they got from the Americans prior to the revolution (and let's not forget all the toys they got from President Reagan during the Iran-Contra scandal). The Iranian military leadership was trained US instructors some of whom also trained the Israelis. They have also forged some very cozy relationships with Russia and more importantly China who supplies them with high-tech weapons some of whom, ironically enough, incorporate technology that is Israeli in origin.

Re:The problem is not the bomb itself

[ph1ll]

Am I the only Westerner who thinks that Iran getting nuclear weapons is no bad thing?

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) is what prevented the Cold War from warming up. It might take the current crisis in the Middle East off the boil as well.

Consider this:

• They've already had the West topple their democratically elected government before. This was pure and simple an attempt by us to get our greedy mitts on their oil (google for Operation Ajax).
• The Iranians (perhaps rightly) fear unprovoked aggression from America. It's now clear that the claims of Weapons of Mass Destruction used in the current Iraq campaign were just propaganda to allow the invasion of an oil-rich nation. Why should Iran not think we want to do the same thing again?
• The US was sabre rattling against Iran by calling it part of the comically titled "Axis of Evil" even when the moderate Mohammad Khatami was president (and, yes, Iran is. at least nominally, a democracy...)
• All the horror expressed in the America media about oil-rich Iran's claimed civilian programme sounds somewhat hollow when their so-called fellow Axis-of-Evil partner North Korea has happily admitted to a military nuclear programme (total oil reserves of North Korea in millions of barrels: 0).
• Israel already has them (google for Mordechai Vanunu who served 18 years in an Israeli prison for leaking information about their nuclear programme to the British Press. Awfully long sentence if the programme didn't exist, don't you think...?) .

For this last reason, president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's beligerent stance towards Israel is largely regarded as rhetoric. Afterall, Mutually Assured Destruction is, well, mutual.

I for one think Iran having nuclear weapons will make us stop taking ill-advised decisions when it comes to meddling in the affairs of small, oil-rich countries.

Re:The problem is not the bomb itself

[meringuoid]

Saddam was selling oil way to cheap, so we didn't like him.

You grossly oversimplify; actually, the situation was a lot more complex than that. Saddam was selling oil way too cheap, in euros, to the French. So we didn't like him.

Re:The IRANIANS created Lebanon?

[CRCulver]

It's possible-- hardly proven, but possible-- that Iran was in some way involved in the Hezbollah actions that spurred Israel into starting the brief Lebanon war.

It's totally proven. Iran openly admits that it provides Hezbollah with weapons. It's openly admitted that for over two decades. I agree with the rest of your post, that Iran didn't especially time anything, but Hezbollah is a wing of the Iranian administration.